News From The Grain Floor 9/18/2014

Good morning

 

“The greatest pleasure in life is doing what people say you cannot do.”

–          Walter Bagehot

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 2 ¼ at 980 ¼
  • CZ down 2 ¼  at 339 ½
  • WZ down 5 at 494 ¼
  • KC WZ down 3 ¾ at 578 ½
  • MWZ down 4 at 559
  • SMZ down .40 at 323.80
  • BOZ down 20 at 3335
  • RRX up 3.50 at 1254.50

 

Dec KC wheat made new contract low overnight of 578

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 559

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,646
  • CZ 9,056
  • WZ 4,231
  • KC WZ 857
  • MWZ 210
  • SMZ 3,799
  • BOZ 7,789
  • RRX 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market higher. Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei up 1.13%

Hang Seng down .9%

Shanghai Index up .4%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -36K to 280K expecting 305K

 

China grain closings = beans down 7, corn down 4, meal up 14, palm oil up 36, and bean oil up 16

 

Malaysian palm oil down 3

 

South Korea NOFI bought 132,000 tons of feed corn for Jan-Feb shipment , optional origin

 

South Korea NOFI bought 55,000 tons of South American meal for March shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

Japan bought 109,095 tons of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Breakdown

  • 28,125 tons of US western white wheat
  • 29,185 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 28,015 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 23,770 tons of Canadian western spring wheat

 

 

Talk China continues to buy new crop Brazilian bean cargoes

 

China sold 625,844 tons of corn at this week’s auction. They offered 5.02 MMT

 

Hearing China crush margins at the best levels since January

 

CONAB to hold another corn auction today.

 

CME lowers corn futures initial margins for specs by 16.7% to $1,375 from $1,650

 

CME lowers bean futures initial margins for specs by 16.7% to $2,750 from $3,300

 

CME lowers meal futures initial margins for specs by 25% to $1,650 from $2,200

 

CME lowers bean oil futures initial margins for specs by 39.1% to $770 from $1,265

 

CME lowers wheat  futures initial margins for specs by 13.3% to $1,430 from $1,650

 

Oil World said Argentina exported 1.2 MMT of biodiesel between Jan – September vs. 760,000 tons a year ago .

 

Oil World said India imported 7.1 MMT of palm oil between Oct 2013 –Aug 2014 vs. 7.7 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World said India imported 1.8 MMT of soybean oil between Oct 2013-Aug 2014 vs. 995,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World said India imported 1.4 MMT of sunflower oil between Oct 2013-Aug 2014 vs. 891,000 tons a year ago

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2014 EU wheat crop at 147.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 144.5 MMT

 

Russia’s federal statistics agency said Sept 1st grain stocks were at 39.4 MMT up 19% from a year ago

 

Analysts expecting Brazilian ‘14/15 bean area to increase by 3-5% from ‘13/14 area

 

Brazilian bean planting season starts on Monday.

 

Mato Grosso farmers waiting for rain, areas too dry, no rains in forecast

 

SUPARA (Customs Union of Argentine Republic) to hold a 4 day strike starting today.

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of Sept 10th Argentine farmers have sold 70.09% of wheat crop vs. 97.49% a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of Sept 10th Argentine farmers have sold 70.40% of their corn crop vs. 76.07% a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min said as of Sept 10th Argentine farmers have sold 58.35% of their bean crop vs. 68.35% a year ago

 

110 new rice receipts registered yesterday afternoon

 

110 rice deliveries with the date at 9/12/14

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat –  314,500 tons (expecting 450-650,000 tons)
  • Corn –  659,700 tons (expecting 550-750,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 1.47 M tons ‘15/16 2,400 tons (expecting 1.1-1.4 million tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 16,200 ‘14/15 183,500 tons (expecting 100-275,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 10,700 ‘14/15 17,800 tons (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 314,500 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 54 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (119,400 MT), Chile (47,300 MT), Venezuela (29,200 MT), Algeria (20,000 MT), Mexico (20,000 MT), Italy (17,200 MT), and Nigeria (14,800 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (6,200 MT). Exports of 771,800 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 38 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (164,000 MT), Mexico (93,100 MT), South Korea (68,000 MT), Sri Lanka (65,700 MT), Brazil (55,000 MT), Malaysia (49,900 MT), and the Philippines (49,800 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 659,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Peru (142,500 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (126,000 MT, including 4,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (104,500 MT), Guatemala (84,200 MT, including 35,800 MT switched from Costa Rica and 21,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (68,300 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (32,300 MT), Canada (8,300 MT), and Egypt (3,200 MT). Exports of 722,400 MT were primarily to Mexico (175,200 MT), Japan (91,400 MT), South Korea (87,000 MT), Colombia (69,000 MT), Egypt (64,800 MT), Peru (61,400 MT), Guatemala (40,100 MT), and Venezuela (37,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,466,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for China (546,300 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (469,100 MT), Egypt (73,000 MT), Germany (67,400 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), and Canada (50,700 MT). Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (1,300 MT). Net sales of 2,400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan. Exports of 204,200 MT were primarily to Germany (67,400 MT), China (59,200 MT), Malaysia (25,200 MT), Mexico (15,500 MT), and Costa Rica (12,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 16,200 MT for 2013/2014 were for Venezuela (26,000 MT), Guatemala (9,100 MT, including 9,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 400 MT), Trinidad (3,100 MT), Canada (2,000 MT), unknown destinations (800 MT), and Bangladesh (700 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (25,900 MT) and Honduras (700 MT). Net sales of 183,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Mexico (121,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (24,000 MT), unknown destinations (10,100 MT), and Turkey (8,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Ecuador (4,000 MT) and Trinidad (3,000 MT). Exports of 67,000 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (26,900 MT), Canada (19,500 MT), Costa Rica (5,300 MT), Venezuela (4,000 MT), and Saudi Arabia (3,900 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 10,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up 84 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (5,500 MT), Nicaragua (4,100 MT), El Salvador (800 MT), and Trinidad (200 MT). Net sales of 17,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (10,000 MT), Mexico (5,500 MT), Colombia (2,000 MT, and the Dominican Republic (300 MT). Exports of 1,500 MT were down 76 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (1,000 MT, Trinidad (200 MT), and Canada (200 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,252,003 open, down 3,741
  • Total beans 733,613 open, up 5,633
  • Total meal 339,867 open, down 653
  • Total bean oil 368,776 open, down 430
  • Total wheat 397,196 open, down 1,123
  • Total KC wheat 146,302 open, up 729

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +90 BCF.
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US small grains summary (wheat, barley and oat crops)
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage updates
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US acreage and production estimates
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday Sept 22nd with their Malaysian Sept 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Last trading day for October options is Friday September 26th. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE