From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/14/15

September futures expired today at noon .

ABARES estimated Australian ‘15/16 wheat exports at 17.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.5 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 wheat exports of 16.6 MMT

ABARES estimated ‘15/16 global wheat production at 723.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 715.0 MMT

ABARES estimated ‘15/16 Australian canola exports at 2.32 MMT vs. previous estimate of  2.177 MMT

ABARES estimated ’15/16 EU rapeseed output at 21.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.9 MMT

CWG said parts of FSU are too dry to start wheat plantings.

Brazil expected to start planting beans next week.

Reports of frost damage over the weekend in southern Brazil. Could have caused damage to wheat crop.

Russia is ready to export up to 2.0 MMT of wheat a year to Brazil .

Cepea estimated Brazil’s September corn exports at 3.5 MMT , if so it will be the highest corn exports for any month since November 2013

Argentina’s Ciara – CEC said for the week ending Sept 11th Argentina sold $252 million grains and oilseeds vs. $307 the week before

Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 1030 am CST.

  • Wheat at 647,551 tons, expecting 325-475,000 tons
  • Corn at 711,178 tons, expecting 775 -950,000 tons
  • Beans at 370,901 tons, expecting 150-300,000 tons

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 8,000
  • Corn bought 8,000
  • Beans bought 5,000
  • Meal bought 3,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn good to excellent conditions – steady to down 1% from a week ago

o   Corn harvest about 5% complete (this will be the first report that shows corn harvest progress)

o   Bean good to excellent conditions – steady to down 1% from a week ago  

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out tomorrow morning with their Malaysian palm oil Sept 1-15th palm oil export estimates.  
  • NOPA August crush report comes out tomorrow. NOPA comes out at 11 am CST . Expecting

o   Crush average estimate is 135.018  MB vs. July crush of 145.227 MB and vs. August 2014 crush of 110.633 MB

o   Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.527  billion lbs. vs. July bean oil stocks of 1.624 billion lbs. and vs. August 2014 bean oil stocks of 1.214 billion lbs.

o   Meal exports , no estimate is given for meal exports. In July meal exports were 590,582 tons and in August 2014 meal export were 263,440 tons.

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Updated FSA acreage data comes out on Wednesday. This FSA data will be included in the USDA October report. Expecting

o   1.0 million less bean acres

o   200,000 less corn acres

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Wednesday  and Thursday
  • Fed announcement Thursday at 1 pm CST. – Uncertainty if Feds will raise US interest rates.

Option players:

  • ABN sold 1,000 Nov bean 840 puts at 7 ¾ – 7 7/8 tied to Nov futures at 886.
  • Bunge bought 1,000 Nov bean 840 puts and sold the March 780 puts at 1 1/8 tied to Nov futures at 887.
  • ICAP bought 3,000 Nov / March bean 860 put calendars at 15 ½ – 16
  • RJO bought 2,000 Oct corn 365 puts at 7/8.  
  • RJO bought 2,000 Oct corn 370 puts at 1 ¼
  • FI bought 1,000 Dec corn 330 puts at 1 3/8
  • Drax bought 2,000 Dec corn 400-430 call spreads at 8 ½
  • ICAP sold 2,000 Dec corn 330 puts at 1 ¼ tied to futures at 392 ½
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct wheat 470 calls at 29-29 ½
  • EDF Mann bought 500 Nov wheat 460 puts at 4 tied to futures at 499
  • ICAP bought 400 Dec wheat 520 -550 call spreads at 6.
  • Macquarie sold 700 Oct wheat 500 puts at 10 ¾ tied to futures at 498.
  • Drax bought 500 Dec meal 310 puts and sold 500 Jan meal 310 puts at 3.00 credit. Dec tied to 311.00 and Jan tied to 309
  • Rosenthal bought 400 Dec meal 350 calls at 2.40
  • RJO bought 400 October bean oil 27 puts and sold 400 November bean oil 27 puts at 30 credit
  • FI sold 300 Dec bean oil 2750 straddles at 240

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 390 13.50 / 14.25 26.00%

X15 390 27.75 / 28.75 27.75%

Z15 390 35 / 35.75 26.50%

H16 400 51.75 / 52.50 24.75%

K16 410 61.50 / 63 24.50%

N16 410 71 / 72.50 24.50%

Z16 410 78.50 / 80 22.25%

Beans:

V15 890 24 / 26 20.00%

X15 890 46 / 48 20.25%

Z15 900 59 / 61 19.50%

F16 900 70 / 72 18.75%

H16 900 84 / 87 18.25%

K16 900 95 / 98 17.50%

N16 900 107 / 111 17.50%

U16 880 115 / 121 17.25%

X16 880 122 / 128 17.25%

Wheat:

V15 500 19 / 20 26.50%

Z15 500 42 ¼ / 45 26.00%

H16 510 67 / 69 25.75%

K16 510 80 / 83 26.00%

N16 520 93 / 95 26.00%

KC Wheat:

V15 500 18.50 / 20 26.00%

Z15 500 43 / 46 25.50%

H16 510 65 / 68 24.50%

K16 520 79 / 82 25.00%

N16 530 93 / 96 25.50%

Meal:

V15 315 9.5 / 10.5 23.00%

X15 310 19.0 / 20.0 24.00%

Z15 310 24.5 / 25.5 23.50%

F16 310 28.5 / 29.5 22.50%

H16 310 33.5 / 35.5 21.25%

K16 300 36.5 / 38.5 20.00%

N16 300 40.0 / 42.0 19.50%

Q16 300 41.0 / 43.0 19.00%

U16 300 41.0 / 44.0 18.50%

V16 300 42.0 / 45.0 18.00%

Z16 300 44.0 / 47.0 17.50%

Bean oil:

V15 27.0 100 / 120 29.50%

X15 27.0 180 / 200 26.50%

Z15 27.0 230 / 250 26.00%

F16 28.0 270 / 290 23.75%

H16 28.0 320 / 350 23.00%

K16 28.0 350 / 390 21.25%

N16 28.0 390 / 430 21.00%

Q16 28.0 400 / 450 20.50%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 420 / 470 19.50%

Z16 28.0 440 / 490 19.25%

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE