News From The Grain Floor 9/22/14

Good morning

 

You should never underestimate the predictability of stupidity

–          Bullet Tooth Tony

 

Egypt GASC bought 55,000 tons of US soft red winter wheat over the weekend for October shipment

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 15 at 942
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 328 ¾
  • WZ up 4 ¼ at 478 ¾
  • KC WZ up 3 at 563 ¼
  • MWZ up 2 ½ at 563 ¼
  • SMZ down 4.60 at 310.80
  • BOZ down 38 at 3220
  • RRX down 3.50 at 1266.50

 

Nov beans made new contract lows overnight of 941

 

Dec corn made new contract lows overnight of 328

 

Dec meal made new contract lows overnight of 310.80

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 31,920
  • CZ 15,833
  • WZ 11,691
  • KC WZ 829
  • MWZ 322
  • SMZ 6,215
  • BOZ 9,411
  • RRX 27

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 12-16 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 4.00-5.00 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Nikkei down .71%

Hang Seng down 1.4%

Shanghai index down 1.66%

 

China grain closings = beans down 48, corn down 7, meal down 81, palm oil down 90 , and bean oil down 130

 

Malaysian palm oil down 22

 

Reports that China bought 14+ cargoes of beans from the US and South America last week.

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – Aug imports

  • Wheat 35,339 tons down 91.54% from a year ago
  • Barley 323,283 tons up 73.19% from a year ago
  • Corn 133,666 tons up 1156% from a year ago
  • Rice 145,465 tons up 27.65% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 6,033,061 tons down 5.26% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 288,036 tons up 4.23% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 19,559 ton down 83.21% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 24,412 tons up 349.41% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 172,352 tons up 51.54% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 562 tons down 29.75% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 310,428 tons down 42.2% from a year ago

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – Jan – Aug imports

  • Wheat 2,706,732 tons up 27.46% from a year ago
  • Barley 3,517,555 tons up 154.45% from a year ago
  • Corn 3,517,555 tons up 154.45% from a year ago
  • Rice 1,646,487 tons up 4.73% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 47,712,749 tons up 16.22% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 3,411,758 tons up 48.97% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 615,794 tons down 47.93% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 213,950 tons up 1057% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 812,512 tons up 16.55% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 15,655 tons up 21.52% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 3,644,645 tons down 5.91% from a year ago

 

South Korea KFA bought 60,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 9.898 MMT of grain between July 1st – Sept 17th up 26% from a year ago

 

US weather remains favorable

 

Reports of excellent yields continue.

 

16 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL . Total bean oil registered is 4,603 receipts

 

92 KC wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Salina KS. Total KC wheat receipts registered is now 832.

 

12 rice receipts were canceled Friday afternoon total registered now at 158

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Sept 16th . Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 81,618
  • KC wheat short 12,958
  • Corn long 15,300
  • Beans short 84,448
  • Meal long 12,416
  • Bean oil short 16,266

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,270,246 open, up 14,731
  • Total beans 743,090 open, up 8,821
  • Total meal 337,579 open, up 588
  • Total bean oil 371,959 open, up 3,991
  • Total wheat 399,491 open, up 2,205
  • Total KC wheat 148,395 open, up 1,695

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CST . Expecting
    • Bean and corn conditions to be unchanged from a week ago
    • Corn harvest to be 12-15% complete
    • Bean harvest to be 4-6% complete
    • Spring wheat harvest to be almost complete.
  • China’s HSBC Sept flash mfg PMI comes out tonight
  • Eurozone flash Sept mfg PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Last trading day for October options is Friday. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.
  • Tuesday Sept 30th USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains summary report comes out at 11 am CST

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE