News From The Grain Floor 9/19/14

Good morning

 

A lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.

–          Mark Twain

 

USDA announced 1.236 MMT of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 . This is part of the contract the Chinese trade delegation signed this week to buy 4.8 MMT of US beans in ‘14/15

 

USDA announced 375,936 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US small grains summary (wheat, barley and oat crops) Previous estimates were

  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat production estimated at  1.369 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.396 BB
  • ‘14/15 US winter wheat yield estimated at  42.2  BPA vs. previous estimate of 42.6 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US Hard red winter wheat estimated at 702  MB vs. previous estimate of 744 MB
  • ‘14/15 US hard red winter wheat yield estimated at  32.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 33.2 BPA
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat estimated at  459 MB vs. previous estimate of 477 MB
  • ‘14/15 US soft red winter wheat yield estimated at  63.0  BPA
  • ‘14/15 US white wheat estimated at 208 MB

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage updates Previous estimates were

  • US corn acreage estimated at 91.581  MA vs. USDA March estimate of 91.7 MA
  • US bean acreage estimated at 81.778 MA vs. USDA March estimate of 81.5 MA
  • US all wheat acreage estimated at 56.2  MA vs. USDA March estimate of 55.8 MA
  • US cotton acreage estimated at 10.776  MA vs. USDA March estimate of 10.9 MA

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US acreage and production estimates

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ½ at 965
  • CZ down 1 ¾ at 336 ½
  • WZ down 5 ¼ at 483 ¼
  • KC WZ down 3 ¼ at 566 ½
  • MWZ down 3 ¾ at 546 ½
  • SMZ down 3.20 at 317.10
  • BOZ down 16 at 3271
  • RRX unchanged at 1262

 

Nov beans made a new contract low overnight of 964

 

Dec meal made a new contract low overnight of 315.90

 

Dec wheat made a new contract low overnight of 483

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low overnight of 565 ¾

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 545 ¾

 

Dec corn did not make a new contract low overnight. The low overnight was 336 ¼ and the contract low is 335 ¾

 

Dec bean oil did not make a new contract low overnight. The low overnight was 3265 and the contract low is 3152.

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 18,105
  • CZ 7,938
  • WZ 5,391
  • KC WZ 719
  • MWZ 407
  • SMZ 6,340
  • BOZ 7,330
  • RRX 10

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower

 

Nikkei up 1.58%

Hang Seng up .6%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

China grain closings – beans down 22, corn down 1, meal down 49, palm oil down 44, and bean oil down 102

 

Malaysian palm oil down 36

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • Estimated ‘14/15 corn area at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said 4.3% of the corn crop has been planted vs. 2% a week ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 sunflower area at 1.35 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said 20.6% of the sunflower crop has been planted vs. 18.2% a week ago and vs. 18.9% a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has harvested 38.5 MMT of grain on 10.5 MH with an average yield of 3.67 TPH. A year ago Ukraine harvested 34.1 MMT of grain on 10.6 MH with an average yield of 3.21 TPH

 

US weather remains favorable

 

Report of excellent corn and bean yields continue.

 

20 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL . Total wheat receipts registered are 614

 

82 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . Total bean oil receipts registered are at 4,619

  • 65 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 6 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL
  • 11 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,255,957 open, up 3,625
  • Total beans 735,936 open, up 2,253
  • Total meal 338,526 open, down 1,310
  • Total bean oil 368,463 open, down 148
  • Total wheat 397,273 open, up 59
  • Total KC wheat 146,700 open, up 400

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday Sept 22nd with their Malaysian Sept 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Last trading day for October options is Friday September 26th. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.
  • Tuesday Sept 30th USDA quarterly grain stocks report and small grains summary report comes out at 11 am CST

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE