News From The Grain Floor 8/26/14

Good morning.

 

Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life.

–          Confucius

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for Sept shipment. Should have results by tomorrow morning.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 ¼ at 1025
  • CZ down a ½ at 367
  • WZ down a ¼ at 554 ¼
  • KC WZ down a ¼ at 633
  • MWZ down a ¼ at 628
  • SMZ down .90 at 342.80
  • BOZ down 19 at 3277
  • RRX down 4.50 at 1281

 

New contract lows in Nov beans overnight of 1024.

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,653
  • CZ 15,542
  • WZ 7,474
  • KC WZ 1,086
  • MWZ 451
  • SMZ 4,567
  • BOZ 6,042
  • RRX 48

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil  15-25 lower
  • Rice 4-6 lower

 

Dollar lower. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher .

 

Nikkei down .59%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index down .8%

 

China grain closings – beans up 52, corn down 1, meal down 26, palm oil up 44, and bean oil up 56.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 15.

 

Hearing China has bought 5-8 cargoes of US beans since Friday

 

China buying beans off the PNW yesterday

 

Chinese crush analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Aug 16-22 total crush volume at 1,422,450 tons down 4.42% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 16-22 total crush capacity utilization at 48.28% down 3.18% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1,2013- Aug 22,2014) total crush volume at 63,711,988 tons up 17.44% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1- Aug 22, 2014) total crush volume at 45,163,191 tons up 15.34% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 22nd total imported bean stocks at 6.5151 MMT vs. 6.571 MMT a week ago and up 3.11% from a year ago
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 6.253 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of Aug 25th Russia has harvested 71.5 MMT of grain on 24.4 MH with an average yield of 2.93 TPH . A year ago Russia harvested 58.5 MMT on 23.9 MH with an average yield of 2.45 TPH

 

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 grain exports at 27.5-30.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25-27 MMT

 

Cash market for nearby beans and meal were still extremely firm yesterday in interior markets . Analysts are saying this is not the reason for the collapse in beans and soymeal. Except CIF bean premiums for Aug shipment broke by 45 cents

 

Limited southern bean harvest has started . Excellent bean yields being reported out of on county in Mississippi of 85-100 BPA .

 

Strategie Grain said EU wheat crop will be 59% milling quality vs. 71% a year ago

 

50 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Solae Gibson City IL

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Condition 73% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to up 1%) vs. 59% a year ago
  • Doughing 83% vs. 70% a week ago and vs. 78% five year average
  • Dented 35% vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 43% five year average

 

Corn harvest by state

  • TX 46% vs. 51% a year ago and vs. 52% average
  • GA 56% vs. 30% a year ago and vs. 48% average
  • LA 38% vs. 60% a year ago and vs. 74% average
  • MS 20% vs. 13% a year ago and vs. 38% average
  • SC 34% vs. 23% a  year ago and vs. 37% average
  • AR 7% vs. 12% a year ago and vs. 34% average
  • AL 8% vs. 2% a year ago and vs. 14% average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 70% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) vs. 58% a year ago
  • Setting pods 90% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 66% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1%) and vs. 67% a year ago
  • Harvested 27% complete vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 49% five year average

 

 

Rice

  • Condition 74% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Headed 94% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 89% five year average
  • Harvested 11% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 17% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 51% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 47% good to excellent a year ago
  • Setting bolls 90% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average
  • Bolls opening 19% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 18% five year average

 

Crush information from yesterday (didn’t have this info in my afternoon recap)

Crush quotes

OPEN                CLOSE

SEP       1.395-1.43       1.22-1.28

OCT      1.27-1.29          1.08-1.09

DEC       03.5-94             88.5-90.5

JAN       81-83                 80-82

MCH     73-74.5             71.5-74.5

MAY     71-72.5             70-71

JLY         71-72                70-71.5

AUG      68-77                71-75

SEP5      80-86                 80-86

 

No crush or oil share pit players yesterday

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Sept corn 97,885 open, down 15,349
  • Total corn 1,267,966 open, down 6,460
  • Sept beans 7,576 open, down 3,161
  • Total beans 647,036 open, up 2,377
  • Sept meal 15,648 open, down 5,399
  • Total meal 323,531 open, down 4,439
  • Sept bean oil 18,041 open, down 4,296
  • Total bean oil 358,317 open, down 2,066
  • Sept wheat 28,889 open, down 4,268
  • Total wheat 401,938 open, up 256
  • Sept KC wheat 12,415 open, down 2,302
  • Total KC wheat 137,075 open, down 1,633

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • CEC to estimate South Africa’s 2014 crops tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Thursday is position day for September futures . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery. As of Friday afternoon
    • There were 144 wheat receipts registered
    • There were 7 corn receipts registered
    • There were 0 bean receipts registered
    • There were 0 meal receipts registered
    • There were 5,779 bean oil receipts registered
    • There were 0 rice receipts registered
    • There were 49 KC wheat receipts registered
  • First notice day for Sept is Friday Aug 27th
  • Corn auction in Brazil Aug 28th they will auction 1.75 MMT of corn.
  • US markets closed Monday September 1st. See attachment for Labor Day trading hours schedule.
  • SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s August palm oil exports on Sept 2nd.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE