News From The Grain Floor 9/25/14

Good morning.

 

“If you are going through hell, keep going.”

–          Winston Churchill

 

USDA announced 115,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of HRW wheat sold to Nigeria for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX unchanged at 936 ¾
  • CZ up a ¼ at 329 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ¾ at 476 ½
  • KC WZ down 4 at 560 ¼
  • MWZ down 2 ¼ at 535 ¾
  • SMZ down .70 at 307.30
  • BOZ up 27 at 3299
  • RRX up 3 at 1276

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,604
  • CZ 9,837
  • WZ 5,352
  • KC WZ 795
  • MWZ 441
  • SMZ 3,561
  • BOZ 10,288
  • RRX 120

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Crude and dollar higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei up 1.28%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai index up .1%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +12K to 293K expecting 296K

 

China grain closings = beans up 32, corn unchanged, meal down 11, palm oil up 74, and bean oil up 86

 

Malaysian palm oil up 44

 

South Korea bought 23,600 tons of US wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Europe is showing interest in US soymeal for January forward shipment

 

Argentina August crush was 3.487 MMT , 300,000 tons less than expected and vs. 3.680 MMT in August 2013

 

Analysts expect Argentine September crush to be 3.0 MMT vs. 3.577 MMT in September 2014.

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat =  ‘14/15 396,300 tons (expecting 350-500,000 tons)
  • Corn =  ‘14/15 836,400 ‘15/16 270,000 tons (expecting 600-900,000 tons)
  • Beans =   ‘14/15 2.57 million tons (expecting 1.5-2.7 million tons)
  • Meal =  ‘13/14 35,200 ‘14/15 45,500 tons (expecting 150-265,000 tons)
  • Bean oil =  ‘13/14 5,800 ‘14/15 – 2,800 tons (expecting 0-40,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat =  Net sales of 396,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 26 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Brazil (119,500 MT), Mexico (68,600 MT), Japan (56,100 MT), unknown destinations (52,100 MT), the Philippines (33,300 MT, including 27,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), Vietnam (32,400 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (16,600 MT). Decreases were reported for Honduras (8,600 MT). Exports of 474,400 MT were down 39 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (100,300 MT), the Philippines (81,300 MT), Mexico (75,800 MT), Malaysia (59,100 MT), Thailand (50,100 MT), Vietnam (32,400 MT), and Brazil (27,500 MT).  
  • Corn = Net sales of 836,400 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Mexico (461,100 MT), Japan (146,400 MT, including 139,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 23,200 MT), Peru (84,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (49,000 MT), and Colombia (42,200 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (41,000 MT), Ireland (9,500 MT), and South Korea (1,700 MT). Net sales of 270,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 1,038,600 MT were primarily to Mexico (312,800 MT), Japan (236,600 MT), Egypt (148,400 MT), Peru (109,000 MT), Colombia (86,600 MT), South Korea (58,700 MT), and Venezuela (40,000 MT).
  • Beans = Net sales of 2,565,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for China (2,384,900 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Egypt (102,700 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations) the Netherlands (75,900 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Bangladesh (52,000 MT), and Mexico (34,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (134,000 MT). Exports of 415,500 MT were primarily to China (165,800 MT), Egypt (93,700 MT), the Netherlands (75,900 MT), Mexico (45,800 MT), and Japan (11,900 MT).
  • Meal = Net sales of 35,200 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (14,700 MT), Canada (8,700 MT), the Philippines (4,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,800 MT), Bangladesh (2,500 MT), and Japan (1,700 MT, including 1,300 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Jamaica (2,000 MT) and unknown destinations (1,300 MT). Net sales of 45,500 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for Canada (46,800 MT), Nicaragua (5,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), and unknown destinations (4,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Mexico (20,700 MT) and Jamaica (1,000 MT). Exports of 54,300 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (24,200 MT), Canada (16,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (8,800 MT), Jamaica (2,000 MT), and Japan (1,700 MT).
  • Bean oil = Net sales of 5,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 46 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nicaragua (4,100 MT), Mexico (700 MT), Canada (500 MT), and Belgium (200 MT). Net sales reductions of 2,800 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for the Dominican Republic (2,000 MT) and Australia (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (5,000 MT). Exports of 2,200 MT were up 49 percent from the previous week, but down 74 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (2,000 MT) and Trinidad (100 MT).

 

US weather remains favorable

 

Report of good to excellent US bean and corn yields continue

 

62 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 4,444 receipts remain registered

  • 9 out of Solae Gibson City IL
  • 50 out of Ag Processing Emmetsburg IA
  • 3 out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

1 KC wheat receipt was canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. A KS . 777 receipts remain registered

 

Estimates for Tuesday’s USDA 2014 US wheat crop and quarterly stocks report. Report comes out at 11 am CST

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks as of September 1st.

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.880 BB , range of estimates are 1.707-1.980 BB . US June 1st, 2014 wheat stocks were .590 BB and Sept 1st , 2013 wheat stocks were 1.870 BB
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.185 BB, range of estimates are 1.020-1.350 BB. US June 1st, 2014 corn stocks were 3.854 BB and Sept 1st , 2013 corn stocks were .821 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .126 BB, range of estimates are .100-.150 BB. US June 1st 2014 bean stocks were .405 BB and Sept 1st, 2013 bean stocks were .141 BB

 

Estimates for US 2014 wheat crop

  • All wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 2.037 BB, range of estimates are 2.004-2.075 BB. USDA August estimate was 2.030 BB and US 2013 all wheat crop was 2.130 BB
  • All winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.394 BB, range of estimates are 1.376-1.413 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.397 BB and US 2013 all winter wheat crop was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .728 BB, range of estimates are .707-.758 BB. USDA August estimate was .729 BB and US 2013 HRW wheat crop was .744 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .465 BB, range of estimates are .437-.472 BB. USDA August estimate was .466 BB and US 2013 SRW wheat crop was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .201 BB, range of estimates are .193-.213 BB. USDA August estimate was .202 BB and US 2013 WW wheat crop was .225 BB
  • Other spring wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .580, range of estimates are .558-.608 BB. USDA August estimate was .572 BB and US 2013 other spring wheat crop was .534 BB.
  • Durum wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .062 BB , range of estimates are .056-.070 BB. USDA August estimate was .061 BB and US 2013 durum wheat crop was .062 BB

 

Estimates for US 2013 bean production . 8 of the last 10 September stocks reports revised estimate for the prior year’s bean crop.

  • US 2013 bean crop (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 3.362 BB, range of estimates are 3.289-3.400 BB and USDA previous estimate was 3.289 BB.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,278,283 open, up 958
  • Total beans 755,110 open, up 3,359
  • Total meal 347,565 open, up 4,992
  • Total bean oil 385,788 open, up 368
  • Total wheat 410,730 open, down 5,174
  • Total KC wheat 147,606 open, down 1,979

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +96 BCF
  • Last trading day for October options is tomorrow. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Rogers roll begins Sept 29th and ends Oct 1st. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • Position day for October meal and oil is Monday Sept 29th
  • First notice day for October meal and oil is Tuesday Sept 30th
  • Tuesday Sept 30th USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains summary report comes out at 11 am CST – Report estimates should be out sometime today .
  • Tuesday Sept 30th is the end of the month and the end of the quarter
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins October 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. DB roll last for 5 days and they roll a few thousand spreads per day
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE