News From The Grain Floor 8/28/14

Good morning.

 

You have to dream before your dreams can come true.

–          A. P. J. Abdul Kalam

 

Today is position day for September futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.

 

September open interest:

  • Corn 50,975 open, down 23,330
  • Beans 3,007 open, down 1,538
  • Meal 9,588 open, down 1,984
  • Bean oil 7,459 open, down 5,867
  • Wheat 16,473 open, down 4,878
  • KC Wheat 4,691 open, down 4,519

 

Delivery expectations and registered receipts

  • Wheat – 144 receipts registered, expecting 0-100 deliveries
  • Corn – 7 receipts registered , expecting 0 to very light deliveries
  • Beans – 0 receipts registered, expecting 0 deliveries
  • Meal – 0 receipts registered , expecting 0 deliveries
  • Bean oil – 5,708 receipts registered, expecting 200-2,000 deliveries
  • KC wheat – 49 receipts registered, expecting 0-50 deliveries
  • Minneapolis wheat expecting 100-500 deliveries

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 at 1026 ¾
  • CZ up ¾ at 365 ¾
  • WZ up 6 at 568 ¼
  • KC WZ up 6 at 644
  • MWZ up 6 at 632 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 345.80
  • BOZ up 3 at 3284
  • RRX down 1.50 at 1288

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 9,663
  • CZ 18,948
  • WZ 19,553
  • KC WZ 1,763
  • MWZ 625
  • SMZ 47,332
  • BOZ 7,235
  • RRX 47

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Stock market lower. Crude, gold, silver, and dollar higher.

 

Nikkei down .48%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai Index down .7%

 

Tensions continue in Ukraine and Russia .

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -1K to 298K expecting 300K

 

China grain closings – beans down 8, corn down 7, meal down 17, palm oil up 2, bean oil down 22

 

Malaysian palm oil up 6.

 

China sold 151,132 tons of US corn imported in 2011-2012 at auction today.

 

Iraq seeks 10,000 sunflower oil optional origin.

 

South Korea MFG bought 136,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan –Feb shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian corn for Oct shipment

 

Corn auction in Brazil today. Brazil will auction 1.75 MMT of corn.

 

68 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon. 54 out of Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN and 14 out of Solae Gibson City IL.

 

Extremely good yields being reported for US beans and corn.

 

Dec wheat 50 day moving average is 570 ½

 

Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day moving average is 647 ¼

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 403,600 tons (expecting 300,000-500,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 -32,700 tons ‘14/15 695,600 tons (expecting old crop -100,000 to + 100,000 tons and new crop 450-750,000 tons )
  • Beans – ‘13/14 – 62,800 tons ‘14/15 1.29 M tons (expecting old crop – 150,000 tons to 0 and new crop 750,000 – 1.1 M tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 1,100 ‘14/15 76,100 (expecting old crop 25,000-100,000 and new crop 100-200,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 -11,300 (expecting 10-40,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 403,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 94 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Brazil (94,000 MT), Nigeria (93,700 MT, including 31,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (89,800 MT), Colombia (41,900 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from Panama and decreases of 900 MT), the Philippines (23,200 MT), and Honduras (15,600 MT).  Decreases were reported for Panama (29,100 MT).  Exports of 466,700 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (115,200 MT), Mexico (70,000 MT), Taiwan (54,700 MT), Colombia (49,400 MT), Nigeria (40,400 MT), and Brazil (33,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 32,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Japan (88,400 MT, including 94,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,300 MT), Colombia (62,100 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Canada (18,200 MT), Mexico (14,900 MT), and Jamaica (8,600 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (172,900 MT), South Korea (48,800 MT), Taiwan (9,900 MT), Costa Rica (1,400 MT), El Salvador (1,300 MT), and the Dominican Republic (1,200 MT).  Net sales of 695,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Colombia (140,900 MT), South Korea (125,000 MT), Costa Rica (120,500 MT), and Peru (81,800 MT).  Exports of 1,002,700 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week, but up 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (278,900 MT), Mexico (262,200 MT), South Korea (224,500 MT), Colombia (65,100 MT), Peru (46,000 MT), the Philippines (43,400 MT), and Canada (28,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 62,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 30 percent from the previous week and down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Japan (9,700 MT, including 10,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), Mexico (7,400 MT), and Vietnam (600 MT), were more than offset by decreases for China (55,000 MT), Taiwan (15,400 MT), and unknown destinations (10,500 MT).  Net sales of 1,290,800 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (655,000 MT), Vietnam (112,200 MT), unknown destinations (96,000 MT), Mexico (79,400 MT), and Turkey (65,000 MT).  Exports of 202,100 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (81,500 MT), Indonesia (50,300 MT), Japan (37,500 MT), and Taiwan (17,900 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales 1,100 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for Canada (20,000 MT), Venezuela (4,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Nicaragua (3,600 MT), Honduras (1,500 MT), Belgium (1,100 MT) and Japan (900 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (21,300 MT), the Dominican Republic (7,300 MT), Trinidad (3,000 MT), and Guatemala (1,200 MT).  Net sales of 76,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (45,200 MT), Canada (10,700 MT), Mexico (6,800 MT), and Peru (6,000 MT).  Exports of 61,300 MT were up 22 percent from the previous week, but down 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Canada (24,600 MT), Mexico (13,600 MT), Venezuela (4,000 MT), Sri Lanka (3,800 MT)
  • Bean oil – Net sales reductions of 11,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Mexico (3,400 MT), Trinidad (200 MT), Saudi Arabia (100, MT), and South Korea (100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (15,000 MT) and the Dominican Republic (100 MT).  Exports of 22,000 MT were up 47 percent from the previous week and 73 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (8,300 MT), Mexico (7,500 MT), Guatemala (5,700 MT), and Trinidad (200 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,237,007 open, down 17,155
  • Total beans 654,028 open, up 5,427
  • Total meal 325,748 open, up 3,776
  • Total bean oil 360,287 open, up 1,688
  • Total wheat 394,695 open, down 1,578
  • Total KC wheat 133,055 open, down 3,572

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +80 BCF
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • First notice day for Sept futures is tomorrow
  • Weekly  COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • US markets closed Monday September 1st. See attachment for Labor Day trading hours schedule.
  • SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s August palm oil exports on Sept 2nd.
  • US August unemployment report comes out Friday Sept 5th at 730 am CST
  • ABARES comes out on Monday Sept 8th with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE