News From The Grain Floor 9/10/14

Good morning.

 

“A woman would never make a nuclear bomb. They would never make a weapon that kills. They’d make a weapon that makes you feel bad for a while.”

–          Robin Williams

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 at 993 ¾
  • CZ down a ¼ at 344
  • WZ down 3 ¼ at 524 ¼
  • KC WZ down 3 ¼ at 619 ¾
  • MWZ down 3 ½ at 601 ¾
  • SMZ down .50 at 338.20
  • BOZ up 2 at 3174
  • RRX unchanged at 1235.50

 

Nov beans made a new contract low overnight of 990

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 601 ¼

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3152

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,120
  • CZ 9,533
  • WZ 3,936
  • KC WZ 456
  • MWZ 243
  • SMZ 4,403
  • BOZ 9,153
  • RRX 21

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady better
  • Corn steady easier
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal steady lower
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Crude and stock market lower. Dollar and silver higher. Gold trading both sides.

 

Nikkei up .25%

Hang Seng down 2.00%

Shanghai Index down .36%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 1.9 MB expecting a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Gas a build of 719,000 expecting a draw of 200,000
  • Distillates a build of 1.7 MB expecting a build of 600,000

 

China grain closings = beans down 35, corn down 8, meal down 45, palm oil down 74, and bean oil down 96

 

Malaysian palm oil down 2.

 

Hearing China bought a few US bean cargoes off the Gulf for Dec –Jan shipment yesterday.

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their August palm oil data report

  • Palm oil stocks at 2.054 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.96 MMT and vs.  July palm oil stocks of 1.681 MMT.
  • Palm oil output at 2.03 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.92 MMT and vs. July palm oil output of 1.666 MMT.
  • Palm oil exports at 1.44 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.35 MMT and vs.  July palm oil exports of 1.447 MMT

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports at 487,955 tons up 40.6% from Aug 1-10th

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports at 484,330 tons up 36.1% from Aug 1-10th

 

India’s Food Minister said there are no immediate plans to raise edible oil import taxes

 

China Ag Min said rains the last 10 days of August ended drought in northern and northeast China and may have boost corn yields.

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated ‘14/15 corn planting area at 3.7 MH down 700,000 hectares from ‘13/14

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated ‘14/15 wheat planting area at 4.36 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Argentine grains warehouse workers will strike for at least 24 hours on Wednesday for higher wages said a local labor leader.

 

Japan received no offers for SBS tender for 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,00 tons of feed barley for Dec shipment .

 

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Dec shipment

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 830,000 tons of grains between Sept 1-8th.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukrainian farmers have started winter grain planting for 2015 grain harvest

 

Rusagrotrans said Russia exported a record 4.7 MMT of grains in August

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 300,000 tons of grain between Sept 1-3.

 

FranceAgriMer ‘14/15 French crop estimates

  • Soft wheat exports outside the EU estimated at 8.0 MMT down 34.5% from ‘13/14
  • Soft wheat exports inside the EU estimated at 8.1 MMT up 18.5% from ‘13/14
  • Soft wheat ending stocks estimated at 3.9 MMT (highest in 12 seasons) up 66.3% from ‘13/14
  • Corn ending stocks estimated at 3.9 MMT (highest in 18 seasons) up 68.4% from ‘13/14

 

AGPM estimated 2014 French corn crop at 17.25 MMT

 

AGPM estimated 2014 French corn yield at 10.2-10.3 TPH

 

Malaysia bought 200,000 tons of rice from Thailand and are in talks to buy more.

 

79 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon.

  • 5 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga, SD
  • 10 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL
  • 64 out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 55 with the date current
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 2
    • KC wheat 10 with the date at 9/03/14
      • House ADM stopped 9
      • Oats 38 with the date at 8/22/14
      • No corn
      • No beans
      • No meal
      • No wheat
      • No Minneapolis wheat

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Sept corn 2,704 open, down 1,032
  • Total corn 1,229,546 open, up 7,887
  • Sept beans 162 open, down 76
  • Total beans 694,982 open, up 6,289
  • Sept meal 802 open, down 721
  • Total meal 337,072 open, up 324
  • Sept bean oil 90 open, down 83
  • Total bean oil 371,780 open, up 4,071
  • Sept wheat 545 open, down 103
  • Total wheat 391,638 open, up 1,159
  • Sept KC wheat 72 open, down 154
  • Total KC wheat 138,217 open, up 1,281

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas unchanged
    • Distillates a build of 1.0 MB
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
    • The CBOT will be having 2 moments of silence for the victims of September 11th tomorrow. 1st one is 718-719 am CST and the second one is 828-829 am CST. Please try not to call the desk during those times.
    • Brazil to hold another corn auction tomorrow.
    • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
    • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST , see attachment for recap table for report
    • Last trading day for Sept futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST.
    • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th
    • FSA acreage certification stats comes out on September 15th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE