News From The Gran Floor

“There’s a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.”

–Steven Wright

 

USDA announced 101,600 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment .

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for June shipment. Should have the results sometime this morning.

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with ‘14/15 US winter wheat estimates and world production estimates. Previous estimates from Informa last month were ,

  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at 1.616 BB up 82 million from ‘13/14
    • Hard red winter wheat estimated at 953 MB vs 744 MB a year ago
    • Soft red winter wheat estimated at 447 MB vs. 565 MB a year ago
    • White wheat estimated at 216 MB vs. 225 MB a year ago
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at 46.5 BPA vs. 47.4 BPA a year ago
    • Hard red winter wheat yield estimated at 39.4 BPA vs. 36.8 BPA a year ago
    • Soft red winter wheat yield estimated at 60.9 BPA vs. 63.7 BPA a year ago
  • 2013 US cotton production estimated at 12.93 million bales
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 68.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop estimated at 23.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 86.75 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop estimated at 54.5 MMT

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 6 ¾ at 1467 ¾
  • CN up 1 ¼ at 508 ¼
  • WN up 6 ¾ at 714
  • KC WN up 9 at 813
  • MWN up 7 ¾ at 769
  • SMN up 1.50 at 478.20
  • BON up 47 at 4163
  • RRN  down 2 at 1549.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 17,186
  • CN 15,465
  • WN 6,722
  • KC WN 1,433
  • MWN 457
  • SMN 5,486
  • BON 10,907
  • RRN 20

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 8-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Crude, silver, and dollar higher. Gold and crude lower

 

Nikkei down .19%

Hang Seng up .6%

 

US April unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • April nonfarm payrolls at +288K expecting +215K
  • April unemployment rate at 6.3% expecting 6.6%
  • March nonfarm payrolls revised to +203K from +192K

 

Eurozone March unemployment fell to 18.91 million vs. 18.94 million in February

 

Eurozone March unemployment rate at 11.8% unchanged from February .

 

April mfg PMIs

  • Italy at 54.0 expecting 52.8 vs. March of 52.4
  • France at 51.2 expecting 50.9 vs. March of 52.1
  • Germany at 54.1 expecting 54.2 vs. March of 53.7
  • Eurozone at 53.4 expecting 53.3 vs. March of 53.0

 

China markets are closed today

 

Argentina markets are closed today

 

Palm oil down 32.

 

Reports of another 2-4 Brazilian bean cargoes have been booked to come into the US . Reports – about 18 Brazilian bean cargoes are coming to the US

 

Reports about 5 Argentine meal cargoes on the books for the US

 

Reports China bought a cargo of Brazilian beans for June-July shipment

 

Reports China seeking Brazilian beans for August shipment

 

Israel bought 108,000 tons of US or South American origin corn for July – Aug shipment

 

Israel bought 60,000 tons of feed wheat European or Black Sea origin for July – Sept shipment

 

Saudi Arabia seeks 550,000 tons of wheat from Europe, US, Canada, South America, and or Australia for June- August shipment

 

Final results from the US HRW wheat tour came out yesterday afternoon

  • Kansas HRW wheat crop estimated at 260.69 MB (lowest in 13 years) vs. 313.0 MB a year ago and vs. five year average of 328.1 MB
  • Kansas HRW wheat yield estimated at 33.2 BPA (lowest in 8 years) vs. 38.0 BPA a year ago and vs. five year average of 41.8 BPA
  • Oklahoma wheat council estimated OK wheat crop at 66.5 MB down 37% from a year ago

 

France ministry official said France will ban imports of live pigs and pork-based products from the US, Canada, Mexico , and Japan to fight against deadly PEDV pig virus. – Reuters

 

Midwest weather forecast is warmer and drier next five days , cooler and wet weather may return by late next week.

 

Rain is needed in US Plains. Only light scattered rain in forecast for the next 7-10 days

 

Favorable harvest weather in Argentina next 5-7 days.

 

19 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Danville IL

 

5 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

30  new oat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

July corn 50 day moving average is 495

 

July bean oil 200 day moving average is 4201

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 14 with the date at 3/14/14
  • Bean oil 320 with the date at 4/30/14
    • House Bunge stopped 82
    • House ADM stopped 42
  • Rice 26 with the date at 4/24/14
  • Corn 226 with the date at 2/5/14
  • Oats 30 with the date at 4/22/14
  • Wheat 143 with the date at 4/29/14
  • Minneapolis wheat 128 with the date current
  • No beans
  • No KC wheat

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,352,207 open, down 5,348
  • Total beans 595,112 open, down 10,811
  • Total meal 307,971 open, down 3,980
  • Total bean oil 308,629 open, up 32
  • Total wheat 356,549 open, down 2,292
  • Total KC wheat 147,313 open, up 2,558

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST expecting corn planting to be 35-40% complete
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting on Tuesday. May auction up to 3.0 MMT .
  • CONAB comes out on May 8th with their Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • USDA report comes out May 9th at 11 am CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on May 12th with their April palm oil data report

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE