News From The Grain Gloor 11/05/14

Good morning.

 

“Nothing can stop the man with the right mental attitude from achieving his goal; nothing on earth can help the man with the wrong mental attitude.”

–          Thomas Jefferson

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment. Should have results sometime this morning.

 

NO USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight volume

  • SF down 9 ½ at 1000 ¼
  • CZ down 3 ¼ at 361 ¼
  • WZ down 5 ¾ at 524 ¾
  • KC WZ down 3 ¾ at 586 ½
  • MWZ down 3 ¾ at 565 ½
  • SMZ down 2.50 at 370.00
  • BOZ down 45 at 3262
  • RRF up 1.50 at 1245

 

Overnight closes

  • SF 22,061
  • CZ 21,559
  • WZ 8,320
  • KC WZ 429
  • MWZ 277
  • SMZ 4,187
  • BOZ 13,927
  • RRF 46

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-10 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 40-50 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Stock market, dollar, and crude oil higher. Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei up .44%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index down .4%
US midterm elections were yesterday – Republicans took control of the US Senate and held control of the House.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 639,000 barrels expecting a build of 2.2 MB
  • Gas a build of 240,000 barrels expecting a draw of 400,000 barrels
  • Distillates a build of 155,000 barrels expecting a draw of 1.8 MB

 

China grain closings beans up 8, corn down 2, meal down 27, palm oil down 126 and bean oil down 116

 

Malaysian palm oil down 56.

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s November bean imports at 5.81 MMT vs. 4.2 MMT in October

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s December bean imports at 6.8 MMT

 

CNGOIC said Chinese buyers bought 1.8 MMT of US beans last week for shipment in the first quarter of next year.

 

Talk/Reports of bird flu in China yesterday.

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazilian farmers have sold 17% of their new crop beans vs. 33% a year ago and vs. 36% average.

 

FAO estimated India’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 13.73 MMT vs. 20.05 MMT of grain a year ago. Including

  • Wheat exports at 3.0 MMT down 50% from a year ago
  • Rice exports at 8.0 MMT down 20% from a year ago
  • Corn exports at 2.7 MMT down 22% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has exported 14.7 MMT of grain between July 1- October 29th

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 Argentine wheat crop at 12.5 MMT vs. official estimate of 12.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 10.5 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 Argentine corn crop at 22.0 MMT vs. official estimate of 23.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 26.0 MMT

 

Argentina grains Inspectors to strike on Wednesday

 

Pakistan imposes 20% import duty on wheat

 

Ag Resource Company estimated 2014 US corn yield at 176.0 BPA

 

Ag Resource Company estimated 2014 US corn crop at 14.627 BB

 

Improving US rail logistics.

 

Somar said widespread rains in Brazil between Nov 10-19

 

Favorable Brazilian weather

  • Rains in forecast today and tomorrow in Mato Grosso Brazil.

 

US weather concerns in US Plains are easing.

 

Favorable harvest weather in US Midwest

 

60 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA. Total bean oil receipts are now 3,955 registered.

 

There were 85 rice deliveries with the date current

 

There were 0 bean deliveries

 

Today is the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Roll ends on Monday. DB rolling long Dec 2014 corn into Dec 2015 corn.

 

Moving averages

  • SF 50 day is 981
  • CZ 100 day is 369
  • KC WZ 50 day is 594
  • MWZ 50 day is 570 ½
  • BOZ 50 day is 3266
  • SMZ 200 day is 360.70

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,304,397 open, up 5,616
  • November beans 14,168 open, down 3,717
  • Total beans 655,652 open, up 3,523
  • Total meal 378,056 open, up 6,471
  • Total bean oil 409,666 open, up 2,327
  • Total wheat 420,162 open, up 1,418
  • Total KC wheat 157,818 open, up 554

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.35 MB
    • Gas a draw of 600,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 2.2 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST.
  • US October unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and ends Thursday Nov 13th rolling long Dec positions into March .
  • Malaysian October palm oil data report comes out on Monday November 10th
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s November 1-10th palm oil exports on Monday November 10th.
  • USDA November crop production report comes out Monday November 10th at 11 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday November 11thwith their ‘14/15 Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT
    • Bean crop estimated at 88.83- 92.41 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 48.5 MMT
  • Last trading day for November futures is Nov 14th. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Nov 17th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for December options is 11/21/14 . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE