From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/17/15

Fed announcement came out today at 1 pm.

  • Feds did NOT raise interest rates  – There were mixed views by analysts what Feds would do with interest rates today.
  • Feds have not raised interest rates since 2006

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment

Egypt FIHC bought 25,000 tons of bean oil and 9,000 tons of sunflower oil for Dec-Jan shipment

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 wheat area at 4.0 MH down 24% from a year ago

  • Said wheat planting is 100% complete
  • Said Argentina lost 130,000 hectares of wheat due to rains

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 61.4 MMT

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 33.8 MMT

Analysts in Australia are saying Australian ‘15/16 wheat crop may be larger than 27.0 MMT. ABARES last estimate was 25.28 MMT. USDA last estimate was 26.0 MMT

  • Earlier in the year there were concerns Australian ‘15/16 wheat crop would set an eight year low due to El Nino.

Strategie Grains 2015 EU crop estimates

  • 2015 EU corn crop estimated at 57.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59.7 MMT and down 24% from 2014 corn crop
  • 2015 EU soft wheat crop estimated at 147.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 144.0 MMT and down 1% from 2014
  • 2015 EU barley crop estimated at 60.4 vs. previous estimate of 58.8 MMT , unchanged from 2014 crop

Ukraine Ag Min said as of today Ukraine has exported 7.7 MMT of grain so far in the ‘15/16 season.

Japan imported 1,916,242 tons of grains in August down 3.4% from a year ago

  • Imported 1,372,470 tons from the US down 1.3% from a year ago

Japan imported 232,513 tons of soybeans in August down 22.3% from a year ago

  • Imported 123,555 tons from the US down 3.7% from a year ago

Hungary’s 2015 cereals crop at 7.5 MMT up 2.8% from 2014.

New corn disease confirmed in Indiana

  • Purdue plant pathologists have identified tar spot, a corn disease not previously reported in the US, in plant samples collected from a field in north central Indiana
  • The specific fungal disease found in Indiana has had minimal impact on yields in other areas where it is common , including Mexico and Central America, and experts say no action is needed to manage it this late in the growing season

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this morning at +73 BCF , expecting +72 BCF.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn sold 8,000
  • Beans sold 2,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil even

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Rogers index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Tuesday September 29th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 3 days.
  • China’s Golden Week starts Thursday Oct 1st . China markets will be closed from Oct 1st through October 7th.
  • Stats Canada will update Canadian crop estimates on Friday October 2nd. Stats Canada comes out at 730 am CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.

Option players:

  • Drax bought 1,000 Nov bean 800 p / 950 c strangles at 5 ½
  • Drax bought 1,500 Jan bean 960 calls at 9 7/8 -10 sold Jan futures at 886 ½
  • Bunge bought 1,000 Nov bean 880 puts and sold 500 July bean 840 puts at 11 debit
  • Rand bought 1,000 Oct corn 380 puts at 5  -6
  • RJO sold 1,000 Dec corn 450 calls at 1 ¾
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Oct corn 370 puts at 2 3/8 tied to Dec futures at 380 ¾ .
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Nov corn 370 puts at 8
  • ICAP sold 1,000 Dec wheat 500 calls at 13 ¾ tied to futures at 482
  • Drax bought 500 Dec wheat 600 calls at 1 5/8
  • New Edge bought 400 Oct wheat 480-460 put spreads at 5 ¼ -5 5/8
  • RJO bought 200 Oct meal 320-310 put spreads at 5.75 tied to futures at 313.50
  • FI sold 1,000 Dec bean oil 22 puts at 5

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 380 11.75 / 12.5 25.00%

X15 380 25.50 / 26.25 26.50%

Z15 380 32.25 / 33.00 25.50%

H16 390 49.25 / 50.00 24.25%

K16 400 58.75 / 59.75 24.25%

N16 400 68 / 70   24.50%

Z16 400 75.50 / 77.50 22.00%

Beans:

V15 880 20 / 22 19.75%

X15 880 43 / 45 19.75%

Z15 900 57 / 59 19.00%

F16 900 68 / 70 18.50%

H16 900 84 / 86 18.25%

K16 900 95 / 98 17.50%

N16 900 108 / 112 17.50%

U16 880 116 / 122 17.25%

X16 880 122 / 128 17.00%

Wheat:

V15 480 15 / 16.50 27.00%

Z15 480 41 / 42.50 26.00%

H16 490 64 / 65.50 25.75%

K16 500 77 / 80 25.75%

N16 500 89 / 92 25.75%

KC Wheat:

V15 480 14 / 16 25.00%

Z15 480 40 / 42 25.25%

H16 500 64 / 66 25.25%

K16 510 79 / 82 25.75%

N16 520 88 / 92 25.75%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 510 36 / 40 22.75%

H16 530 59 / 63 22.75%

K16 540 72 / 77 22.75%

N16 550 86 / 91 24.00%

Meal:

V15 315 8.5 / 9.5 24.00%

X15 310 18.0 / 19.0 23.50%

Z15 310 23.5 / 24.5 23.00%

F16 310 28.0 / 29.0 22.25%

H16 310 33.0 / 35.0 21.00%

K16 310 36.5 / 38.5 19.75%

N16 310 40.5 / 42.5 19.25%

Q16 310 41.5 / 43.5 18.75%

U16 310 42.0 / 45.0 18.25%

V16 310 42.5 / 45.5 17.75%

Z16 310 45.0 / 48.0 17.25%

Bean oil:

V15 26.5 70 / 90 25.00%

X15 27.0 150 / 170 23.50%

Z15 27.0 200 / 220 23.25%

F16 27.0 230 / 260 22.25%

H16 27.0 290 / 320 21.75%

K16 28.0 330 / 370 20.75%

N16 28.0 380 / 420 20.50%

Q16 28.0 390 / 440 20.25%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 410 / 460 19.75%

Z16 28.0 440 / 490 19.25%

 

 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE