From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/16/15

Tomorrow will be the second day of the 2 day FOMC policy meeting. There will be a Fed announcement at 1 pm CST tomorrow.

  • Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates tomorrow, it has been nine years since Feds have raised interest rates.

There has been talk this week of China rejecting South American bean oil cargoes due to issues with import licensing. Talk they canceled 3 cargoes from Argentina.  

Indonesia bought Argentina soymeal for October shipment

Morocco bought Argentina soymeal for October shipment

Vietnam is seeking soymeal for May shipment

Jordan bought 50,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for Dec shipment

Japan bought 8,308 tons of feed wheat and 127,583 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for November shipment

Ukraine grain stocks as of September 1st were 27.2 MMT up 16% from a year ago

FSA came out about 9 am with their corrected US acreage data . This data will be included in the USDA October crop report

  • 2015 planted acres including failed

o   Corn estimated at 84.28 MA vs. August estimate of 83.147 MA

o   Beans estimated at 80.68 MA vs. August estimate of 79.478 MA

o   Wheat estimated at 52.22 MA vs. August estimate of 51.73 MA

  • 2015 prevented planting

o   Corn estimated at 2.352 MA vs. August estimate of 2.301 MA

o   Beans estimated at 2.219 MA vs. August estimate of 2.173 MA

o   Wheat estimated at 695,509 acres vs. August estimate of 692,664 acres

Brazilian Meteorologist Somar said Brazil’s wheat losses from frost were significant

  • Also said new crop corn has been damaged by frost
  • Said conditions in southern Brazil seen getting worse in next few days as rain should spread crop diseases

EU August Oilseed Processing

  • EU soybean processing in August was 1.167 MMT vs. 970,000 tons a year ago
  • EU soybean crush in August was 3.206 MMT vs. 3.16 MMT a year ago
  • EU sunflower crush in August was 183,000 tons vs. 160,000 tons a year ago
  • EU rapeseed processing in August was 1.856 MMT vs. 2.03 MMT a year ago

India’s government ‘15/16 summer sown crop estimates

  • Rice crop estimated at 90.6 MMT
  • Corn crop estimated at 15.51 MMT
  • Oilseed crop estimated at 19.89 MMT
  • Soybean crop estimated at 11.83 MMT

Iran has a record high wheat stockpiles of 10.0 MMT , enough to meet domestic needs for a year

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 7,000
  • Beans sold 1,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Malaysia markets were closed today for holiday trading resumes tomorrow .
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   Wheat – 275-450,000 tons

o   Corn – 400 -600,000 tons

o   Beans – 900,000 – 1.30 million tons

o   Meal – 100- 230,000 tons

o   Bean oil – 0-20,000 tons

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 pm CST , expecting +72 BCF
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates.
  • Chinese trade delegation is coming to the US next week, expected to sign deals to buy “several million” tons of US soybeans on Sept 24th

Option players:

  • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Jan bean 860 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 850 puts at 12 ½ -12 5/8 debit
  • Rosenthal bought 600 Nov16 bean 960 calls and sold 600 Nov16 bean 820 puts at 1-1 ½ debit
  • TJM bought 1,000 Jan bean 840 / 780 / 740 put flys at 7 3/8 – 8 debit
  • ICAP bought 2,500 Oct corn 380 puts today , tied and live, at 3 – 3 7/8
  • ICAP sold 2,000 Nov corn 350-370 put spreads at 4
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March corn 350 puts at 6 3/8
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 370 p /410 c strangles at 18
  • Macquarie bought 500 Dec wheat 520 calls at 12 1/8 tied to futures at 493
  • Rosenthal bought 400 Dec wheat 450 calls at 43-44
  • ICAP bought 400 Oct wheat 490 calls and sold 800 Oct wheat 510 calls at 3 ½ debit
  • TJM bought 700 March meal 280-260 put spreads at 3.25
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec meal 290 puts at 3.80 tied to futures at 315.00
  • FI bought 700 Nov meal 300-290 put spreads at 170-200
  • Rosenthal bought 200 July bean oil 30-35 call spreads and sold 200 July bean oil 25 puts at 15 debit

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 385 12 / 12.75 25.50%

X15 385 26 / 27  26.75%

Z15 385 33 / 33.50 25.50%

H16 400 50 / 51 24.50%

K16 400 59.50 / 60.50 24.00%

N16 410 69.50 / 71 24.50%

Z16 410 77 / 79 22.00%

Beans:

V15 890 21 / 23 19.50%

X15 890 44 / 46 19.75%

Z15 900 57 / 59 19.25%

F16 900 68 / 70 18.50%

H16 900 84 / 87 18.25%

K16 900 96 / 99 17.50%

N16 900 108 / 112 17.50%

U16 880 116 / 122 17.25%

X16 880 122 / 128 17.00%

Wheat:

V15 490 16.50 / 17.50 25.50%

Z15 490 42 / 43.50 26.00%

H16 500 66.50 / 68 25.75%

K16 500 78 / 80 25.50%

N16 510 89 / 92 26.00%

KC Wheat:

V15 490 15 / 17 24.00%

Z15 490 40 / 42 25.50%

H16 510 63 / 65 25.25%

K16 520 79 / 82 25.25%

N16 530 92 / 96 25.75%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 515 39 / 43 23.00%

H16 530 60 / 64 23.00%

K16 540 72 / 77 23.00%

N16 550 86 / 92 24.00%

Meal:

V15 320 9.5 / 10.5 24.00%

X15 320 19.0 / 20.0 23.75%

Z15 320 25.0 / 26.0 23.50%

F16 320 29.0 / 30.0 22.00%

H16 310 33.0 / 35.0 21.00%

K16 310 36.5 / 38.5 19.75%

N16 310 40.5 / 42.5 19.25%

Q16 310 41.5 / 43.5 18.75%

U16 310 42.0 / 45.0 18.25%

V16 310 42.5 / 45.5 17.75%

Z16 310 44.5 / 47.5 17.25%

Bean oil:

V15 26.5 80 / 100 25.50%

X15 27.0 160 / 180 24.50%

Z15 27.0 210 / 230 24.00%

F16 27.0 240 / 270 22.75%

H16 27.0 300 / 330 22.25%

K16 28.0 340 / 380 21.50%

N16 28.0 380 / 420 20.50%

Q16 28.0 390 / 440 20.25%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 410 / 460 19.75%

Z16 28.0 440 / 490 19.25%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Oct         102.5-103.5         101.5-102.5

Dec        102.5-103.0         102.0-102.5

JanDec    99.5-100.5         98.0-99.5

Jan         98.5-99.5              97.5-98.0

Mch       93.0-93.5              92.0-93.0

May       85.5-86.5              84.5-85.0

Jly           84.0-85.0              82.0-83.5

Aug        84.5-87.0              83.0-84.5

Sep        92.0-104.0           92.0-104.0

Dec6      93.5-97.0              93.0-95.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE