News From The Grain Floor 9/08/14

Good morning.

 

Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise.  Seek what they sought.

–          Matsuo Basho

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of soybeans sold to China for ‘14/15

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ¼ at 1014 ¼
  • CZ down 6 ¾ at 349 ¾
  • WZ down 8 ¼ at 527
  • KC WZ down 9 at 619 ½
  • MWZ down 6 at 605 ½
  • SMZ down 3.20 at 345.90
  • BOZ down 10 at 3236
  • RRX up 4.50 at 1253.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 21,953
  • CZ 17,214
  • WZ 6,035
  • KC WZ 876
  • MWZ 649
  • SMZ 5,461
  • BOZ 8,508
  • RRX 25

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn 6-8 lower
  • Wheat 8-10 lower
  • KC wheat 8-10 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Gold, stock market, and crude lower. Silver and dollar higher.

 

China markets were closed today for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

 

Nikkei up .23%

Hang Seng down .20%

 

China’s August trade balance report came out yesterday

  • August trade surplus $49.8 billion record expecting surplus of $40 billion
  • August exports +9.4% from year ago expecting +8.0%
  • August imports -2.4% from year ago expecting +1.7%

 

Malaysian palm oil up 17 (3 week highs)

 

Indonesia is expected to cut its crude palm oil export tax to 0% in October .

 

Hearing China bought at least 5 cargoes of US beans on Thursday night off the Gulf for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Hearing China bought 3 cargoes of new crop Brazilian beans on Thursday night

 

Hearing China bought 3 cargoes Argentina beans last week for May-June shipment

 

China customs data showed China imported 6.03 MMT of beans in August vs. 7.47 MMT in July and down 5.3% from a year ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 47.7 MMT of beans between Jan – August up 16.2% from a year ago

 

China customs data showed China imported 470,000 tons of veg oils in August down 27.7% from a month ago

 

Morocco seeks up to 386,600 tons of US soft wheat for Dec shipment

 

Morocco seeks 330,000 tons of US durum wheat for Dec shipment

 

A letter by Russia’s Grain Union, seen by Reuters, proposes to halt or limit grain exports in ‘14/15 if they reach 26.9 MMT, a ceiling below forecasters’ estimates for Russian exports. The Russian Ag Min said it did not send the letter – Reuters

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU ‘14/15 rapeseed crop at 23.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.9 MMT and up 10% from ‘13/14 crop

 

Strategie Grains estimated EU ‘14/15 sunseed crop at 8.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.2 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 8.9 MMT

 

Weather models are warmer for the upcoming week.

 

Vietnam Food Association said Vietnam exported 627,089 tons of rice in August up 2% from a month ago

 

Thai government will open tender to sell around 140,000 tons of rice from stocks this week.

 

One new ethanol receipt was registered Friday afternoon

 

301 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon. Total registered is 5,121

  • 164 out of Bunge Emporia KS
  • 137 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL

 

Informa 2014 US crop estimates from Friday

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.281 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.988 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 170.3 BPA vs. previous estimate of 168.0 BPA
    • IL yield estimated at 194.0 BPA vs. USDA of 188.0 BPA
    • IN yield estimated at 181 BPA vs. USDA of 179.0 BPA
    • IA yield estimated at 190 BPA vs. USDA of 185.0 BPA
    • OH yield estimated at 178 BPA vs. USDA of 177.0 BPA
    • WI yield estimated at 158.0 BPA vs. USDA of 156.0 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 3.876 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.7 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 46.1 BPA vs. previous estimate of 44.5 BPA
      • IA yield estimated at 53.0 BPA vs. USDA of 50.0 BPA
      • NE yield estimated at 54.0 BPA vs. USDA of 52.0 BPA

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday afternoon. Large spec positions as of 9/02/14 , futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 69,611
  • KC wheat short 8,972
  • Corn long 11,621
  • Beans short 70,405
  • Meal long 32,055
  • Bean oil short 19,275

 

Deliveries

  • KC wheat = 9 with the date at 8/29/14
    • House Term stopped 9
    • Ethanol = 1 with the date at 9/04/14
      • House ADM stopped 1
      • Bean oil = 199 with the date at 9/04/14
        • Customer JP Morgan stopped 96
        • House Term issued 16
        • House Bunge issued 120
        • No Minneapolis wheat
        • No Chicago wheat
        • No meal
        • No beans
        • No corn

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Sept corn 4,316 open, down 2,078
  • Total corn 1,226,857 open, down 14,394
  • Sept beans 341 open, down 78
  • Total beans 686,879 open, up 1,997
  • Sept meal 2,053 open, down 347
  • Total meal 338,625 open, up 4,871
  • Sept bean oil 474 open, down 357
  • Total bean oil 366,679 open, up 2,259
  • Sept wheat 931 open, down 967
  • Total wheat 390,704 open, down 697
  • Sept KC wheat 297 open, down 66
  • Total KC wheat 137,476 open, up 1,007

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Corn conditions unchanged from a week ago
    • Bean conditions unchanged from a week ago
    • Spring wheat conditions down 1-2% from a week ago
    • Spring wheat harvest 41-45% complete
    • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian crop estimates for ‘13/14
    • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Wednesday with their Malaysian August palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting,
      • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.96 MMT (seven month high) in July palm oil stocks were 1.681 MMT.
      • Palm oil output average estimate is 1.92 MMT in July palm oil output was 1.666 MMT.
      • Palm oil exports average estimate is 1.35 MMT in July palm oil exports were 1.447 MMT
  • ABARES comes out this week with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports on Wednesday Sept 10th
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Sept futures is Friday. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th
  • FSA acreage certification stats comes out on September 15th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE