From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/09/15

News:

Jordan makes no purchases in tenders for 100,000 feed barley

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat exports at 11.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 exports of 11.4 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s 2015 soft wheat crop at 40.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 40.4 MMT and vs. 2014 crop at 37.5 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat ending stocks at 2.6 MMT vs. ‘14/15 ending stocks of 2.5 MMT and vs. five year average of 2.6 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 13.3 MMT vs. ‘14/15 record crop of 17.9 MMT

UK customs data shorted UK exported 76,963 tons of wheat in July vs. 12,111 tons in July 2014

Czech stats office estimated 2015 grain crop at 7.70 vs. previous estimate of 7.59 MMT

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Aug 29-Sept 4th total crush volume at 1,468,150 tons down 15.58% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 29-Sept 4th crush capacity utilization at 46.81% down 8.64% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 crush volume (Oct 1st 2014 –Sept 4th 2015)  at 70,838,700 tons up 6.60% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 crush volume (Jan 1-Sept 4) at 52,071,300 tons up 8.84% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 4th total imported bean stocks at 6.5473 MMT down .78% from a week ago and up 3.44% from a year ago
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 6.81 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 6.20 MMT
  • Estimated November bean imports at 6.50 MMT

Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates

  • 2015 US corn yield estimated at 165.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2015 US bean yield estimated at 46.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3,000
  • Corn bought 2,000
  • Beans sold 6,000
  • Meal sold 1,000
  • Bean oil sold 4,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their August palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey , expecting

o   August palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.41 MMT vs. July stocks of 2.265 MMT

o   August palm oil exports average estimate is 1.63 MMT vs. July exports of 1.602 MMT

o   August palm oil output average estimate is 2.0 MMT vs. July output of 1.816 MMT

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 850,000 barrels

o   Gas a draw of 76,000 barrels

o   Distillates a build of 825,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • CONAB comes out Friday morning with their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. CONAB will start estimating ‘15/16 crops in October. Previous estimates from CONAB were

o   ‘14/15 bean crop previously estimated at 96.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 86.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 bean exports previously estimated at 49.1 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 45.7 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total corn crop previously estimated at 84.3 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 80.1 MMT

o   ‘14/15 corn exports previously estimated at 26.4 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 20.9 MMT

o   2015 wheat crop previously estimated at 7.00 MMT

o   ‘14/15 total grain crop previously estimated at 208.8 MMT

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST. See below for estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST

Estimates for Friday’s USDA report

Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report on Friday .

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.559 BB, range of estimates are 13.471 -13.870 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.686 BB and ‘14/15 US final corn production was 14.216 BB
  • Corn yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.6 BPA, range of estimates are 166.1 -170.5 BB. USDA August estimate was 168.8 BPA and ‘14/15 US final corn yield was 171.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 81.122 MA, range of estimates are 81.100-81.351 MA. USDA August estimate was 81.101 MA and ‘14/15 US final corn harvested acres were 83.136 MA  
  • Soybean production (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.869 BB, range of estimates are 3.791-3.935 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.916 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean production was 3.969 BB
  • Soybean yield (12 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 46.4 BPA, range of estimates are 45.4 – 47.1 BPA. USDA August estimate was 46.9 BB and ‘14/15 US final soybean yield was 47.8 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (11 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 83.486 MA, range of estimates are 83.100 – 83.549 MA. USDA August estimate was 83.549 MA and ‘14/15 US final soybean harvested acres were 83.061 MA

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks:

  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.761 BB, range of estimates are 1.722 -1.779 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.772 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .223 BB, range of estimates are .200- .240 BB. USDA August estimate was .240 BB.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .865 BB, range of estimates are .850 -.885 BB. USDA August estimate was .850 BB
  • Corn (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.643 BB, range of estimates are 1.511 -1.832 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.713 BB
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .415 BB, range of estimates are .336 -.475 BB. USDA August estimate was .470 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 209.84 MMT, range of estimates are 209.00 -212.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 209.66 MMT.
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 197.05 MMT, range of estimates are 196.03 -197.70 MMT. USDA August estimate was 197.42 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 80.15 MMT, range of estimates are 79.37 – 81.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 80.57 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 221.90 MMT, range of estimates are 220.00-224.00 MMT . USDA August estimate was 221.47 MMT
  • Corn (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 193.44 MMT, range of estimates are 192.00 – 195.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 195.09 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 86.21 MMT, range of estimates are 85.03 -87.50 MMT . USDA August estimate was 86.88 MMT

Option players:

Corn:

FI bot 1000 Z 350 puts

FI bot 1000 X 400 calls

FI bot 1500 Z 360 puts

FI sold 500 K 400 straddles

FI sold 500 X 400-420 call spreads covered

FI sold 700 X 400-430 call spreads covered

FI sold 500 X 370 straddles

FI bot 500 Z 350 puts

FI sold 500 Z’16 350 puts/sold 100 CZ’16

Man bot 1000 X 350 puts

ABN sold 1000 X 380 calls-350 put strangles

ABN bot 1000 V 350 puts

ICAP sold 1000 X 370 straddles

Drax sold 1000 H 410 calls-340 put strangles

Macquarie bot 1000 Z 370-410 call spreads/sold 1000 N 350 puts

RJO sold 500 H 380 puts covered

Beans:

Rosenthal bot 2000 F 800 puts

FI bot 1000 V 860 puts

Man bot 1500 X 800 puts/bot 165 SX

Macquarie bot 2000 X 860-810 put spreads

Macquarie sold 500 X 810 puts/sold 80 SX

Macquarie sold 500 X 820 puts/sold 90 SX

RJO sold 800 X 900 puts

RJO sold 400 X 860 puts

RJO bot 500 X 1050 calls

Wheat:

ICAP bot 1000 V 480 calls/sold 400 WZ

ICAP bot 500 V 480 calls/sold 230 WZ

RJO bot 750 V 500 calls/sold 250 V 480 calls

FCS bot 500 X 440 puts/bot 80 WZ

Macquarie bot 500 V 460 puts/bot 130 WZ

ICAP bot 500 Z 510-530 call spreads/sold 45 WZ

Meal:

Bunge bot 300 Z 300 calls/sold 300 N 310 calls

JPM bot 220 V 340 calls

JPM sold 165 V 315 calls/bot 165 V 320 calls/bot 165 V 325 calls

JPM bot 150 V 300 puts

Oil:

Macquarie bot 300 X 30 calls

FI sold 200 Z 27 calls

FI sold 200 Z 28-30 call spreads

Macquarie sold 200 X 27 straddles

FCS sold 150 Z 25 puts

Macquarie bot 150 X 33 calls

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 370 19.50 / 20.25 31.00%

X15 370 29.75 / 30.25 29.00%

Z15 370 35.75 / 36.50 27.25%

H16 380 53 / 53.50 26.50%

K16 390 63 / 64.5 26.00%

N16 390 70.50 / 72.50 25.75%

Z16 390 77.50 / 79.50 23.00%

Beans:

V15 880 36 / 38 25.00%

X15 880 54 / 56 22.50%

Z15 880 65 / 67 21.00%

F16 880 75 / 77 20.00%

H16 880 90 / 93 19.50%

K16 880 100 / 104 18.50%

N16 880 112 / 116 18.25%

U16 880 119 / 125 17.75%

X16 880 127 / 133 17.50%

Wheat:

V15 480 22 / 23.50 27.00%

Z15 480 43 / 45 26.25%

H16 490 65 / 67.50 25.00%

K16 490 76.50 / 80 25.00%

N16 500 88 / 93 25.00%

KC wheat:

V15 480 20 / 21.50 26.00%

Z15 480 42 / 44 25.50%

H16 490 65 / 67 25.50%

K16 490 79 / 81 25.50%

N16 510 90 / 94 25.50%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 505 39 / 43 22.75%

H16 520 60 / 64 23.00%

K16 530 70 / 76 22.50%

N16 540 85 / 91 24.00%

Meal:

V15 310 14.0 / 15.0 27.50%

X15 310 22.5 / 23.5 26.75%

Z15 310 28.5 / 29.5 26.50%

F16 310 32.0 / 33.0 24.50%

H16 310 35.5 / 37.5 22.25%

K16 300 38.0 / 40.0 20.75%

N16 300 41.5 / 43.5 20.00%

Q16 300 42.0 / 44.0 19.25%

U16 300 42.5 / 45.5 18.75%

V16 300 43.0 / 46.0 18.25%

Z16 300 45.0 / 48.0 17.75%

Bean oil:

V15 27.0 125 / 145 29.50%

X15 27.0 195 / 215 27.50%

Z15 27.0 235 / 255 25.75%

F16 27.0 270 / 310 24.50%

H16 28.0 320 / 350 23.00%

K16 28.0 370 / 410 22.00%

N16 28.0 400 / 440 21.25%

Q16 28.0 400 / 450 20.75%

U16 28.0 410 / 460 20.00%

V16 28.0 420 / 470 19.50%

Z16 28.0 440 / 500 19.00%

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Closes

Oct         99.0-1.00              103.0-103.5

Dec        99.0-99.5              102.0-103.0

Jan         95.5-97.0              98.0-99.0

Mch       92.0-93.5              93.5-94.5

May       85.0-87.0              86.5-87.0

Jly           83.5-85.5              84.5-85.5

Aug        83.5-87.0              84.5-86.5

Dec6      94.0-98.0              96.0-98.5

JanDec5 95.0-96.5            97.5-99.5

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE