News From The Grain Floor 9/16/14

Good morning.

 

When baseball isn’t fun anymore, we’re all going to be in trouble.”

–          Holway & Carroll

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

FSA acreage data came out this morning at 345 am CST. Analysts said we did rally off of these numbers , but the rally did not hold

  • Corn prevented plantings 1.58 million acres (expecting down 1.0-2.5 million acres)
  • Beans prevented plantings 840,000 acres (expecting down 800,000 -1.5 million acres)
  • Wheat prevented plantings  1.36 million acres

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment. Should have results sometime this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 at 991 ½
  • CZ up 3 at 346
  • WZ up 2 ¾ at 503 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¼ at 589 ½
  • MWZ up 2 ½ at 571
  • SMZ up 1.70 at 328.70
  • BOZ up 3 at 3350
  • RRX  down 8 at 1268

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low of 567 ¼ overnight

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low overnight of 584 ½

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 30,205
  • CZ 35,730
  • WZ 10,846
  • KC WZ 1,383
  • MWZ 379
  • SMZ 6,470
  • BOZ 15,287
  • RRX 60

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 7-9 lower

 

Crude , dollar, and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher.

 

Nikkei down .23%

Hang Seng down .92%

Shanghai Index down 1.89%

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today. Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST

 

China grain closings = beans up 32, corn down 2, meal up 18, palm oil up 24 and bean oil up 84

 

Malaysian markets are closed today for holiday. Trade resumes tomorrow.

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of durum wheat for Jan shipment

 

China held a bean auction today. China sold 69,594 tons of beans (or 21.07% of total offered) out of the 330,122 tons they offered.

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week of Sept 6-12th total crush volume at 1,310,250 tons up 2.43% from a week ago
  • For the week Sept 6-12th total crush capacity utilization at 44.47% up 1.06% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013- Sept 12, 2014) crush volume at 67,814,388 tons up 15.80% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1- Sept 12, 2014 ) crush volume at 49,265,591 tons up 13.34% from a year ago
  • As of Sept 12th total imported bean stocks at 6.2582 MMT vs. 6.3291 MMT a week ago and up 3.15% a year ago
  • Estimated September bean imports at 4.998 MMT
  • Estimated October bean imports at 4.2 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.0-6.2 MMT

 

Reuters report said China’s bean imports could slump due to their crush margins being at their lowest levels in several years

 

China trade delegation signed memorandums for 4.8 MMT of US beans yesterday – Bloomberg

 

China said to discuss changes to US grain import inspections, Chinese regulators discussed changing inspection requirements for shipments of US corn byproducts , according to 4 people with direct knowledge. – Bloomberg

 

Ukraine state statistics service said Sept 1st grain stocks at 23.4 MMT up 15% from a year ago

 

Russian Ag Min said as of Sept 15th Russia harvested 86.7 MMT of grain on 32.9 MH (70.5% of total area) with an average yield at 2.64 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 71.7 MMT of grain on 32.3 MH with an average yield 2.22 TPH

 

US Agriculture Secretary Vilsack says “reasonably sure” final 2014 renewable fuel standard targets will be higher – Reuters

 

US Agriculture Secretary said administration committed to getting ethanol use targets to 15.0 billion gallons –Reuters

 

Continued reports of excellent early corn and bean yields being seen in the US

 

Northern Midwest saw its first freeze of the season but damage to bean and corn crops should be limited due to temperatures not staying cold long enough to hurt yield potential

 

35 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • 2 out of ADM Lacon IL
  • 33 out of Elburn Cooperative Inc. Morris IL

 

There is now a total of 42 corn receipts registered

 

116 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 6 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 25 out of Ag Processing Omaha NE
  • 85 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

There were 41 corn deliveries with the date at 9/12/14.

 

There were 2 mini corn deliveries with the date at 9/09/14

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a week ago) vs. 53% good to excellent a year ago
  • Dented 82% vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 85% five year average
  • Mature 27% vs. 15% a week ago and vs. 39% five year average
  • Harvested 4% (expecting 7-10% complete) vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1% from a week ago) vs. 50% a year ago
  • Dropping leaves 24% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 32% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Harvested 74% (expecting about 71% complete) vs. 58% a week ago and vs. 86% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Planting 12% (as expected) vs. 3% a week ago and vs.11% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 73% a year ago
  • Harvested 36% vs. 26% a week ago and vs. 45% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 49% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Bolls opening 51% vs. 39% a week ago and vs. 49% five year average
  • Harvested 6% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 7% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,251,087 open, up 4,577
  • Total beans 720,488 open, up 13,5297
  • Total meal 339,254 open, up 933
  • Total bean oil 369,609 open, down 3,634
  • Total wheat 393,817 open, down 591
  • Total KC wheat 145,447 open, up 2,071

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • URGARA (Argentina Union of Grain Receivers and Annexes) will hold a 24 hour strike on Wednesday
  • SUPARA (Customs Union of Argentine Republic) to hold a 4 day strike starting Thursday
  • CONAB to hold a new corn auction on Thursday. They will offer 1.75 MMT of corn.
  • Last trading day for October options is Friday September 26th. Options expire on the close at 115 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.185 MB
    • Gas a draw of 343,750
    • Distillates a build of 543,750
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement tomorrow at 1 pm CST.

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE