News From The Grain Floor 8/27/14

Good morning.

 

Nothing will work unless you do.

–          Maya Angelou

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ¾ at 1031 ¾
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 362 ¾
  • WZ up 1 at 557 ½
  • KC WZ up 2 ¾ at 634 ½
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 627
  • SMZ up 1.70 at 345.20
  • BOZ up 9 at 3322
  • RRX up 6.5 at 1282

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,632
  • CZ 13,992
  • WZ 4,720
  • KC WZ 1,301
  • MWZ 345
  • SMZ 4,241
  • BOZ 10,683
  • RRX 83

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 5-7 higher

 

Dollar lower. Stock market, crude oil, gold, and silver higher.

 

Nikkei up .09%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index up .1%

 

China grain closings = beans up 47, corn up 4, meal up 23, palm oil down 4, and bean oil up 80.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 34

 

There has been reports about China not being able to receive letters of credit open for 4-5 soybean cargoes. Also reports 1-2 Brazilian bean cargoes had been resold. – yesterday

 

Taiwan passes on tender for 99,410 tons of US wheat due to high prices for Oct – Nov shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG seeks 60,000 tons of Brazil or South Africa corn for Oct-Nov shipment

 

South Korea bought 28,288 tons of optional origin rice for Dec shipment

 

Ciara –CEC said Argentina farmers sold $253 million of grains and oilseeds last week (lowest since March 5-7) .

 

Ciara – CEC said Argentina farmers have sold $17.3 billion of grains and oilseeds so far in 2014 up 2.4% from a year ago

 

Russian Grain Union President estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 30.0 MMT (record)

 

Russian Grain Union President estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain production at 104.0 MMT

 

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister said Russia may cancel food import ban once there is no threat to national security. – Bloomberg

 

Japan to cut prices of imported wheat to local flour millers by .4% on average in October , first reduction since April 2012

 

Grain Conference in Vietnam

  • US Soybean Export Council said South American bean output may decline in 2015 due to price decline
  • US Soybean Export Council estimated US 2014 bean crop at 3.8-4.0 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.82 BB
  • Oil World Mielke said ‘14/15 palm and sunflower oil production may slow down .
  • Oil World Mielke said soymeal is overprices and prices could fall by 10% in the next 3-4 months
  • Oil World Mielke estimated ‘14/15 global soymeal production at 199.0 MMT vs. 187.0 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World Mielke estimated ‘14/15 US meal exports at a record 11.9 MMT vs. 10.6 MMT a year ago
  • Ag Resource estimated ‘14/15 corn average price at #3.40
  • Ag Resource estimated ‘14/15 corn ending stocks at 2.1 BB vs. ‘13/14 ending stocks of 1.2 BB
  • Ag Resource estimated ‘15/16 corn ending stocks at 3.0 BB
  • Ag Resource said corn prices could fall below $3 from ‘15/16 – ‘19/20

 

3 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD.

 

Logistics problems in Canada

 

Heavy rains in US spring wheat areas may have hurt quality

 

Southern bean harvest has started .

 

Better than expected yields being reported for southern corn harvest and early southern bean harvest

 

Midwest growing conditions nearly ideal

 

Weather Forecasters not seeing any risk of an early frost

 

Dec meal support $340.00

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Sept corn 75,306 open, down 21,811
  • Total corn 1,255,350 open, down 11,588
  • Sept beans 4,554 open, down 2,971
  • Total beans 647,082 open, up 74
  • Sept meal 11,632 open, down 3,329
  • Total meal 322,028 open, down 731
  • Sept bean oil 13,426 open, down 4,687
  • Total bean oil 358,650 open, up 257
  • Sept wheat 21,420 open, down 6,325
  • Total wheat 393,700 open, down 7,087
  • Sept KC wheat 9,122 open , down 3,293
  • Total KC wheat 136,701 open, down 372

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.3 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.1 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 400,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting +70-87 BCF
  • Tomorrow is position day for September futures . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery. As of Friday afternoon
    • There were 144 wheat receipts registered
    • There were 7 corn receipts registered
    • There were 0 bean receipts registered
    • There were 0 meal receipts registered
    • There were 5,776 bean oil receipts registered
    • There were 0 rice receipts registered
    • There were 49 KC wheat receipts registered
  • Early delivery estimates
    • 0 meal
    • 0 beans
    • 500-1,000 bean oil
  • First notice day for Sept is Friday
  • Corn auction in Brazil Saturday Aug 28th they will auction 1.75 MMT of corn.
  • US markets closed Monday September 1st. See attachment for Labor Day trading hours schedule.
  • SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s August palm oil exports on Sept 2nd.
  • US August unemployment report comes out Friday Sept 5th at 730 am CST
  • Dorab Mistry to speak at conference in Shanghai on Sept 15th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE