News From The Grain Floor 9/15/14

Good morning.

 

Writing is the only profession where no one considers you ridiculous if you earn no money.

–          Jules Renard

 

USDA announced 118,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of corn sold to Mexico for ‘15/16 shipment

 

NOPA August crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Expecting

  • Crush average estimate 111.636 MB vs. July crush of 119.62 MB and vs. Aug 2013 crush of 110.502 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.352 billion lbs. vs. July bean oil stocks of 1.589 billion and vs. Aug 2013 stocks of 1.669 billion
  • Meal exports , no estimate is given. July meal exports were 391,781 tons and Aug 2013 meal exports were 306,684 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 6 ¼ at 979
  • CZ down 2 ½ at 336
  • WZ down 4 ¾ at 497 ¾
  • KC WZ down 4 at 589 ½
  • MWZ down 5 at 573
  • SMZ down 1.70 at 326.20
  • BOZ down 19 at 3258
  • RRX down 7 at 1271.50

 

Dec corn matched contract low overnight of 335 ¾ .

 

Dec corn made a new contract low overnight of 496

 

Dec KC wheat made a new contract low overnight of 588 ¼

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 572 ¾

 

Dec meal made a new contract low overnight of 325.00

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 23,078
  • CZ 10,022
  • WZ 6,697
  • KC WZ 1,074
  • MWZ 346
  • SMZ 6,920
  • BOZ 14,814
  • RRX 201

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Crude lower. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher .

 

Nikkei up .24%

Hang Seng down .99%

Shanghai Index down .45%

 

China grain closings beans up 32, corn up 4, meal up 3, palm oil up 30, and bean oil up 72

 

Malaysian palm oil up 15.

 

Saudi Arabia bought 610,000 tons of hard wheat from the EU , South American, US, and Australia for Dec-Jan shipment
SGS estimated Malaysian palm oil Sept 1-15th palm oil exports at 735,334 tons up 33.7% from August 1-15th

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-15th palm oil exports at 750,425 tons up 31.5% from Aug 1-15th

 

Hearing China was pricing new crop South American beans on Friday

 

Hearing China bought 4 cargoes of US beans on Wednesday for Oct and Jan shipment. Did not buy any US beans on Thursday or Friday

 

Hearing Chinese palm oil port stocks are below 900,000 tons.

 

Last week China sold 943,145 tons of corn at auction. They offered 5.0 MMT of corn

 

So far this year China has sold 26.2 MMT of corn out of the 75.9 MMT of corn they offered

 

On Friday South Korea bought 55,000 tons of South American soymeal. South American soymeal is at a $20 discount to US meal

 

Conference in Shanghai today

  • Dorab Mistry said palm oil prices should trade at 1,900 ringgits over the next few weeks
  • Dorab Mistry said global edible oil supply seen rising 7.6 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Dorab Mistry said global edible oil demand seen rising 5.2 MMT in ‘13/14
  • Dorab Mistry estimated 2014 Malaysian palm oil output at 19.7-19.9 MMT
  • Dorab Mistry estimated 2014 Indonesia palm oil output at 30.5 MMT
  • Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister said China’s total veg oil consumption in 2013 at 35.4 MMT
    • China’s 2013 palm oil consumption at 6.3 MMT or 17.7% of China’s total
    • Malaysian Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister said they would like to see China’s palm oil consumption to increase to 30% of the total oils and fats consumed
    • LMC International said China will need to import more palm oil to meet shortage

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India

  • India’s veg oil stocks at 1.82 MMT on September 1st
  • India imported 789,858 tons of palm oil in August (8 month high) up 51% from a year ago
  • India imported a record 350,373 tons of bean oil in August
  • India imported 1.32 MMT of edible oils in August
  • India imported 1.33 MMT (record) of veg oils in August up 76% from a year ago
  • India imported 9.53 MMT of veg oil between Nov-Aug up 8% from a year ago
  • Estimated total veg oil imports in ‘13/14 at 11.5 MMT (record) vs. 10.7 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World updates:

  • Said August soybean exports from the G5 major countries fell to a multi month low.
  • Said August corn exports from the G5 countries were 9.15 MMT vs. 7.75 MMT in July and vs. 6.05 in Aug 2013.
  • Said US exported 1.17 MMT of DDGS in July (record) with almost half going to China.
  • Said US exported 7.2 MMT of DDGS between Jan-July up 48% from a year ago
  • Estimated bean oil use for biodiesel in US, Argentina, and Brazil between Aug-December 2014 at 3.6 MMT up 600,000 tons from a year ago
  • Expects bean oil exports from US, Brazil, and Argentina to fall 200,000 – 300,000 tons between Aug-Dec 2014.

 

South Korea Daehan canceled tender for 26,900 tons of wheat due to high prices

 

Argentine government said Argentina farmers are holding 21.5 MMT of beans and other analysts are saying Argentine farmers are holding 25+ MMT of soybeans

 

Rabobank estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 24.0 MMT

 

Midwest warmer and drier this week, should allow for harvest. Some parts of US have heavy storms in forecast for later this week

 

No widespread freeze damage

 

12 new soymeal receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of Owensboro Grain Company , Owensboro KY

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 12 with the date current
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped two
    • KC wheat 3 with the date current
      • ADM stopped 3
      • No Minneapolis wheat
      • No Chicago wheat
      • No beans
      • No corn

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting steady to down 1% for corn and bean good to excellent conditions
  • China to auction 330,000 tons of beans from state reserves tomorrow
  • FSA acreage data comes out tomorrow , analysts expecting FSA to lower acres
  • FOMC two day policy meeting begins tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Fed announcement on Wednesday at 1 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE