From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/15/15

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of hard wheat from the Black Sea region for Nov shipment

Good US harvest weather the next two weeks

Early Brazilian soybean planting expected to have started today. AproSoja said  Mato Grosso soy areas are not getting rain this week , soy planting to start by month end

Weather service Somar said Brazil’s center – west soy belt weather favors early soybean planting

Oil world said dry weather may delay Brazil soybean planting.

  • Said Mato Grosso is experiencing low soil moisture
  • Said Parana and Goias have seen below normal rainfall since August

Oil World estimated Brazil’s Sept soybean exports at 4.0 MMT v s. 2.7 MMT a year ago

Oil World estimated Brazil’s Jan – Sept soybean exports at 50.0 MMT (record) vs. 44.7 MMT a year ago

More rains are in the forecast for southern Brazil , this may further harm their wheat crop

IMEA expects Mato Grosso’s ‘15/16 safrinha corn acreage will increase by 2.7% from ‘14/15

DERAL said Parana safrinha corn crop is 96% harvested

DERAL estimated Parana safrinha corn crop at 11.1 MMT up 7.8% from a year ago

Mato Grosso do Sul farmers have sold 27% of their ‘15/16  bean crop vs. 8% a year ago and vs. 12% average

Mato Grosso do Sul farmers have sold 83% of their ‘14/15 bean crop

Oil World estimated 2015 global biodiesel output at 28.95 MMT vs. previous estimate of 29.16 MMT down 4.9% from 2014.

  • Said Indonesia’s 2015 biodiesel output may fall to a three year low of 2.1 MMT
  • Estimated US biodiesel 2015 output at 4.36 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.3 MMT
  • Said 8.84 MMT of biodiesel in 2015 will be made from palm oil down 7.6% from a year ago
  • Said 7.74 MMT of biodiesel in 2015 will be made from bean oil down 2.9% from a year ago
  • Said 6.78 MMT of biodiesel in 2015 will be made from rapeseed oil down 7.5% from a year ago

Hearing Cordonnier estimated US 2015 corn yield at 165.0 BPA , unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 167.5 BPA

Hearing Cordonnier estimated US 2015 bean yield at 46.0 BPA, unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 47.1 BPA

Argentina Ag Min- Argentina farmer’s selling as of Sept 2nd

  • ‘14/15 wheat crop 95.20% sold vs. 69.10% a year ago
  • ‘15/16 wheat crop 1.87% sold vs. 4.86% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop 69.95% sold vs. 69.36% a year ago
  • ‘15/16 corn crop .88% sold vs. 1.19% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop 65.20% sold vs. 57.15% a year ago
  • ‘15/16 bean crop .08% sold vs. .94% a year ago

Russia’s Grain Union estimated 2015 grain crop at 100.0 MMT vs. Russia’s Ag Min estimate of 103.0 MMT

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 4,000
  • Corn sold 7,000
  • Beans bought 6,000
  • Meal bought 4,000
  • Bean oil sold 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Updated FSA acreage data comes out on tomorrow morning. This FSA data will be included in the USDA October report. Expecting

o   1.0 million less bean acres

o   200,000 less corn acres

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 1.75 MB

o   Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 250,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST.
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is tomorrow and Thursday
  • Fed announcement Thursday at 1 pm CST. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates.

Option players:

  • ICAP sold 500 Nov bean 870 puts and bought 1,000 Nov bean 830 puts at 4 5/8
  • EDF Mann sold 500 Oct bean 980 calls at a ¼
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Oct corn 400 calls at 3 ½
  • RJO sold 1,000 October corn 365 puts at 5/8 tied to futures at 392 ½
  • ICAP bought 1,000 Dec corn 400-420 call spreads and sold 1,000 Dec 360 puts paid 7/8
  • ICAP bought 2,000 Nov corn 380 calls at 19 ¼ -19 ½
  • ABN bought 1,000 Nov corn 360 puts at 3 1/8 tied to futures at 392 ½
  • ABN bought 1,500 Dec corn 345 puts at 2 ¾
  • RJO bought 400 Oct wheat 480 puts at 3 3/8 -3 ½
  • RJO sold 500 Dec wheat 630 calls at 1 1/8
  • Drax bought 500 Dec wheat 430 puts at 2 ¼ tied to 493
  • Rosenthal bought 800 Nov soymeal 280 puts at 1.00
  • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec meal 350 calls at 280 tied to futures at 316.00
  • Macquarie bought 850 March bean oil 28.50 calls at 120 tied to futures at 2740

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 390 12.50 / 13 23.50%

X15 390 26.75 / 27.50 26.70%

Z15 390 34.25 / 34.75 25.90%

H16 400 50.75 / 51.75 24.40%

K16 410 61 / 62 24.40%

N16 410 70 / 71.50 24.70%

Z16  410 77.50 / 78.50 21.25%

Beans:

V15 890 21 / 23 18.75%

X15 890 45 / 47 20.00%

Z15 900 58 / 60 19.25%

F16 900 69 / 71 18.75%

H16 900 84 / 87 18.25%

K16 900 96 / 99 17.50%

N16 900 108 / 112 17.50%

U16 880 115 / 121 17.25%

X16 880 122 / 128 17.00%

Wheat:

V15 500 17 / 19 24.75%

Z15 500 43 / 46 25.50%

H16 510 67 / 69 25.50%

K16 510 79 / 82 25.50%

N16 530 92 / 96 25.50%

KC Wheat:

V15 490 16 / 17.50 25.00%

Z15 490 42 / 44 26.00%

H16 510 65 / 68 25.00%

K16 520 79 / 82 25.00%

N16 530 92 / 96 25.50%

Minneapolis wheat:
Z15 520 39 / 43 23.00%

H16 530 60 / 64 23.00%

K16 540 73 / 78 23.00%

N16 550 88 / 93 24.00%

Meal:

V15 320 9.5 / 10.5 23.50%

X15 320 18.5 / 19.5 23.00%

Z15 320 24.5 / 25.5 23.00%

F16 320 29.0 / 30.0 22.00%

H16 310 33.0 / 35.0 21.00%

K16 310 37.0 / 39.0 20.00%

N16 310 40.5 / 42.5 19.25%

Q16 310 41.5 / 43.5 18.75%

U16 310 42.0 / 45.0 18.25%

V16 310 42.5 / 45.5 17.75%

Z16 310 44.5 / 47.5 17.25

Bean oil:

V15 26.5 80 / 100 25.50%

X15 27.0 160 / 180 24.50%

Z15 27.0 210 / 230 24.00%

F16 27.0 250 / 270 23.00%

H16 27.0 300 / 330 22.25%

K16 28.0 350 / 390 21.50%

N16 28.0 390 / 430 21.00%

Q16 28.0 400 / 450 20.50%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 420 / 470 19.50%

Z16 28.0 440 / 490 19.25%

Crush quotes

                Open                     Closes

Oct         103.0-104.5         102.0-103.5

Dec        102.0-102.5         102.0-102.5

JanDec   98.0-99.5            99.0-100.0

Jan         97.5-99.0              98.0-98.5

Mch       93.0-94.5              92.0-93.0

May       85.0-87.0              84.0-85.0

Jly           83.5-85.5              82.0-83.5

Aug        84.0-87.0              82.5-84.5

Sep        na-104.0               92.0-104.0

Dec6      96.0-97.5              92.0-97.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE