From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap 04-23-15

News:

Japan bought 107,743 tons of food wheat for May-June shipment. Breakdown

  • 21,330 tons of US western white wheat
  • 24,990 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 25,543 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 35,880 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 53,000 tons of European origin corn for August shipment

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 59.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 58.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 53.4 MMT

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 30.0 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global corn crop at 951.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 941.0 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 production of 994.0 MMT

  • ‘15/16 China corn crop estimated at 219.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 216.0 MMT
  • ‘15/16 Serbia corn crop estimated at 7.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.2 MMT
  • ‘15/16 Mexican corn crop estimated at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.4 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global corn consumption at 969.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global corn ending stocks at 181.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 ending stocks of 198.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global wheat production at 705.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 709.0 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 production of 721.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global wheat consumption at 711.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global wheat ending stocks at 194.0 MMT vs. ‘14/15 ending stock s of 191.0 MMT

Oil World estimated Russia’s 2015 sunseed production at 9.5 MMT vs. 2014 production of 9.1 MMT

Oil World estimated Russia’s 2015 sunseed harvested area at 6.7 MH vs. 2014 area of 6.5 MH

Oil World estimated Russia’s 2015 sunseed average yield at 1.42 TPH vs. 1.41 TPH in 2014

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s 2015 sunseed production at 9.9 MMT vs. 2014 production of 10.1 MMT

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s 2015 sunseed harvested area at 5.2 MH , unchanged from 2014 area

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s 2015 sunseed average yield at 1.90 TPH vs. 1.94 TPH in 2014.

Ukraine’s Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 28.5 MMT of grain between July 1-April 23 vs. 29.1 MMT a year ago

Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report came out today at 930 am CST at +90 BCF, expecting +84 BCF

July beans closed above the 20 day moving average of 973 ¼ . July beans settled at 980.

July bean oil closed above the 100 day moving average of 3204. July bean oil settled at 3222.

Truckers’ strike, initial effects: From Brazilian contact

  • Early today hearing of a few protesters blocking spot roads and highways mainly in southern region, states of RS, SC and PR;
  • Some of them burned tires on pullover areas, but not really blocking passage of trucks;
  • Government has neither suggested a minimum freight rate table or has it decreased price of diesel oil;
  • Truckers keep on saying their margins are tight.
  • So far, intended strike movement is isolated and has not spread all over the country as expected.

Lanworth ’15/16 crop estimates

  • Russian wheat at 59.5 MMT
  • Ukraine wheat at 23.2 MMT
  • Canadian wheat at 31.1 MMT
  • Canadian canola at 16.3 MMT
  • US corn area at 88.5 MA
  • US bean acres at 85.7 MA

Estimated Fund Activity:

  • Wheat –  bought 2,000
  • Corn – sold 6,000
  • Beans – bought 6,000
  • Meal – bought 2,000
  • Bean oil – bought 3,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • May options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

Option players:

  • Marex sold 1,000 June bean 950 straddles at 43 ¾ -46
  • FC Stone bought 1,000 July short dated 900 puts at 5 ¾
  • ADM bought 1,000 July short dated 1000 calls at 12 ¾
  • FI bought 3,000 Nov bean 900-860 put spreads at 10 7/8
  • ABN sold 2,000 June corn 390 calls at 5 ½ -6
  • JP Morgan sold 1,000 July corn 360 p -400 c strangles at 14 1/8
  • Cunningham bought 1,000 Sept short dated corn 360 puts and sold 1,000 August short dated 360 puts at 2 debit
  • FI bought 15,000 Sept short dated corn 340-360 put spreads at 4 – broker said this is a new position.
  • FI bought 500 July wheat 450-420 put spreads at 3 3/8 -3 ½
  • Macquarie bought 400 July wheat 470 put and sold 400 May wheat 470 puts at 9 ¾ debit
  • Rand bought 500 July KC wheat 480-450 put spreads at 4 ½
  • FI bought 400 May meal 305 puts at 25
  • FI bought 500 May meal 310 puts at 30-35
  • Rand bought 1,000 Sept meal 350 calls at 4.90-5.00
  • Rosenthal sold 300 July bean oil 32 straddles at 185
  • FI bought 800 July bean oil 32-30.5 put spreads and sold 800 July bean oil 34 calls at 20 debit
  • ABN bought 400 July bean oil 29 puts at 11

Closing vols and ATM straddles:

Corn:

K15 370 3.5 / 4 17.00%

M15 380 17.75 / 18.5 20.50%

N15 380 29.5 / 30 23.25%

U15 390 47.75 / 48.5, 27%

Z15 400 61.75 / 62.5 25.75%

Beans:

K15 980 6 / 7 16.00%

M15 980 35 / 37 16.00%

N15 980 56 / 58 18.00%

Q15 980 77 / 79 19.75%

U15 960 86 / 89 20.00%

X15 960 103 / 105 19.25%

F16 960 115 / 119 18.75%

H16 980 128 / 133 18.50%

K16 980 138 / 144 18.25%

N16 980 147 / 153 18.00%

Wheat:

K   500 5 ½ / 7 19.50%

M  500 32 /34  28.50%

N  500 47/ 48  28.25%

U  510 63 / 66  27.25%

Z  530  81/ 84  25.75%

KC wheat:

K15 520 5 / 8 24.00%

M15 520 32 / 35 29.00%

N15 520 46 / 49 28.00%

U15 530 63 / 66  26.75%

Z15 550  80 / 84 24.75%

Minneapolis wheat

K15 545 4 / 5 17.00%

N15 560 41 / 46 23.00%

U15 570 59 / 64 23.50%

Z15 580 72 / 77 21.75%

Meal:

K15 315 3.0 / 4.0 20.00%

M15 310 13.5 / 14.5 19.00%

N15 310 21.0 / 22.0 20.25%

Q15 310 26.5 / 28.0 21.50%

U15 310 30.0 / 32.0 21.75%

V15 310 33.5 / 35.5 21.25%

Z15 310 38.0 / 40.0 20.75%

F16 310 39.5 / 41.5 20.00%

H16 310 43.0 / 45.0 19.50%

K16 310 45.0 / 49.0 19.00%

Bean oil:

K15 31.5 30 / 40 18.00%

M15 32.0 120 / 130 17.00%

N15 32.0 185 / 200 17.50%

Q15 32.0 230 / 245 18.00%

U15 32.0 260 / 280 18.00%

V15 32.0 300 / 320 18.25%

Z15 33.0 355 / 375 18.25%

F16 33.0 375 / 405 18.25%

H16 33.0 410 / 450 18.00%

K16 33.0 460 / 490 18.00%

N16 33.0 490 / 530 18.00%

Crush quotes:

OPEN             CLOSE

MAY        72-73              70-71

JLY            68-69              67-68

AUG        68-70              65.5-68

SEP          78-80              76-78.5

OCT         77-78              76.5-77

DEC         80-80.5           79.5-80

FZZ          73.5-74.5        73-74

JAN         77-78               76.5-78

MCH       76-77               75-76

MAY6     76-77               75-76.5

JLY6          75-77              74-76

Crush and oil share players:

  • No pit activity today

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE