News From The Grain Floor 9/04/14

Good morning.

 

You never know what is enough, until you know what is more than enough.

–          William Blake

 

Informa has been delayed a day, no reason given. Informa does not come out until tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates.

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 at 1017
  • CZ down a ½ at 351 ½
  • WZ down 3 at 532 ¾
  • KC WZ up 4 at 620 ¾
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 611 ½
  • SMZ down 3.10 at 347.30
  • BOZ up 23 at 3218
  • RRX up .50 at 1253

 

Dec wheat made new contract lows overnight of 531 ½

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 608 ½

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,446
  • CZ 17,640
  • WZ 8,163
  • KC WZ 1,663
  • MWZ 586
  • SMZ 4,030
  • BOZ 9,954
  • RRX 14

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar, stock market, and silver higher. Gold and crude lower.

 

Nikkei down .33%

Hang Seng down .08%

Shanghai index up .78%

 

ECB lowered benchmark interest rates to .05% from .15% expecting unchanged.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out today at +4K ton +302K expecting 300K

 

US July trade balance report

  • US July trade deficit shrank .6% from June to $40.55 billion expecting a deficit of $42.5 billion
  • US July exports up .9% to $198.02 billion
  • US July imports up .7% to $238.7 billion

 

China grain closings = beans down 37, corn up 5, meal down 44, palm oil down 6, bean oil down 30

 

Malaysian palm oil up 52

 

China sold 1.36 MMT of corn at Sept 3-4 auctions. They offered 5.0 MMT of corn

 

South Korea KFA bought 63,000 tons of Brazil corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea CJ bought 26,100 tons of US wheat for Jan shipment

 

South Korea seeks 13,500 tons of non-GM beans optional origin for Nov-Dec shipment

 

Japan bought 110,146 tons of food wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Breakdown

  • 24,995 tons of US western white wheat
  • 10,750 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 30,295 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 20,006 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 24,100 tons of Australian white wheat

 

 

Brazil to hold another corn auction sometime today.

 

Agrawal estimated ‘13/14 Indian meal exports at 3.0 MMT vs. 3.47 MMT a year ago

 

Indian soymeal traders delay export deals on price drop and harvest – Bloomberg

 

IKAR estimated ‘14/15 Russia’s grain exports at 33.0 MMT , including 23.0 MMT of wheat, 4.5 MMT of barley , and 4.3 MMT of corn

 

ProZerno estimated ‘14/15 Russia’s grain exports at 32.7 MMT , including 23.5 MMT of wheat, 4.5 MMT of corn and 3.6 MMT of barley

 

Russia may start buying grains for state reserves in October

 

Analyst said domestic meal tightness is a long way from being resolved.

 

Report continue of excellent early US corn and bean yields.

 

US weather remains favorable except a couple of maps imply possible frost in northern Midwest and Canada Sept 12-14th.

 

59 new oat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

40 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon total remaining is 5,430

  • 20 out of Zeeland Farm Services Inc. Portage IN
  • 4 out of Minnesota Soybean Processing Omaha NE
  • 16 out of Ag Processing Omaha NE

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 45 with the date at 7/29/14
  • Bean oil 826 with the date at 8/29/14
    • House Bunge stopped 340
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 488
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 126
    • KC Wheat 249 with the date at 8/29/14
      • House Term stopped 227
      • Wheat 2 with the date at 8/13/14
      • Oats 59 with the date at 8/1/14

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Sept corn 8,264 open, down 6,225
  • Total corn 1,233,181 open , up 14,343
  • Sept beans 715 open, down 202
  • Total beans 678,566 open, up 5,352
  • Sept meal 2,964 open, down 954
  • Total meal 336,831 open, down 1,953
  • Sept bean oil 1,605 open, down 566
  • Total bean oil 361,142 open, up 1,416
  • Sept wheat 2,905 open, down 1,474
  • Total wheat 391,746 open, up 10,387
  • Sept KC wheat 594 open, down 19
  • Total KC wheat 134,854 open, up 673

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +74 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.45 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • US August unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will come out tomorrow at 730 am CST with crop stocks report as of July 31, 2014. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 10.7 MMT , range of estimates 9.2 – 12.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 10.9 MMT and a year ago all wheat stocks were 5.052 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 1.8 MMT, range of estimates 1.6-2.0 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.0 MMT and a year ago durum stocks were 1.152 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 3.0 MMT, range of estimates 2.4-3.8 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 3.0 MMT and a year ago canola stocks were .588 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 1.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.0-1.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 1.325 MMT and a year ago oat stocks were .506 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 2.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.7-2.5 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.25 MMT and barley stocks a year ago were .983 MMT
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop at 13.988 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield at 168.0 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop at 3.7 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield at 44.5 BPA
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • ABARES comes out on Monday with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports on Wednesday Sept 10th
  • MPOB will release August palm oil data report on Sept 10th
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Thursday Sept 11th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Sept futures is Friday Sept 12th . Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th
  • FSA acreage certification stats comes out on September 15th.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE