From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/28/15

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 651,194 tons expecting 350-550,000 tons
  • Corn at 809,383 tons expecting  750-900,000 tons
  • Beans at 430,493 tons expecting 550-850,000 tons

Veg Oil conference in India today through Wednesday

Veg oil analyst Thomas Mielke comments

  • Expects Malaysia’s September palm oil production to be lower than August production
  • El Nino to cut palm oil production growth by 50% in 2016
  • Expects US soybean futures to make a new contract low in the next five weeks due to oversupply
  • India farmers likely to shift from rapeseed to pulses in upcoming winter season.

Veg oil analyst GG Patel and Nihil Research Co. comments

  • India’s ’15 / 16 edible oil imports estimated at 14.85 MMT (record) up 6.6% from a year ago
  • India’s ‘15/16 palm oil imports estimated at 9.6 MMT (record) up 6.2% from a year ago
  • India’s ‘15/16 bean oil imports estimated at 3.55 MMT (record) up 18% from a year ago
  • India’s ‘15/16 edible oil consumption estimated at 21.12 MMT up 6% from year ago  

Mexico seeking corn

Egypt seeking corn

Some much need rains fell in the Ukraine and Russia over the weekend.

Australia still dry

Heavy rains in Brazil over weekend seen damaging their wheat crop  

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn sold 6,000
  • Beans sold 7,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 6,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 16-23% complete

o   Bean harvest 14-22% complete

o   Wheat planting 31-38% complete

  • Position day for October soymeal and bean oil is tomorrow. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins tomorrow. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • USDA quarterly grain stocks report comes out Wednesday at 11 am CST . See below for estimates for USDA report
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday. China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Census crush data comes out on Thursday after being discontinued four years ago. The crush data will cover May-August crush. Report comes out at 2 pm CST Thursday
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST. Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 25.1 MMT vs. August estimate of 24.625 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 29.419

o   Durum average estimate 4.7 MMT vs. August estimate of 4.467 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 5.1927 MMT

o   Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT vs. August estimate of 13.343 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 16.41 MMT

o   Oats average estimate 3.4 MMT vs. August estimate of 3.31 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 2.979

o   Barley average estimate 7.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 7.305 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 7.119 MMT

o   Corn average estimate 12.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 12.312 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 11.4868 MMT

o   Beans average estimate 5.8 MMT vs. August estimate of 5.8569 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 6.0486 MMT

Estimates for Wednesday’s report

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of September 1st

  • Wheat – (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.149 BB , range of estimates are 1.987-2.285 BB, June 1st wheat stocks were .753 BB and September 1 2014 wheat stocks were 1.907 BB
  • Corn – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.739 BB , range of estimates are 1.647-1.850 BB, June 1st corn stocks were 4.447 BB and September 1 2014 corn stocks were 1.232 BB
  • Beans – (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate .205 BB , range of estimates are .165-.250 BB , June 1st bean stocks were .625 BB and September 1 2014 bean stocks were .092 BB

Estimates for US 2015 wheat production

  • All wheat production – (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.133 BB, range of estimates are 2.105-2.160. USDA August estimate was 2.136 BB and US 2014 all wheat production was 2.026 BB
  • All winter wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.430 BB, range of estimates are 1.406-1.447 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.438 BB and US 2014 all winter wheat production was 1.378 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .855 BB, range of estimates are .845-.870 BB. USDA August estimate was .856 BB and US 2014 hard red winter wheat production was .738 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .383 BB, range of estimates are .360-.393 BB. USDA August estimate was .389 BB and US 2014 soft red winter wheat production was .455 BB.
  • White winter wheat production – (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate .192 BB, range of estimates are .185-.195 BB. USDA August estimate was .193 BB and US 2014 white winter wheat production was .184 BB
  • Other spring wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .625 BB, range of estimates are .615-.636 BB. USDA August estimate was .621 BB and US 2014 other spring wheat production was .595 BB
  • Durum wheat production – (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .079 BB, range of estimates are .075-.082 BB. USDA August estimate was .077 BB and US 2014 durum wheat production was .053 BB

Option players:

  • Marex sold 500 Nov bean 900-930 call spreads at 7 ¾
  • Rosenthal bought 500 Nov bean 900-930 call spreads at 6 ¾
  • Rand bought 800 Nov bean 850 puts at 7 7/8-8 tied to Nov futures at 886
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Dec corn 480 calls at ¾
  • Macquarie sold 1,000 Dec corn 430 calls at 4 1/8
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 400 calls at 12 ¾
  • EDF Mann bought 1,500 Nov corn 370 puts at 5 ½ tied to Dec futures at 386
  • ICAP bought 2,000 Dec corn 360 puts at 5 5/8
  • New Edge bought 1,000 Dec wheat 490 – 470 put spreads at 6 ¾ tied to Dec futures at 506
  • Drax bought 500 Dec wheat 490 puts and sold 500 March 450 puts at 5 ½ debit tied to Dec futures at 506
  • FI bought 2,000 Dec meal 290-270 put spreads at 3.00 tied to Dec futures at 309.00
  • FC Stone bought 1,000 Dec meal 270-290 put spreads at 3.40 tied to Dec futures at 306.50
  • FI bought 500 March meal 340 C / 270 P combos at .75 tied to March futures at 304.00
  • EDF Mann bought 400 July bean oil 2650 puts at 120.

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

X15 385 23.75 / 24.50 29.50%

Z15 385 31.25 / 32.25 27.00%

F16 400 39 / 40 25.25%

H16 400 50.50 / 51.50 25.50%

K16 400 59.50 / 60.50 25.00%

N16 400 59.50 / 60.50 25.00%

Z16 410 77.50 / 79 22.50%

Beans:

X15 880 40 / 42 22.00%

Z15 880 53 / 55 20.25%

F16 880 64 / 66 19.00%

H16 880 83 / 85 19.00%

K16 880 94 / 97 18.00%

N16 880 107 / 111 17.75%

U16 880 116 / 121 17.75%

X16 880 125 / 130 17.50%

Wheat:

X15 510 30.50 / 31 28.00%

Z15 510 41.50 / 42.50 26.75%

H16 510 64 / 65.50 25.25%

K16 520 78.50 / 80.50 25.25%

N16 520 90 / 92 25.75%

KC Wheat:

X15 500 29.50 31.50 28.50%

Z15 500 38.50 / 40.50 25.50%

H16 510 63 / 65 25.00%

K16 520 76.50 / 78.50 25.00%

N16 530 89.50 / 91.50 24.75%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 520 37 / 40 23.50%

H16 540 59 / 63 23.50%

K16 540 71 / 77 23.25%

N16 560 86 / 92 24.00%

Meal:

X15 305 15.5 / 16.5 25.00%

Z15 300 21.5 / 22.5 23.75%

F16 300 26.0 / 27.0 22.50%

H16 300 31.5 / 32.5 21.25%

K16 300 34.5 / 36.5 19.75%

N16 300 38.5 / 40.5 19.25%

Q16 300 40.0 / 42.0 19.00%

U16 300 41.0 / 44.0 18.00%

V16 300 41.0 / 44.0 17.75%

Z16 300 43.0 / 46.0 17.50%

Bean oil:

X15 27.5 145 / 165 27.00%

Z15 27.5 210 / 230 26.25%

F16 28.0 250 / 280 24.50%

H16 28.0 300 / 330 22.50%

K16 28.0 340 / 380 21.50%

N16 28.0 380 / 420 20.75%

Q16 28.0 390 / 430 20.25%

U16 28.0 410 / 450 20.00%

V16 28.0 410 / 460 19.50%

Z16 28.0 440 / 490 19.25%

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE