From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 03/03/15

News:

Oil World said in their weekly report that Brazilian truck strike may shift soybean and soymeal demand to the US.

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India’s edible oil demand to hit 19.0 MMT after GDP has grown by an average of 6.7% in the last 5 years. 2014 veg oil imports were 12.0 MMT

India’s industry officials estimated India’s ‘14/15 veg oil imports at 12.5-13.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 imports of 11.6 MMT

India’s industry officials estimated India’s ‘14/15 palm oil imports at 9.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 imports of 8.0 MMT

Only about 7 roads in Brazil remained blocked by striking truck drivers vs. 18 roads yesterday and vs. over 100 roads a week ago

Argentine grain farmers call for a 3 day strike next week Wednesday –Friday

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 93.0 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 74.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Hearing Cordonnier estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 23.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2015 rapeseed production at 1.7 MMT vs. 2.2 MMT in 2014

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2015 rapeseed exports at 1.92 MMT

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2016 rapeseed exports at  1.74 MMT

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 4.4 MMT of grain between July 1-Feb 28th vs. 6.0 MMT a year ago.

Kazakhstan’s Ag Min estimated total ‘14/15 grain exports at 7.0 MMT

Japan seeks 130,929 tons of food wheat for April –May shipment. Breakdown

  • 14,570 tons of western white US wheat
  • 14,410 tons of hard red winter US wheat
  • 25,593 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 48,825 tons of Canadian  western red spring wheat
  • 27,531 tons of Australian white wheat

Informa came out today at 1030 am CST with their world production update estimates

  • Brazilian ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at  92.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 93.5 MMT
  • Brazilian ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 72.4  MMT vs. previous estimate of 72.8 MMT
  • Argentina ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 58.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.0 MMT
  • Argentina ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 23.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.0 MMT
  • India’s 2015 wheat crop estimated at 97.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 96.0 MMT
  • South Africa’s 2014 corn crop estimated at 10.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.0 MMT
  • 2015 world cotton production estimated at 110.5 million bales vs. previous estimate of 113.8 MB
  • China’s 2015 cotton production estimated at 24.45 million bales vs. previous estimate of 27.75 MB

Some US farmers book new crop bean sales on surprise rally last week .

May beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1011 ½ . May beans settled at 1012 ¼

May bean oil closed above the 100 day moving average of 3268. May bean oil settled at 3297

May meal closed above the 20 day moving average of 332.20. May meal settled at 332.80

May meal closed below the 50 day moving average of 334.70. May meal settled at 332.80

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn bought 6,000
  • Beans sold 4,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil sold 1,000

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Palm Oil conference in Kuala Lumpur continues tomorrow,
    • Key speakers are supposed to speak at tomorrow’s conference.
    • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting:
      • Crude a build of 3.95 MB
      • Gas a draw of 2.5 MB
      • Distillates a draw of 2.5 MB
      • CONAB comes out on Tuesday March 10thwith their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates . Previous estimates were
        • Bean crop at 94.6 MMT
        • Bean exports at 47.8 MMT
        • Total corn crop at 78.4 MMT
        • Argentina truckers may strike in the second half of March.

Open outcry option players:

Corn:

JPM bot 600 J 395 calls

ICAP bot 500 Z 420 calls/sold 250 CZ

Macquarie sold 500 K 380 puts/sold 225 CK

ICAP bot 500 Z 410 puts/bot 245 CZ

ICAP bot 500 J 390 calls

Beans:

GSA bot 2000 K 960 puts

ABN bot 1000 K 990 puts/bot 400 SK

RJO sold 1400 J 960 puts/sold 252 SK

JPM sold 2000 K 970 puts/sold 610 SK

Rosenthal bot 500 J 1080 calls

Rand but 500 X 900 puts/1100 call strangles

ABN sold 500 J 1030 calls

RJO sold 500 K 1020 calls

ABN sold 500 J 1030 calls/bot 1000 K 990 puts covered

XFA bot 500 K 700 puts

Rosenthal sold 350 N/X 30 cents CSO calls

Wheat:

GSA bot 1000 K 550-450 put spreads

ICAP bot 500 N 500 puts/bot 255 WN

FI bot 500 KCK 560 calls

Meal:

Bunge bot 500 K 330 puts

RJO bot 500 J 345 calls/sold 275 SMK

Rosenthal sold 500 N 320 straddles

FI bot 300 K 300 puts

Bache sold 200 K 350-370 call spreads

RJO sold 200 K 330 calls

JPM bot 200 K 300 puts/sold 200 K 360 calls

Oil:

FI bot 500 J 32 puts/sold 500 J 34 ½ calls

Mizuho bot 200 K 29 ½ puts

Closing vols and ATM straddles

Corn:

J vol 18 390 str 14 ½-15 ¼

K vol 24 390 str 28-28 ½

M vol 24 ¾ 400 str 36 ½-37 ½

N vol 26 ½ 400 str 47-47 ½

U vol 28 ¾ 410 str 63 ¾ -64 ½

Z vol 26 ¼ 410 str 74-74 ¾

Beans:

J vol 18 ¼ 1010 str 37 ½-39

K vol 21 1010 str 63 ½-65

N vol 21 ½ 1020 str 97 ½-98 ½

X vol 20 ¾ 980 str 128-129 ½

Wheat:

J vol 26 ½ 510 str 27-29

K vol 27 ½ 510 str 41-43

N vol 27 510 str 62-64

U vol 27 ½ 520 str 78-80

Z vol 25 ¾ 530 str 93-95

KC wheat:

J vol 26 ½ 530 str 28-30

K vol 27 530 str 42-44

N vol 26 ¼ 540 str 63-66

U vol 26 ¼ 550 str 79-82

Z vol 25 570 str 92-97

Minneapolis wheat:

K vol 21 ¾ 570 str 35-40

N vol 23 570 str 55-60

U vol 24 ¼ 580 str 72-78

Z vol 22 ½ 590 str 82-88

Meal:

J vol 26 330 str 15.5-17.5

K vol 25.75 330 str 25.5-27.5

N vol 23.5 330 str 35-37

Q vol 22.5 330 str 38-40

U vol 22 330 str 40-43

Z vol 20.5 320 str 44.5-46.5

Bean oil:

J vol 20 33 str 130-140

K vol 20 33 str 195-210

N vol 20 33 str 290-305

Q vol 20 33 str 320-345

U vol 20 33 str 350-375

Z vol 20 33 str 425-455

Crush quotes:

OPEN                 CLOSE

MCH        1.045-1.065      1.01-1.05

MAY        81.5-82.5           82-83.5

JLY            73-75                  74-75

AUG        72.5-75               73.5-76

SEP          83-87.5               84-87

OCT         84.5-86               84-85

DEC         83.5-84.5            83-84

JAN         81.5-83.5            81.5-82.5

MCH6     81-82.5               81.5-82.5

MAY6     76-80                   78-80

Crush and oil share players:

  • RJO sold 100 July crush at 71
  • Rosenthal sold 50 July crush at 73
  • Mizuho bought July oil share 370 oil /220 meal at 33.50%
  • Rosenthal sold May oil share 100 oil/ 100 meal at 33.30-33.33%

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE