News From The Grain Floor 9/03/14

Good morning .

 

If we ever forget that we are One Nation Under God, then we will be a nation gone under.

–          President Ronald Reagan

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for October shipment.

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 at 1027
  • CZ down 3 ½ at 360 ¼
  • WZ down 7 ¾ at 547 ¼
  • KC WZ down 4 ¼ at 628 ¼
  • MWZ down 3 ¾ at 619
  • SMZ down 2.30 at 357.70
  • BOZ down 3 at 3209
  • RRX up 2 at 1263

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3193.

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 21,024
  • CZ 21,752
  • WZ 15,591
  • KC WZ 1,452
  • MWZ 615
  • SMZ 5,540
  • BOZ 9,145
  • RRX 18

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 7-9 lower
  • KC wheat 4-6 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Dollar lower. Stock market, gold, silver, and crude higher.

 

Nikkei up .38%

Hang Seng up 2.20%

Shanghai Index up .98%

 

Possible ceasefire in the Ukraine.

 

China grain closings = beans down 6, corn up 1, meal up 8, palm oil up 40, and bean oil up 6

 

Malaysian palm oil up 25.

 

Hearing China was eyeing US soybeans for January shipment yesterday

 

South Korea CJ seeks 51,300 tons of US wheat for Jan shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 129,000 tons of feed corn optional origin for Jan –Feb shipment

 

South Korea KFA seeks 60,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

 

South Korea bought 9,090 tons of China origin rice for Dec shipment

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn production at 14.649 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.734 BB

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn yield at 173.7 BPA vs. previous estimate of 174.5 BPA

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 bean crop at 3.852 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.855 BB

 

Lanworth estimated US 2014 bean yield at 46.7 BPA unchanged from previous

 

Allendale estimated 2014 US corn crop at 14.409 BB

 

Allendale estimated 2014 US corn yield at 171.9 BPA

 

Allendale estimated 2014 US bean crop at 3.884 BB

 

Allendale estimated 2014 US bean yield at 46.4 BPA

 

Japan bought 40,210 tons of feed wheat and 34,340 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Dec-Jan shipment

 

Grain.gov.cn said China has sold 2.2 MMT of soybeans from reserves since weekly auctions started on May 13, 2014

 

Sinograin said drought in northeast China may have caused a loss of 8.0 MMT of corn

 

EIA reported June ethanol production at 28.759 million barrels , up 7.5% from a year ago. This equals 431 million bushels of corn.

 

EIA reported Jan-June corn use for ethanol was 2.513 BB up 9.6% from a year ago

 

Ciara-Cec said Argentine farmers sold $348 million of grains and oilseeds last week . Farmers have sold $17.6 billion of grains and oilseeds so far in 2014.

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 2.74 MMT of grain in August

 

200 new wheat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon. Total registered is now 344

  • 100 out of Sunrise Co-op Clyde OH
  • 100 out of Sunrise Co-op  Galion OH

 

150 new oat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon . Total registered is now 150.

 

50 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Bunge Emporia KS . Total registered is now 5,470

 

49 KC wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev I KS

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat = 13 with the date at 7/09/14
  • Bean oil = 335 with the date at 8/26/14
    • House Term issued 230
  • KC wheat = 155 with the date at 8/28/14
    • House Term stopped 144
  • Oats =150 with the date at 8/01/14
  • Wheat  = 231 with the date at 8/07/14
  • No corn
  • No beans
  • No soymeal

 

FC Stone 2014 US crop estimates from yesterday afternoon

  • 2014 US corn crop estimated at 14.595 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.455 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 14.032 BB
  • 2014 US corn yield estimated at 174.1 BPA vs. previous estimate of 172.4 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 167.4 BPA
  • 2014 US bean crop estimated at 4.0 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.865 BB and vs. USDA estimate of 3.816 BB
  • 2014 US bean yield estimated at 47.6 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.0 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 45.4 BPA

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Condition 74% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 56% good to excellent a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 54% good to excellent
  • Doughing 90% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average
  • Dented 53% vs. 35% a week ago and vs. 59% five year average
  • Mature 8% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 16% five year average

 

Corn harvest by state

  • Texas 55% vs. 46% a week ago vs. 58% a year ago and vs. 55% average
  • Louisiana 67% complete vs. 38% a week ago vs. 85% a year ago and vs. 89% average
  • Georgia 74% complete vs. 56% a week ago vs. 50% a year ago and vs. 65% average
  • South Carolina 63% vs. 34% a week ago vs. 35% a year ago and vs. 52% average
  • Mississippi  42% vs. 20% a week ago vs. 31% a year ago and vs. 61% average
  • Arkansas 19% vs. 7% a week ago vs. 22% a year ago and vs. 50% average
  • Alabama 21% vs. 8% a week ago vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 21% average
  • Kansas 7% vs. 0% a year ago and vs. 10% average
  • Tennessee 2% vs. 18% average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 72% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 54% a year ago and vs. 55% five year average
  • Setting pods 95% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Dropping leaves 5% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 7% five year average

 

Bean harvest by state

  • Texas 21% complete vs. 8% a week ago vs. 22% a year ago and vs. 29% average
  • Louisiana 23% vs. 6% a week ago vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 20% average
  • Mississippi 9% vs. 10% average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 63% good to excellent down 3% from a week ago (expecting down 1%) and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Harvested 38% (expecting about 40% complete) vs. 27% a week ago and vs. 65% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Headed 97% vs. 94% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average
  • Harvested 17% vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 26% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 50% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 45% good to excellent a year ago
  • Setting bolls 96% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average
  • Bolls opening 31% vs. 19% a week ago and vs. 27% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Sept corn 14,493 open, down 4,761
  • Total corn 1,218,836 open, down 2,166
  • Sept beans 917 open, down 196
  • Total beans 673,107 open, up 6,603
  • Sept meal 3,954 open, down 558
  • Total meal 338,880 open, up 10,841
  • Sept bean oil 2,171 open, down 790
  • Total bean oil 359,742 open, down 1,313
  • Sept wheat 4,379 open, down 847
  • Total wheat 381,132 open, up 872
  • Sept KC wheat 613 open, down 609
  • Total KC wheat 133,701 open, up 496

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Brazil to hold another corn auction tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • 2014 US corn crop at 13.988 BB
    • 2014 US corn yield at 168.0 BPA
    • 2014 US bean crop at 3.7 BB
    • 2014 US bean yield at 44.5 BPA
    • FSA acreage certification stats comes out on September 15th.
  • US August unemployment report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will come out on Friday at 730 am CST with crop stocks report as of July 31, 2014. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 10.7 MMT , range of estimates 9.2 – 12.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 10.9 MMT and a year ago all wheat stocks were 5.052 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 1.8 MMT, range of estimates 1.6-2.0 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.0 MMT and a year ago durum stocks were 1.152 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 3.0 MMT, range of estimates 2.4-3.8 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 3.0 MMT and a year ago canola stocks were .588 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 1.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.0-1.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 1.325 MMT and a year ago oat stocks were .506 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 2.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.7-2.5 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.25 MMT and barley stocks a year ago were .983 MMT
  • ABARES comes out on Monday with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Sept 1-10th palm oil exports on Wednesday Sept 10th
  • MPOB will release August palm oil data report on Sept 10th
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Thursday Sept 11th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Sept futures is Friday Sept 12th . Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE