From The Floor- An Afternoon Recap 02/11/15

News:

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 58.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 54.5 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 23.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.4 MMT

 

Lanworth estimated Paraguay’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 7.8 MMT down 2% from previous estimate.

 

Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for September shipment

 

South Korea MFG bought 45,000 tons of optional origin wheat for June shipment

 

Kazakhstan Statistical Agency said Kazakhstan’s total 2014 grain crop was 17.2 MMT , including

  • 13.0 MMT of wheat , down 6% from 2013

 

Headlines from USDA annual long-term projections report – Reuters

  • USDA sees falling crop prices leading to higher US government payments to farmers in 2015 -2017
  • USDA sees US ethanol production relatively flat over the next decade; ethanol to use about 35% of annual US corn crop
  • USDA sees US ‘15/16 soybean exports at 1.820 BB
  • USDA sees China’s ’15/16 total corn imports at 2.9 MMT , rising to 7.2 MMT by 2024/2025
  • USDA projects US ‘15/16 corn exports at 1.9 BB

 

Today was the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long March positions into May. Roll ends tomorrow. On the close:

  • 6,598 March /May bean spreads traded at -3 to -2 ¾
  • 7,207 March / May bean oil spreads traded at -21 to -22
  • 5,301 March /May soymeal spreads traded at 7.20-7.90
  • 21,114 March/ May corn spreads traded at -8 to -7 ¾
  • 10,322 March /May wheat spreads traded at  1 ¾ to 2 ½
  • 3,130 March /May KC wheat spreads traded at -1 ½ to -1

 

March corn closed above the 20 day moving average of 382 ½ . March corn settled at 385 ¾

 

March wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 521 ½ . March wheat settled at 525 ¾ .

 

March KC wheat closed below the 20 day moving average of 560. March KC wheat settled at 559 ¼ .

 

March Minneapolis wheat closed above the 20 day moving average of 572. March Minneapolis wheat settled at 576 ½ .

 

March bean oil closed above the 20 day moving average of 3151. March bean oil settled at 3172.

 

March soymeal closed above the 20 day moving average

 

Estimated fund activity:

  • Wheat bought 5,000
  • Corn sold 3,000
  • Beans bought 5,000
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil bought 3,000

 

Open outcry option activity:

  • ICAP bought 750 May bean 1020 calls at 16 ¼ -16 ½ and sold 240 May bean futures at 981
  • Rand bought 800 May bean 920 puts and sold 200 April bean 970 straddles at 3 debit.
  • Rosenthal sold 500 July bean 860 puts at 8 ¾ -9
  • FI bought 765 May bean 980 puts and sold 765 March bean 980 puts at 19-19 ½ and sold 107 March bean futures at 970
  • Jefferies bought 1,600 Sept corn 410 calls and bought 800 Sept corn 410 puts at 92 ¼ -92 ½.
  • ICAP sold 1,000 March corn 390 calls at 3 ¾ tied to March futures at 387 ½
  • ICAP bought 500 July corn 360 puts and sold 1,000 July corn 330 puts at 2 5/8 debit.
  • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 450-500 call spreads at 11 1/8 tied to Dec futures at 418 ½ .
  • ADM bought 1,100 April corn 405 calls at 6 5/8 -6 ¾.
  • RJO bought 1,000 July corn 430 calls and sold 1,000 May corn 350 puts at 11 3/8-11 ½ debit
  • Rand bought 1,000 May corn 420 calls at 6 3/8
  • FI bought 1,500 March short dated corn 410 puts at 1 7/ 8-2
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 July wheat 530 puts at 33 ½ -34 ¾
  • Jefferies bought 1,000 Sept wheat 530 puts at 37 ½ -39 ¼
  • Bunge sold 1,000 July meal 330-360 call spreads at 7.25
  • Drax bought 500 March bean oil 30 calls at 157 tied to March futures at 3150, 91 delta
  • JP Morgan bought 400 March bean oil 29 puts at 3

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST.
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • Wheat 300 -500,000 tons
    • Corn 600 -850,000 tons
    • Beans 250 -450,000 tons
    • Meal 150 -350,000 tons
    • Bean oil 10 -50,000 tons
    • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST, expecting -164 BCF.
    • Tomorrow is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll.

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn:

H vol 20 385 str 9 ¼ -10

J vol 19 ¼ 395 str 20 ½-21 ¼

K vol 21 ½ 395 str 29 ¾ -30 ¾

N vol 24 400 str 46-47

U vol 26 ½ 410 str 61 ¾-62 ¾

Z vol 24 ¼ 420 str 70 ¼ -71 ½

 

Beans:

H vol 16 ½ 980 str 20-21 ½

J vol 16 ¾ 980 str 45 ½- 46 ½

K vol 18 ¼ 980 str 63 ½ -64 ½

N vol 19 ½ 980 str 93-94

X vol 19 ¼ 960 str 122 ½ -124

 

Wheat:

H vol 25 ½ 530 str 16-18

J vol 25 ¼ 520 str 37-39

K vol 26 ¼ 520 str 48-50

N vol 26 ¼ 530 str 66-68

U vol 26 ½ 530 str 81-83

Z vol 24 ¾ 550 str 94-97

 

KC wheat:

H vol 23 ¼ 560 str 16-18

J vol 24 ½ 560 str 38-40

K vol 24 ¼ 560 str 47-50

N vol 24 ½ 560 str 66-69

U vol 24 ¼ 580 str 81-84

Z vol 23 ¼ 590 str 94-98

 

Minneapolis wheat:

H vol 20 ½ 580 str 15 ½-17 ½

K vol 21 ¾ 580 str 43-47

N vol 22 ¾ 580 str 61-66

U vol 23 ¼ 590 str 74-80

Z vol 22 ¾ 600 str 89-95

 

Meal:

H vol 20.5 330 str 8.50-9.50

J vol 23.75 320 str 20.5-22.5

K vol 23.75 320 str 27-29

N vol 22.75 320 str 35-37

Q vol 22 320 str 37.5-39.5

U vol 21.75 320 str 39.5- 41.5

V vol 20.75 310 str 40-42

Z vol 20 310 str 43-44.5

 

Bean oil:

H vol 20.5 32 str 80-90

J vol 20 32 str 170-190

K vol 20 32 str 220-240

N vol 20 32 str 300-325

Q vol 20 32 str 330-360

U vol 20 32 str 355-385

V vol 20 32 str 390-420

Z vol 20 32 str 430-460

 

Crush quotes:

Open                        Close

March      93.5-94.0              94.5-96.5

May          76.0-76.5              79.0-80.0

July           67.5-68.5              69.5-70.5

Aug           66.5-68.5              67.0-69.0

Sep           76.0-84.0              78.0-82.0

Oct           78.0-80.0              80.0-82.0

Dec           77.5-79.5              79.0-80.0

Jan6         75.5-78.5              76.0-79.0

Mch6       75.5-78.5             76.0-79.0

 

Crush and oil share players:

  • ABN sold 100 May crush at 75.5 -76.0
  • ABN sold 10 July crush at 68.25
  • Mann sold 30 Sept crush at 79.0
  • Mann sold 30 August crush at 68.75
  • RJO sold 20 March crush at 94.5
  • No oil share pit players today

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE