News From The Grain Floor 9/23/14

Good morning

 

If you smile when no one else is around, you really mean it

–          Andy Rooney

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US sorghum sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up a ½ at 938 ¾
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 327 ¾
  • WZ down a ¼ at 476 ½
  • KC WZ down a ½ at 559 ¾
  • MWZ down a ½ at 536 ¼
  • SMZ down .30 at 310.20
  • BOZ up 23 at 3235
  • RRX up 11 at 1266

 

Nov beans made new contract lows overnight of 931

 

Dec meal made a new contract low overnight of 308.00

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,253
  • CZ 17,508
  • WZ 5,749
  • KC WZ 729
  • MWZ 198
  • SMZ 5,024
  • BOZ 10,005
  • RRX 30

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady easier
  • KC wheat steady easier
  • Minneapolis wheat steady easier
  • Meal steady to .50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice 10-15 higher

 

Dollar, silver, and stock market lower. Gold and crude higher

 

Japan is on holiday today

 

Hang Seng down .5%

Shanghai Index up .9%

 

Flash September manufacturing PMIs

  • China HSBC at 50.5 expecting 50.0 and vs. Aug final of 50.2
  • Eurozone at 50.5 as expected vs. Aug final of 50.7
  • Germany at 50.3 expecting 51.2 and vs. Aug final of 51.4
  • French at 48.8 expecting 47.0 and vs. August final of 46.9

 

Chinese grain closings – beans down 18, corn down 1, meal up 11, palm oil down 50, and bean oil down 4

 

Malaysian palm oil up 39

 

Hearing China bought 2-3 Brazilian new crop bean cargoes for March – April shipment

 

Hearing Sinograin (China) bought 1 Argentine new crop bean cargo for May shipment

 

Hearing China bought a few cargoes of US beans for Dec-Jan shipment

 

United Arab Emirates seeks 107,000 tons of optional origin wheat

 

UAE seeks 25,000 tons of optional origin corn

 

UAE seeks 30,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Sept 13-19th total crush volume at 1,490,650 tons up 13.76% from a week ago
  • For the week Sept 13-19th total crush capacity utilization at 5059% up 6.12% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-Sept 19, 2014) total crush volume at 69,305,038 tons up 15.53% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – Sept 19, 2014) total crush volume at 50,756,241 tons up 13.06% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 12th total imported bean stocks at 6.1052 MMT vs. 6.2582 MMT from a week ago and up 4.52% from a year ago
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.998 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.2 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0-6.2 MMT

 

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global oilseed production at 519.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 507.2 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 498.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global soybean production at 310.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 306.7 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 285.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 rapeseed production at 67.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 68.7 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 70.0 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 sunseed production at 41.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 41.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 production of 42.5 MMT

 

Oil world said total ‘14/15 global oilseed use is estimated at 502.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 491.8 MMT vs. ‘13/14 use of 485.2 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global soybean use at 292.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 290.2 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 use of 274.8 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global rapeseed use at 68.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 69.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 use of 67.3 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global sunseed use at 41.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘13/14 use of 42.1 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global oilseed ending stocks at 102.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 99.6 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 ending stock estimate of 84.9 MMT

 

Oil World estimated ‘14/15 global soybean ending stocks at 89.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.4 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 ending stock estimates of 70.3 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min said as of Sept 22nd Russia had harvested 90.8 MMT of grain on 34.9 MH with an average yield of 2.6 TPH a year ago Russia harvested 74.6 MMT of grain on 33.8 MH with an average yield of 2.21 TPH

 

Ukraine weather forecaster said heavy rains which cover almost all Ukrainian regions will create perfect conditions for good winter grain harvest next year

 

Tunisia Ag Min said 2014 grain crop at 2.34 MMT vs. 1.3 MMT a year ago

 

Tunisia Ag Min said grain imports expected to drop by 80% in 2015

 

Favorable US weather continues

 

Reports of excellent yields in the US continue

 

54 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Scoular Company Salina KS. There are a total of 778 KC wheat receipts now registered

 

Nebraska corn harvest is only 3% complete vs. 9% average

 

Nebraska bean harvest is only 1% complete vs. 5% average

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 55% good to excellent a year ago
  • Dented 90% vs. 82% a week ago and vs. 92% five year average
  • Mature 42% vs. 27% a week ago and vs. 54% five year average
  • Harvested 7% (expecting 10-15% complete) vs. 4% a week ago and vs. 15% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 71% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 50% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 45% vs. 24% a week ago and vs. 53% five year average
  • Harvested 3% (expecting about 4% complete) vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 8% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 86% (expecting about 89% complete) vs. 74% a week ago and vs. 92% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Planting 25% (expecting about 23% complete) vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 22% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 71% a year ago
  • Harvested 46% vs. 36% a week ago and vs. 53% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 48% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 44% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 58% vs. 51% a week ago and vs. 60% five year average
  • Harvested 8% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,280,072 open, up 10,196
  • Total beans 750,637 open, up 8,247
  • Total meal 344,744 open, up 7,609
  • Total bean oil 378,673 open, up 6,459
  • Total wheat 414,088 open, up 14,595
  • Total KC wheat 149,171 open, up 777

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 750,000 barrels
    • Gas a draw of 300,000 barrels
    • Distillates a build of 350,000 barrels
  • Weekly US ethanol production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Thursday surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-25th palm oil exports
  • Last trading day for October options is Friday. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.
  • Rogers roll begins Sept 29th and ends Oct 1st. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • Position day for October meal and oil is Monday Sept 29th
  • First notice day for October meal and oil is Tuesday Sept 30th
  • Tuesday Sept 30th USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains summary report comes out at 11 am CST
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins October 2nd. They will be rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. DB roll last for 5 days and they roll a few thousand spreads per day
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Oct 7th and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE