Bean Option Recap From Jon Karmin

Beans rocketed higher after traders covered their shorts initiated after last week’s very weak performance.  As far as I can tell the only bullish news is that  traders are overwhelmingly bearish and the market will not reward a crowded trade.  There is some re-balancing of index positions but not justifying the buying for this kind of move.  Weather in South America is decent with the prospect of increasing world carry out significantly.  Without a bullish surprise in next week’s report it is hard to find a reason to support this price level but until we flush out more of these shorts it will be very difficult to move anywhere lower.  The path of least resistance is most certainly higher so it possible that we could test last month’s highs before the report.  We traded and settle through both the 500 and 100 day MA last week and blew back through those in today’s rally.  My only suggestion going forward is to play the extremes.  When we reach levels which seem so compelling only then initiate the trade.  Everything else in between is just noise.  SG vol 24.25 up .75, SH vol 23.5 up .75, SK vol 22.75 up .75, SN vol 22.75 up .75, SX vol 21 up .75

 

Straddles

SG 1040 46.5-47.5

SH 1040 69.5-71

SK 1040 104-106

SN 1040 131-133

SX 1020 151-154

 

JP Morgan Bot 400 Feb 1080 Calls 3.75-4

JP Morgan Bot 400 Mch 1140 Calls 4.25-4.375

ADM Bot 400 Mch 1020 Calls 33/ Sold 200 Mch futures 1018

ADM Sold 500 May 1020 Puts 46.5/ Sold 200 Mch futures 1018

Jefferies Bot 300 Jul 980 Puts/Sold 600 Jul 880 Puts 12.5 db

DRAX Bot 1000 Mch 11450 Calls 4

FI Sold 2000 Mch 1020/980 Put spds 14.375-14.625 credit

FI Sold 3500 Mch 960/920 Put spds 5.25-6.5 credit

Obrien Bot 250 Feb 1000 Puts/ Bot 250 Feb 1060 Calls 23 db

ABN Bot 2000 Nov 820 Puts 11.5-12

ABN Bot 200 Nov 1100 Calls/ Sold 200 Nov 900 Puts 9-12.5 db

ABN Bot 200 Mch 1030/980 Put spds 18 db

Obrien Bot 200 Mch 1030 Puts/ Sold 400 Mch 950 Puts 15.75 db

ADM Bot 500 Mch 980/950 Put spds 6.375 db

Rosenthal Sold 500 Mch 1030/1000 Put spds 13 credit/ Sold 75 Mch futures 1027

ADM Sold 200 Mch 1030 Puts 30.25-32.5

Rand Bot 200 May 920 Puts/ Sold 400 May 840 Puts 5 db

ABN Bot 1000 May 1020/940 Put spds 24-25 db

ABN Bot 200 Mch 1000/960 Put spds 9.875 db

TJM Bot 250 May 1020/920 Put spds 28.5 db

DRAX Sold 500 Mch 1030/1060 Call spds 14.25 credit/ Bot 75 Mch futures 1038

ADM Sold 400 Mch 1020/1050 Call spds 16.25-16.5 credit

FI Sold 300 Mch 910 Puts 3.25/ Sold 18 Mch futures 1042.5

Cunningham Sold 500 Jul 1040 Puts/ Bot 500 Mch 960 Puts 48.5 credit

Cunningham Sold 250 Jul 1040 Puts/ Bot 250 Mch 1000 Puts 39.875 Credit

 

Jon Karmin (JSK)/Jeff Pogonitz (POG) Brokerage

 

Data source: Jon Karmin and Jeff Pogonitz bean option brokers