From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 09/01/15

News:

FC Stone comes out today with their US crop estimate updates. FC comes out around  3 pm CST, last month the numbers didn’t come out until after 5 pm CST (will send out numbers when they come out) FC Stone’s previous estimates were

  • 2015 corn crop estimated at 13.381 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.69 BB
  • 2015 corn yield estimated at 165.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 168.8 BPA
  • 2015 bean crop estimated at 3.797 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.916 BB
  • 2015 bean yield estimated at 45.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 46.9 BPA

EIA ethanol production for June was 29.684 million barrels versus 29.666 million barrels in May.

  • This equates to 448 million bushels of corn and compares to the USDA estimate of 441 million bushels of corn used for ethanol production in June.

EIA said US produced 2.001 million tons of DDGS in July vs. 1.977 MT in June

EIA said US June biodiesel production at 122 million gallons vs. 116 million gallons in May

EIA said 474 million lbs. of bean oil used for biodiesel in June (52% of biodiesel production total) vs. 443 million lbs. in May

EIA reported US pumped 9.5 million  barrels a day in May , down 250,000 from expectations and vs. 9.4 MB in June

Cordonnier estimated 2015 US corn yield at 165.0 BPA , unchanged from previous estimate

Cordonnier estimated 2015 US corn crop at 13.33 BB , unchanged from previous estimate

Cordonnier estimated 2015 US bean yield at 46.0 BPA, unchanged from previous estimate

Cordonnier estimated 2015 US bean crop at 3.81 BB , unchanged from previous estimate

Midwest weather is still dry and warm this week for eastern areas that need a rain to finish the bean crop. There are 2 rain events in the forecast next week for the Midwest.

Jordan canceled tender for 100,000 tons of optional origin hard milling wheat

Oil World estimates

  • ‘15/16 global soybean output at 315.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 312.8 MMT and down .9% on year
  • ‘15/16 global bean stocks estimated at 89.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.3 MMT and up 2.3% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 global rapeseed output estimated at 63.4 MMT down 7.4% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 global sunflower seed output estimated at 41.2 MMT up .5% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 global production of 7 main oilseeds estimated at 509.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 508.7 MMT and down 1.9% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 global oilseeds stocks estimated at 100.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 98.4 MMT and up .3% from a year ago  
  • ‘15/16 global crush of 7 main oilseeds estimated at 431.8 MMT up 2.4% from a year ago
  • ’15/16 global oil production of 7 main oilseed estimated at 109.3 MMT up 1.5% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 global soy meal production of 7 main oilseed estimated at 301.40 MMT up 3.1% from a year ago
  • ‘15/16 US bean crop estimated at 3.829 BB
  • ‘15/16 US bean yield estimated at 45.8

Reports continue that China will likely drop its minimum corn price by 20% from a year ago

Brazilian Trade Ministry – August exports

  • Soybeans = 5.16 MMT vs. 8.44 MMT in July and vs. 4.12 MMT in Aug 2014
  • Soy meal = 1.11 MMT vs. 1.71 MMT in July and vs. 1.64 MMT in Aug 20104
  • Bean oil = 259,872 tons vs. 93,064 tons in July and vs. 138,092 in Aug 2014
  • Corn = 2,284,178 tons vs. 1,280,279 tons in July and vs. 2,457,780 tons in Aug 2014

IMEA estimated ‘15/16 Mato Grosso soybean area at 9.2 MH up 2% from a year ago

Argentine farmers in flood-hit wheat areas will receive $4.3 million in tax breaks

Argentina government said Argentina June soybean exports were 10.0 MMT (record), said July soybean exports were 5.0 MMT

Argentina analysts estimated Aug soybean exports at 2.3 MMT

The Nation (Argentina Newspaper) reported said that the government said ‘15/16 wheat plantings may fall 2-5% or 800,000 hectares to 2.0 million hectares from ‘14/15 wheat area

Agritrend estimated total Argentina ‘15/16 bean, corn, sunflower, wheat and other grains area at 33.2 MH down 2% from a year ago

Agritrend estimated Argentina 2015 wheat area at 3.4 MH (smallest in 115 years)

Agritrend estimated Argentina 2015 corn area at 2.8 MH

Argritrend said Argentina’s 2015 corn crop may be the smallest in 25 years

Argritrend estimated Argentina 2015 bean area at 20.8 MH (record)

French wheat showing good test weight but low protein.

Ukraine has harvested 37.1 MMT of grain between July 1-Aug 31st vs. 35.7 MMT a year ago

Kazakhstan said Kazakhstan exported 816,600 tons of grain between July 1-Aug 31st vs. 755,700 tons a year ago

Today was the beginning of a new month

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 1,000
  • Corn sold 10,000
  • Beans sold 8,000
  • Meal sold 3,000
  • Bean oil sold 6,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • USDA will issue their estimate of corn grind for ethanol for the month of July this afternoon
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 700,000 barrels

o   Gas a draw of 2.0 million barrels

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Informa will come out sometime this week , still do not know what day,  at 1030 am CST. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2015 corn crop estimated at 13.412 BB

o   2015 corn yield estimated at 165.4 BPA

o   2015 bean crop estimated 3.789 BB

o   2015 bean yield estimated at 45.4 BPA

  • China markets will be closed Thursday and Friday for holiday
  • Stats Canada July 31st stock reports comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST . Expecting

o   All wheat average estimate 6.5 MMT vs. 10.351 MMT a year ago

o   Durum average estimate 1.1 MMT vs. 1.779 MMT a year ago

o   Canola average estimate 1.4 MMT vs. 2.438 MMT a year ago

o   Oats average estimate .7 MMT vs. 1.034 MMT a year ago

o   Barley average estimate .9 MMT vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

o   Flax average estimate .098 MMT vs. .084 MMT a year ago  

  • US markets will be closed Monday September 7th for Labor Day Holiday . Overnight markets will not be open Sunday night but will be open Monday night for Tuesday’s trade date.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday 9-11-15 at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for September futures is Monday Sept 14th . Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA August crush report is Tuesday Sept 15th . NOPA comes out at 11 am CST
  • October options expire on Friday Sept 25th. Options expire on the close

Option players:

  • RJO sold 500 Oct soybean 880 straddles at 42 ¾ -43
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct soybean 900 calls at 11 5/8 tied to futures at 876
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct soybean 810-850 put spreads at 7 ¾ tied to futures at 876
  • ICAP bought 500 Nov bean 870 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 830 puts at 1 ½ debit
  • RJO bought 2,000 Oct soybean 820-840 put spreads at 4-4 1/8 tied to futures at 873
  • Drax sold 500 Oct soybean 850 puts and sold 500 Oct corn 920 calls at 18 credit
  • FI sold 500 March corn 380 puts at 26 ¼ -26 ½
  • RJO bought Oct corn 370-390 call spreads and sold the Oct 350 puts at 4 ½ debit
  • RJO bought 1,200 Sept corn 450 calls and sold 400 May corn 390 straddles at 8-9 credit , tied to futures at 388
  • ABN sold 1,000 Nov corn 360-330 puts at 7 ¾ tied to futures at 381 ¼
  • Macquarie bought 500 Dec corn 350 puts at 9 ¼ tied to Dec futures at 371.
  • Rand bought 500 Dec corn 350 puts at 8 7/8
  • Rand bought 700 March 350p – 750c combos at 5 3/8 -5 ½ debit
  • Rosenthal sold 200 Oct wheat 490 straddles at 46 3/8 tied to futures at 485
  • Drax bought 1,000 Oct wheat 530 calls and sold 1,000 Nov wheat 520 calls at 6 ¼ -7
  • JP Morgan bought 300 Dec meal 290 puts at 7.95, tied to futures at 307.00
  • Drax bought 400 Dec meal 270 puts at 3.30 tied to Dec futures at 306.50
  • RJO bought 400 Dec meal 320-330 put spreads at 11.40
  • RJO bought 200 Oct meal 320
  • EDF bought 500 May bean oil 27 puts at 125
  • FI sold 300 Dec bean oil 26 puts at 60
  • FI sold 300 March bean oil 26 puts at 77
  • RJO bought 1,000 Oct bean oil 30 calls at 16 tied to futures at 2729

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

V15 370 20 / 20.50 26.20%

X15 370 30.5 / 31.5 27.60%

Z15 370 37.5 / 38.25 27.30%

H16 380 55 / 56 26.80%

K16 390 65.5 / 66.5 26.60%

N16 390 73 / 75 26.50%

Beans:

V15 880 42 / 44 23.75%

X15 880 59 / 61 22.75%

Z15 880 69 / 71 21.50%

F16 880 80 / 83 20.75%

H16 880 94 / 98 20.00%

K16 880 104 / 108 19.00%

N16 900 119 / 123 18.75%

U16 880 123 / 129 18.25%

X16 880 130 / 136 17.75%

Wheat:

V15 490 24.25 / 25.25 24.00%

Z15 490 45.50 / 47 25.25%

H16 490 66.50 / 68.50 25.25%

K16 500 77.50 / 81.50 25.25%

N16 500 87 / 91 25.25%

KC wheat:

V15 490 22 / 24 25.00%

Z15 490 39 / 41 25.25%

H16 500 67 / 69 25.00%

K16 510 79 / 82 25.00%

N16 510 90 / 94 25.00%

Minneapolis wheat:

Z15 510 40 / 44 22.50%

H16 530 62 / 66 22.50%

K16 540 73 / 78 22.50%

Meal:

V15 310 17.0 / 18.0 27.50%

X15 310 24.5 / 25.5 26.75%

Z15 310 29.5 / 30.5 26.00%

F16 310 33.0 / 34.0 24.25%

H16 310 37.5 / 38.5 22.50%

K16 310 40.0 / 42.0 20.75%

N16 300 42.0 / 44.0 20.00%

Q16 300 43.0 / 46.0 19.75%

U16 300 44.0 / 47.0 19.00%

V16 300 44.0 / 47.0 18.50%

Bean oil:

V15 27.5 150 / 170 28.50%

X15 27.5 210 / 230 26.25%

Z15 28.0 260 / 280 25.75%

F16 28.0 280 / 320 24.00%

H16 28.0 320 / 360 22.25%

K16 28.0 370 / 410 22.00%

N16 29.0 420 / 460 21.25%

Q16 29.0 420 / 470 20.50%

U16 29.0 430 / 480 20.00%

Crush quotes:

                Open                     Closes

Sep        113.5-118.0         112.0-114.0

Oct         109.0-111.0         109.0-112.0

Dec        107.0-108.0         106.0-107.0

Jan         101.0-102.5         101.0-103.0

Mch        95.5-98.0             96.5-101.0

May        89.0-90.5             89.5-90.0

Jly           87.5-90.0             88.5-90.0

Aug         87.5-92.0             86.5-90.0

Dec6       98.0-102.0           98.0-102.0

Nov/Sep 123.5-126.5         121.0-125.0

Jan/Dec  101.5-102.5        101.0-104.0

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE