From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/10/15

USDA September crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table or see below for estimates.

Egypt FIHC seeks 60,000 bean oil and 18,000 sunflower oil for Dec-Jan shipment

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out this today at 930 am CST at +68 BCF expecting +77 BCF

Weekly DOE energy inventory report came out today at 10 am CST

  • Crude a build of 2.57 MB , expecting a build of 850,000 barrels
  • Gas a build of 384,000 barrels , expecting a draw of 76,000 barrels
  • Distillates a build of 952,000 barrels , expecting a build of 825,000 barrels

Weekly US ethanol plant production report came out today at 10 am CST

  • US ethanol stockpiles fell 1.9% to 18.6 MB
  • US ethanol output rose 1.1% to 958,000 BPD

Planalytics estimated 2015 US corn yield at 166.3 BPA vs. previous estimate of 166.8 BPA

Planalytics estimated 2015 US bean yield at 46.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.2 BPA

Russia’s July 1-Sept 9 grain exports were 6.8 MMT down 22.50% from a year ago

Ukraine July 1-Sept 10 grain exports were 6.96 MMT

Saskatchewan said 40% of their 2015 grain and canola crop has been harvested, yields vary but overall are close to the average.

This morning S&P downgraded Brazil debt to junk status and Real plunged to 3.88/$, lowest since 2002.

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 3,000
  • Corn bought 9,000
  • Beans bought 1,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil bought 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • CONAB comes out tomorrow morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 crops in October. Previous estimates from CONAB were

o   ‘14/15 bean crop previously estimated at 96.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 bean exports previously estimated at 49.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total corn crop previously estimated at 84.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 corn exports previously estimated at 26.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT

o   2015 wheat crop previously estimated at 7.00 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total grain crop previously estimated at 208.8 MMT

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   Wheat = 250 -500,000 tons

o   Corn = 300-600,000 tons

o   Beans = 1.0 – 1.50 million tons

o   Meal = 55 -300,000 tons

o   Bean oil =  – 10,000 to 25,000 tons

  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

Moments of silence  tomorrow

  • Moments of silence tomorrow in Chicago for the victims of September 11th will be 7:18-7:19 am CST and 8:28-8:29 am CST
  • Moments of silence tomorrow in New York for the victims of September 11th will be 8:46-8:47, 9:03-904, 9:59-10:00 , and 10:29-10:30 am EST.

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report

Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report tomorrow .

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.559 BB, range of estimates are 13.471 -13.870 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.686 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.6 BPA, range of estimates are 166.1 -170.5 BB. USDA August estimate was 168.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.122 MA, range of estimates are 81.100-81.351 MA. USDA August estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.869 BB, range of estimates are 3.791-3.935 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.916 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 46.4 BPA, range of estimates are 45.4 – 47.1 BPA. USDA August estimate was 46.9 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (11 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.486 MA, range of estimates are 83.100 – 83.549 MA. USDA August estimate was 83.549 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.761 BB, range of estimates are 1.722 -1.779 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.772 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .223 BB, range of estimates are .200- .240 BB. USDA August estimate was .240 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .865 BB, range of estimates are .850 -.885 BB. USDA August estimate was .850 BB
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.643 BB, range of estimates are 1.511 -1.832 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.713 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .415 BB, range of estimates are .336 -.475 BB. USDA August estimate was .470 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 209.84 MMT, range of estimates are 209.00 -212.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 209.66 MMT.
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 197.05 MMT, range of estimates are 196.03 -197.70 MMT. USDA August estimate was 197.42 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 80.15 MMT, range of estimates are 79.37 – 81.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 80.57 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 221.90 MMT, range of estimates are 220.00-224.00 MMT . USDA August estimate was 221.47 MMT
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 193.44 MMT, range of estimates are 192.00 – 195.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 195.09 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 86.21 MMT, range of estimates are 85.03 -87.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 86.88 MMT

Option players:

Corn:

RJO bot 2000 V 390 calls

ABN bot 2000 Z 420 calls

ABN bot 1000 Z 430 calls

ABN bot 1000 Z 375-345 put spreads

FI bot 2000 Z 380-420 call spreads

ICAP sold 1000 Z 420 calls/bot 180 CZ
ICAP bot 700 Z 390 calls/sold 700 Z 350 puts/sold 462 CZ

ICAP bot 500 Z 400 calls/sold 500 Z 350 puts/sold 270 CZ

ICAP sold 700 X 370 straddles

ICAP sold 500 V 380 straddles

ICAP sold 500 X 380 straddles

FCS sold 1000 Z 410 calls/bot 240 CZ
Drax sold 500 H 410 calls-340 put strangles

JPM sold 400 X 380 calls

Macquarie sold 500 Z 390 calls covered

FI sold 500 Z 430 calls

Beans:

ABN bot 750 V 850 puts/sold 1500 V 820 puts

ABN sold 500 X 910-940 call spreads

Bunge bot 750 week 2 870 puts

Bunge bot 750 week 3 870 puts

RJO sold 700 V 820 puts-920 call strangles

FI bot 400 F 800 puts

Rand sold 400 V 870 calls

Rand bot 500 K 900 calls/sold 192 SK

Rosenthal bot 350 X 840 puts/bot 98 SX

Wheat:

RJO sold 1000 V 480-470 put spreads

Shatkin bot 850 V 475-460 put spreads/bot 187 WZ

Rand sold 700 V 470-460 put spreads

Rand sold 600 V 500-490 put spreads

RJO bot 600 KCN 600 calls/sold 600 WN 600 calls

Macquarie bot 600 Z 500-530 call spreads/sold 89 WZ

Macquarie bot 500 V 480 calls/sold 250 WZ

ICAP bot 600 Z 540 calls/sold 300 Z 490 calls/bot 30 WZ

Meal:

Bunge bot 800 Z 300 calls/sold 800 N 310 calls

ADM bot 400 K 330 calls/sold 400 K 270 puts

Oil:

Macquarie bot 1425 H 27 ½ calls/sold 770 BOH

Rosenthal bot 600 Z 30 ½ calls/sold 200 F 26 ½ puts

Rosenthal bot 500 Z 27-25 put spreads

JPM sold 200 Z 28 calls/bot 200 Z 25 ½ puts

Crush:

Rose bot 50 Dec 100 straddles at 18

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 375 20 / 20.75 32.50%

X15 375 30 / 31 29.50%

Z15 375 36 / 37 27.50%

H16 390 52 / 53 25.50%

K16 390 62 / 63 25.50%

N16 400 71 / 73 25.50%

Z16 400 77 / 78.50 22.25%

Beans:

V15 880 37 / 39 26.50%

X15 880 55 / 57 23.00%

Z15 880 65 / 67 21.25%

F16 880 76 / 78 20.50%

H16 880 91 / 94 19.75%

K16 880 101 / 105 18.75%

N16 880 112 / 116 18.50%

U16 880 119 / 125 17.75%

X16 880 127 / 133 17.50%

Wheat:

V15 470 22.50 / 23.50 29.00%

Z15 470 43.50 / 45 26.75%

H16 480 66.50 / 69 26.00%

K16 490 79 / 81 26.00%

N16 490 92.50 / 93 26.00%

KC Wheat:

V15 470 22.50 / 23.50 27.00%

Z15 470 42 / 44 25.50%

H16 490 65 / 67 25.00%

K16 500 80 / 81 25.25%

N16 510 93 / 94 25.25%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 510 39 / 43 23.00%

H16 520 60 / 64 23.00%

K16 530 70 / 76 22.50%

N16 540 85 / 91 24.00%

Meal:

V15 310 14.0 / 15.0 28.50%

X15 310 22.5 / 23.5 27.00%

Z15 310 28.0 / 29.0 26.25%

F16 310 31.5 / 32.5 24.25%

H16 310 35.5 / 37.5 22.25%

K16 300 38.0 / 40.0 20.75%

N16 300 41.0 / 43.0 20.00%

Q16 300 42.0 / 44.0 19.25%

U16 300 42.5 / 45.5 18.75%

V16 300 43.0 / 46.0 18.25%

Z16 300 45.0 / 48.0 17.75%

Bean oil:

V15 27.0 120 / 140 29.50%

X15 27.0 190 / 210 27.00%

Z15 27.0 240 / 260 26.00%

F16 28.0 280 / 310 24.50%

H16 28.0 330 / 360 23.25%

K16 28.0 360 / 400 22.00%

N16 28.0 400 / 440 21.25%

Q16 28.0 400 / 450 20.75%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 420 / 470 19.50%

Crush quotes

                   Open                Closes

Oct         103.5-104.5         1.00-100.5

Dec        102.0-103.0         99.5-100.5

Jan         97.0-98.0              95.0-96.5

Mch       93.0-94.5              91.5-93.0

May       86.0-87.0              85.5-86.5

Jly           84.0-85.5              83.5-85.0

Aug        84.5-87.5              84.0-85.0

Dec6      97.0-98.5              96.5-98.0

JanDec  97.5-99.0             96.0-97.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE