From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/21/15

Extremely quiet today.

Good US harvest weather over the next week.

Somar said fresh rains to break hot, dry weather over Brazil’s main farm belt

SovEcon estimated Russia’s September grain exports at 4.5 MMT (record) vs. 3.5 MMT in August

MARS estimated EU’s 2015 corn yield at 6.43 TPH vs. previous estimate of 6.40 TPH , down 20.4% from a year ago and down 8.5% from five year average

MARS estimated EU’s 2015 soft wheat yield at 5.81 TPH, unchanged from previous estimate and down 5.4% from a year ago

MARS estimated EU’s 2015 rapeseed yield at 3.25 TPH down 10.2% from a year ago

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Wheat at 604,918 tons expecting 400-600,000 tons
  • Corn at 735,535 tons expecting 700 -850,000 tons
  • Beans at 502,846 tons expecting 350- 500,000 tons

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 6,000
  • Corn bought 8,000
  • Beans bought 5,000
  • Meal bought 500
  • Bean oil bought 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting

o   Corn and soybean good to excellent conditions to be unchanged to up 1% from a week ago

o   Corn harvest expecting 12-15% complete

o   Bean harvest expecting 4-8% complete

o   Winter wheat planting expected to be 17-20% complete

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Flash September PMIs comes out on Wednesday

o   Expecting China’s Sept PMI at 47.5 vs. August PMI of 47.3 , still near 6.5 year lows

Option players:

Corn:

JPM bot 1000 Z 350 puts

JPM bot 1000 H 390 calls/sold 1000 H 370 puts/sold 860 CH

RJO sold 1000 Z 325 puts

ICAP sold 1000 X 390 calls

RJO sold 1000 Z 460 calls

Macquarie sold 1000 Z 500 calls

JPM bot 500 Z 370-340 put spreads

FI bot 700 X 400 calls/sold 700 X 360 puts

FI sold 500 V 380 straddles

FI bot 600 H 430 calls/sold 180 CH

FI bot 400 H 450 calls/sold 80 CH

RJO bot 500 H 410 calls

JPM sold 600 X 390 calls

Beans:

Drax bot 1400 F 940 calls/sold 342 SF

TJM bot 1200 F 840-820 put spreads/sold 1200 F 780-760 put spreads

TJM bot 500 K 1000 calls/sold 250 K 900 calls/bot 20 SK

FCS sold 1000 X 920 calls/bot 160 SX

FI bot 600 F 960 calls/sold 96 SF

Wheat:

ICAP bot 1500 Z 500 calls/sold 690 WZ

ICAP bot 1100 Z 500 calls/sold 528 WZ

ICAP bot 500 Z 490 puts/bot 240 WZ

FI bot 500 X 450-430 put spreads

RJO sold 600 Z 530 calls/bot 144 WZ

Oil:

Bunge sold 600 K 25 puts

FI bot 740 Z 27 calls/sold 370 BOZ

Drax sold 500 Z 29 calls-25 put strangles

Rosenthal bot 600 Z 29 calls

Rosenthal sold 200 Z 27 straddles

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 385 9.50 / 9.75 26.50%

X15 385 24.75 / 25 27.00%

Z15 385 32.25 / 32.50 25.75%

H16 400 50.25 / 50.75 24.75%

K16 400 59 / 60 24.50%

N16 410 69 / 69.50 24.50%

Z16 410 78 / 79 22.25%

Beans:

V15 870 15 / 17 21.50%

X15 870 41 / 43 20.25%

Z15 880 51 / 53 18.25%

F16 880 62 / 64 17.75%

H16 880 79 / 81 17.75%

K16 880 90 / 93 17.00%

N16 880 103 / 105 17.00%

U16 880 113 / 117 17.00%

X16 880 121 / 126 17.00%

Wheat:

V15 500 12.50 / 13.50 28.00%

Z15 500 42 / 43 26.00%

H16 500 65 / 66 25.50%

K16 510 78 / 80 25.50%

N16 510 90 / 92 25.75%

KC Wheat:

V15 490 11.50 / 13.50 28.00

Z15 490 39 / 41 25.00%

H16 510 65.50 / 67.50 25.50%

K16 520 76 / 79 24.50%

N16 520 87 / 89 24.50%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 520 37 / 39 22.50%

H16 530 60 / 65 23.00%

K16 540 72 / 80 23.00%

N16 550 87 / 95 24.00%

U16 560 92 / 105 23.00%

Z16 580 105 / 125 23.00%

Meal:

V15 310 6.0 / 7.0 25.00%

X15 310 16.0 / 17.0 22.50%

Z15 310 21.5 / 22.5 22.00%

F16 310 26.0 / 27.0 21.25%

H16 310 32.0 / 34.0 20.75%

K16 300 35.0 / 37.0 19.50%

N16 300 38.5 / 40.5 19.00%

Q16 300 39.5 / 41.5 18.50%

U16 300 40.0 / 43.0 18.00%

V16 300 41.0 / 44.0 17.75%

Z16 300 43.0 / 46.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

V15 26.5 60 / 70 27.00%

X15 27.0 140 / 160 23.50%

Z15 27.0 190 / 210 23.00%

F16 27.0 230 / 250 22.00%

H16 27.0 290 / 320 21.75%

K16 28.0 330 / 370 20.75%

N16 28.0 370 / 410 20.25%

Q16 28.0 390 / 430 20.25%

U16 28.0 400 / 450 20.00%

V16 28.0 400 / 450 19.50%

Z16 28.0 420 / 470 18.75%

Crush quotes

               Open                     Closes

Oct         98.5-100.00         98.0-99.0

Dec        98.5-99.0              97.5-98.0

JanDec  93.5-95.0             93.0-94.0

Jan         94.0-95.0              93.5-94.5

Mch       89.5-90.0              88.5-89.5

May       81.0-82.5              81.5-83.0

Jly           80.0-81.0              80.0-81.0

Aug        81.0-83.0              80.5-82.5

Sep        —   -97.5              77.5-97.5

Dec6      88.5-93.0              87.5-90.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE