News From The Grain Floor 9/24/14

Good morning

 

‘As long as financial markets are set up in a way that they’re paying young men large bonuses to produce profits, there’s always going to be people pushing the edges

–          John Rusnak

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ¾ at 939
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 327 ¼
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 481 ¾
  • KC WZ up 7 ¼ at 569 ¼
  • MWZ up 6 ½ at 541
  • SMZ down .30 at 308.60
  • BOZ up 29 at 3261
  • RRX up 2.50 at 1268.50

 

Dec corn made a new contract low overnight of 324 ¾ technical

 

Dec meal made a new contract low overnight of 307.20

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,483
  • CZ 8,812
  • WZ 6,448
  • KC WZ 1,624
  • MWZ 507
  • SMZ 4,553
  • BOZ 7,816
  • RRX 33

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat  6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal steady to .50 lower
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude lower

 

Nikkei down .24%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai index up 1.5%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 6.5 MB expecting a build of 400,00 barrels
  • Gas a build of 91,000 barrels expecting a draw of 100,000 barrels
  • Distillates a build of 3.0 MB expecting a build of 600,000 barrels

 

China grain closings – beans up 14, corn up 6, meal down 3, palm oil up 60, and bean oil up 36

 

Malaysian palm oil up 29

 

Lack of fresh news this morning.

 

Some reports China is shifting their soybean demand from the US to South American due to cheaper prices

 

Ruchi Soya executive estimated India’s ‘14/15 edible oil imports at 13.0 MMT (record) vs. 11.6 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Ruchi Soya executive estimated India’s ‘14/15 palm oil imports at 9+ MMT vs. 8.0 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Ruchi Soya executive estimated India’s ‘14/15 sunflower imports at 1.65 MMT vs. 1.55 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Market talk Nigeria has bought 40,000 tons of US soft red winter wheat

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 23,000 tons of US corn Nov – Dec shipment

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 12,000 US soybeans Nov –Dec shipment

 

South Korea bought 13,500 non-GM soybeans for Nov –Dec shipment

 

South Korea bought 21,000 tons of Chinese origin rice for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Japan seeks 93,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender

 

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Ethiopia seeks 200,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Jan shipment

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine 2014 grain crop at 60.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 63.0 MMT

 

US soybean cash premiums collapse on record harvest. Cash prices for US beans have dropped by as much as $5 per bushel since last week . – Reuters

 

Reports of excellent US corn and bean yields continue

 

Clear warm weather in the Midwest the next 7 days

 

230 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL . 384 wheat receipts remain registered

 

97 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon, 15 out of Ag Processing Emmetsburg IA and 82 out of Cargill Ackley IA. 4,506 bean oil receipts remain registered.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,227,045 open, down 3,184
  • Total beans 751,593 open, up 58
  • Total meal 342,646 open, down 1,059
  • Total bean oil 385,361 open, up 6,838
  • Total wheat 416,102 open, up 2,015
  • Total KC wheat 149,593 open, up 355

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 750,000 barrels
    • Gas unchanged
    • Distillates a build of 500,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Tomorrow surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-25th palm oil exports
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for October options is Friday. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.
  • Rogers roll begins Sept 29th and ends Oct 1st. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • Position day for October meal and oil is Monday Sept 29th
  • First notice day for October meal and oil is Tuesday Sept 30th
  • Tuesday Sept 30th USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains summary report comes out at 11 am CST – Report estimates should be out sometime today .
  • Tuesday Sept 30th is the end of the month and the end of the quarter
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins October 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. DB roll last for 5 days and they roll a few thousand spreads per day
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE