News From The Grain Flow

 

“If no one ever took risks, Michelangelo would have painted the Sistine floor.”

Neil Simon

 

Today is the last trading day for May futures. May futures expire at noon CST. Open interest in May futures as of yesterday’s close were

  • May corn 357 open, down 1,581
  • May beans 212 open, down 384
  • May meal 122 open, down 326
  • May bean oil 104 open, down 80
  • May wheat 160 open, down 219
  • May KC wheat 0 open, down 6
  • May rice 11 open, down 1

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down a ¼ at 1483 ½
  • CN down a ½ at 502 ¼
  • WN down 5 ¼ at 704
  • KC WN down 3 ¼ at 821 ½
  • MWN down 2 ¾ at 792
  • SMN down 2.50 at 482.20
  • BON up 39 at 4160
  • RRN up 1.50 at 1534

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 8,381
  • CN 6,845
  • WN 4,228
  • KC WN 868
  • MWN 100
  • SMN 3,292
  • BON 9,539
  • RRN 11

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 35-45 higher
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Gold , silver, and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei down .136%

Hang Seng up 1.031%

Shanghai Index down .139%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 912,000 expecting a draw of 100,000
  • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB expecting a build of 100,000
  • Distillates a build of 883,000 expecting a build of 530,000

 

China grain closings – beans up 77, corn down 5, meal up 46, palm oil up 26, bean oil up 48.

 

Palm oil up 14.

 

Reports – China is eyeing new crop US soybeans

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 55.7 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 54.9 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 23.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.0 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange said 68% of the bean crop is harvested vs. 80% three year average

 

Rosario Grains Exchange said 30% of the corn crop is harvested vs. 60% a year ago

 

Russia’s customs data showed Russia exported 2.8 MMT of wheat between Jan-March shipment vs. 424,700 tons a year ago

 

Report on Reuters – China’s top soy buyer says to honor import deals , take loss.  Shandong Sunrise Group (China’s largest bean buyer) said it will not default on bean contracts despite facing big losses, in order to protect its relationship with suppliers . Sunrise accounts for 12% of China’s bean imports. Buyers in China recently defaulted on at least 500,000 tons of bean shipments and threatened to default on more shipments. – Reuters

 

Report on DowJones – International Traders shy of long – term Ukraine grain export contracts. Ukraine’s foreign trade consultancy said, international grain traders are reluctant to sign long-term forward contracts for the export of Ukraine grain due to the political turmoil in the country. – DowJones

 

France AgriMer estimated France ‘13/14 soft wheat ending stocks at 3.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.3 MMT

 

France AgriMer estimated France ‘13/14 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 11.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.4 MMT

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 519,222 tons of palm oil in April up 6.5% from a year ago vs. Bloomberg survey average estimate of 550,000 tons

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 832,760 tons of veg oil in April up 27% from a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 5.16 MMT tons of veg oil between Nov – April down 2% from a year ago

 

Bloomberg survey of five analysts said Indonesia exported 1.85 MMT of palm oil in April (four month high) up 3.4% from March

 

Bloomberg survey of five analysts said Indonesia April palm oil output was 2.35 MMT up 12% from March

 

Bloomberg survey of five analysts said Indonesia April palm oil stocks were 2.0 MMT down 4.8% from March

 

Egypt has bought 2.0 MMT of local wheat since April 15th

 

July corn 50 day moving average is 501 ¼

 

July wheat 50 day moving average is 695 ¼

 

July bean oil 100 day moving average is 4089

 

July bean oil 200 day is 4185

 

Cold and wet weather in North Plains, Canadian Prairies next 5-6 days, may slow planting

 

Rains in the forecast for eastern Midwest , western Midwest drier. Cold temps in Midwest next 2-3 days , some crops may be at risk

 

Cold in Central/South Plains today and tonight.

 

50 new meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD Gilman IL

 

94 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of

  • 23 = ADM Hutchinson Elev I , KS
  • 71= Cargill Salina KS

 

13 oat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 50 with the date at 5/01/14
    • House ADM stopped 50
  • Corn 7 with the date at 4/29/14
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 4
  • Bean oil 104 with the date current
  • No Minneapolis wheat
  • No KC wheat
  • No beans

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,342,090 open, up 3,554
  • Total beans 590,510 open, up 4,013
  • Total meal 308,667 open, up 2,394
  • Total bean oil 310,254 open, up 3,885
  • Total wheat 369,589 open, down 717
  • Total KC wheat 146,143 open, up 1,543

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude unchanged
    • Gas a build of 300,000
    • Distillates a build of 500,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for May futures is today. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian May 1-15th palm oil export estimates.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • NOPA April crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Early estimates for crush are 131-133 MB or some analysts saying 136-137 MB
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE