News From The Grain Floor – 9/02/14

Good morning.

 

The purpose of art is washing the dust of daily life off our souls.

–          Pablo Picasso

 

Today is the beginning of a new month.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 4 ¾ at 1029
  • CZ up ¾ at 365 ½
  • WZ up a ½ at 564
  • KC WZ down ¾ at 642
  • MWZ down 1 ¾ at 628
  • SMZ up .80 at 351.50
  • BOZ up 16 at 3230
  • RRX up 3.50 at 1270

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3196

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,465
  • CZ 11,829
  • WZ 4,527
  • KC WZ 1,026
  • MWZ 243
  • SMZ 4,462
  • BOZ 9,990
  • RRX 33

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.24%

Hang Seng unchanged

Shanghai index up 1.4%,  highest close since June 2013

 

Tensions in Ukraine and Russia continue.

 

August official final mfg PMIs

  • China official at 51.1 (first drop in 6 months) slightly lower than expected vs. July final of 51.7
  • China HSBC at 50.2 vs. flash of 50.3
  • Italy at 49.8 expecting 50.8 and vs. July final of 51.9
  • France at 46.9 expecting 46.5 and vs. July final of 47.8
  • Germany at 51.4 expecting 52.0 and vs. July final of 52.4
  • Eurozone at 50.7 (13 month low) expecting 50.8 and vs. July final of 51.8

 

China grain closings today = beans up 36, corn up 10, meal up 16, palm oil up 20, and bean oil up 46

 

China grain closings yesterday = beans unchanged , corn down 7, meal down 14, palm oil down 46, and bean oil down 70.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 23.

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 140,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan-Feb shipment

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 30-55,000 tons of South American , Indian , China, or US origin soymeal for Feb shipment

 

Israel seeks 80,000 tons of optional origin corn  for Nov- Jan shipment

 

Israel seeks 25,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Nov – Dec shipment

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Aug 23-29 total crush volume at 1,513,050 tons up 3% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 23-29 total crush capacity utilization at 51.36% down 3.08% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-Aug 29, 2014) crush volume is up 17.03% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – Aug 29th ) crush volume at 46,676,038 tons up 14.86% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 29th total imported bean stocks at 6.4361 MMT vs. 6.3951 MMT a week ago and up .64% from a year ago
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 6.253 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.0 MMT
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s August palm oil exports at 1,282,597 tons down 5% from July

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Aug palm oil exports at 1,288,117 tons down 4.8% from July.

 

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 91.3 MMT (record)

 

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 85.1 MMT (record)

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Sept 1st Russia has harvested 75.3 MMT of grain on 26.6 MH (57.1% of total area) with an average yield of 2.83 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 62.3 MMT of grain on 26.2 MH with an average yield of 2.37 TPH

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 wheat exports at 23-24 MMT

 

SovEcon said Russia exported 4.5 MMT of grain in August (record) , including 4.2 MMT of wheat.

 

EU expecting a record corn crop of 70+ MMT

 

Midwest weather remains favorable. No early frost threat.

 

Better than expected early corn and bean yields being reported in the US

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 242 with the date at 7/02/14
  • Bean oil 259 with the date at 8/22/14
  • Wheat 49 with the date at 6/30/14
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 10
    • KC wheat 546 with the date at 8/28/14
      • House Term stopped 364
      • No corn
      • No beans
      • No meal

 

Receipt registrations as of Friday afternoon

  • Wheat unchanged at 144
  • Corn unchanged at 7
  • Beans unchanged at 0
  • Meal unchanged at 0
  • Bean oil 5,520 registered. 40 were canceled Friday afternoon
    • 20 out of Bunge Emporia KS
    • 20 out of Cargill Ackley IA
    • KC wheat unchanged at 849

 

Dec wheat 50 day moving average is 568 ¼

 

Dec meal 50 day moving average is 354.80

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Sept corn 19,308 open, down 7,817
  • Total corn 1,221,454 open, up 1,458
  • Sept bean 1,113 open, down 473
  • Total beans 666,593 open, up 8,614
  • Sept meal 4,517 open, down 1,883
  • Total meal 328,444 open, up 2,123
  • Sept bean oil 2,962 open, down 1,235
  • Total bean oil 361,099 open, down 1,525
  • Sept wheat 5,252 open, down 2,342
  • Total wheat 380,534 open, down 3,148
  • Sept KC wheat 1,418 open, down 1,520
  • Total KC wheat 133,930 open, up 333

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST
  • EIA June monthly data report should come out today. The report was delayed.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • EIA June monthly data report should come out on Tuesday . The report was delayed.
  • Brazil to hold another corn auction on Thursday
  • US August unemployment report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada will come out on Friday at 730 am CST with crop stocks report as of July 31, 2014. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 10.7 MMT , range of estimates 9.2 – 12.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 10.9 MMT and a year ago all wheat stocks were 5.052 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 1.8 MMT, range of estimates 1.6-2.0 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.0 MMT and a year ago durum stocks were 1.152 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 3.0 MMT, range of estimates 2.4-3.8 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 3.0 MMT and a year ago canola stocks were .588 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 1.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.0-1.4 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 1.325 MMT and a year ago oat stocks were .506 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 2.2 MMT, range of estimates are 1.7-2.5 MMT. Ag Canada’s latest estimate was 2.25 MMT and barley stocks a year ago were .983 MMT
  • ABARES comes out on Monday with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Thursday Sept 11th at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for Sept futures is Friday Sept 12th . Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE