From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/24/15

Chinese trade delegation in Iowa today signed deals to buy 13.18 MMT of US soybeans for ‘15/16 and ‘16/17 shipment . Analysts were expecting China to sign deals for up to 10.0 MMT of US beans.

Ag Canada  estimated Canadian ‘15/16 wheat crop at 24.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 27.1 MMT

Ag Canada estimated Canadian ‘15/16 canola crop at 13.3 MMT vs. previous estimate 14.3 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global wheat crop at 727 MMT vs. previous estimate of 720 MMT

  • Estimated EU’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 155.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 151.9 MMT
  • Estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 60.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59.0 MMT
  • Estimated China’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 129.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 127.5 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global corn crop at 967 MMT vs. previous estimate of 966 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global grain ending stocks at 456.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 447.0 MMT

Abitrigo (Brazilian wheat industry group) estimated Brazil’s 2015 wheat imports at 5.0 MMT vs. 2014 imports of 5.78 MMT

Concerns about India’s soybean crop continue.

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +106 BCF , expecting +98 BCF

China’s to auction corn from reserves tomorrow. China auctioning total of 5.0 MMT of corn today and tomorrow.

October options expire tomorrow.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 2,000
  • Beans bought 5,000
  • Meal even
  • Bean oil bought 5,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • US Central Bank Chairwoman to speak tonight on inflation and policy.
  • Malaysian and Indonesian markets opened tomorrow after being closed today for holiday.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out tomorrow with their Malaysian Sept 1-25 palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

Option players:

Corn:

JPM bot 1000 X 355 puts

Drax sold 1000 H 400-420 call spreads

Drax sold 1000 Z 400-430 call spreads

Macquarie bot 1000 Z 410-430 call spreads

ICAP bot 2500 X 385 calls/sold 2500 V 385 calls

Beans:

RJO bot 2000 F 800 puts/bot 400 SF

ICAP bot 2000 X 860 puts/sold 2000 F 800 puts/bot 360 SX/sold 360 SF

FI sold 800 X 840 puts/bot 800 X 900 calls/sold 448 SX

FI sold 600 F 960 calls/bot 90 SF

RJO bot 500 F 800 puts

FI sold 500 F 960 calls

Drax bot 400 K 840 puts/sold 800 K 760 puts/sold 400 K 1000 calls

RJO bit 500 V 860 puts

ABN bot 500 X 860 puts/sold 500 X 840 puts/sold 500 X 810 puts

Macquarie bot 500 F 920 calls/sold 500 X 820 puts/sold 140 SF/sold 90 SX

Wheat:

Man bot 750 X 520 calls/sold 286 WZ

Man bot 500 Z 520 calls/sold 210 WZ

ICAP sold 500 Z 540 calls

JPM bot 400 Z 490 puts/sold 400 Z 520 calls

Meal:

FI bot 500 X 300-320 call spreads

JPM sold 250 X 280 puts

Oil:

FI bot 800 Z 27 ½ calls

RJO sold 250 K 25 puts

FI bot 400X 27 calls/sold 400 Z 30 calls

Man bot 200 H 26 puts/sold 200 H 34 calls

Closing vols and ATM straddles: – October options expire tomorrow on the close

Corn:

V15 380 5 / 6 25.00%

X15 380 23.50 / 24.25 27.25%

Z15 380 30.75 / 31.25 25.75%

H16 390 48.75 / 49.5 24.75%

K16 400 58.50 /  60 24.50%

N16 410 68.50 / 70.50 24.75%

Z16 400 76.5 / 78 22.50%

Beans:

V15 870 11 / 13

X15 870 41 / 43 21.50%

Z15 880 55 / 57 20.00%

F16 880 66 / 68 19.25%

H16 880 84 / 86 19.00%

K16 880 94 / 97 18.00%

N16 880 107 / 111 18.00%

U16 880 117 / 122 17.75%

X16 880 124 / 129 17.50%

Wheat:

V15 500 5 / 8 27.00%

Z15 500 41 / 42 25.75%

H16 510 64.5 / 66 25.00%

K16 510 77 / 79 25.50%

N16 510 87 / 90 25.50%

Meal:

V15 305 5.5 / 6.5

X15 300 16.0 / 17.0 24.25%

Z15 300 22.0 / 23.0 23.75%

F16 300 26.5 / 27.5 22.50%

H16 300 32.0 / 33.0 21.25%

K16 300 35.0 / 37.0 19.75%

N16 300 38.5 / 40.5 19.25%

Q16 300 39.5 / 41.5 18.75%

U16 300 40.0 / 43.0 18.25%

V16 300 41.0 / 44.0 17.75%

Z16 300 43.0 / 46.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

V15 27.0 35 / 55

X15 27.0 145 / 165 25.25%

Z15 27.0 200 / 220 24.50%

F16 28.0 250 / 280 23.50%

H16 28.0 300 / 330 22.25%

K16 28.0 330 / 370 21.25%

N16 28.0 380 / 420 20.75%

Q16 28.0 390 / 430 20.25%

U16 28.0 400 / 450 20.00%

V16 28.0 410 / 460 19.75%

Z16 28.0 440 / 490 19.25%

Crush quotes

               Open                     Closes

Oct         94.0-95.0              94.0-94.5

Dec        93.5-94.0              95.0-95.5

JanDec  89.5-90.5             91.5-92.0

Jan         90.5-91.5              91.5-92.5

Mch       87.0-88.0              87.0-87.5

May       81.0-81.5              81.0-82.0

Jly           79.0-80.0              79.5-80.0

Aug        79.5-81.5              80.0-81.5

Sep        —    – 90.0              —     -90.0

Oct6       70.0-108.0           75.5-108.0

Dec6      85.5-90.0              84.0-88.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE