News From The Grain Floor 8/25/14

Good morning

 

Individual commitment to a group effort – that is what makes a team work, a company work, a society work, a civilization work.

–          Vince Lombardi

 

USDA announced 113,673 tons of corn sold to Costa Rica for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US corn sold to Colombia for ‘14/15 shipment  

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 7 ½ at 1034 ½
  • CZ down 3 ¼ at 368 ¼
  • WZ down a ¼ at 562
  • KC WZ down ¾ at 643 ¼
  • MWZ down 1 ½ at 633
  • SMZ down 4.20 at 348.50
  • BOZ up 38 at 3298
  • RRX down .50 at 1272

 

Nov beans made a new contract low overnight of 1032 ½

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3245

 

CME overnight market opening was delayed about 2 hours last night due to technical issues.

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,061
  • CZ 11,762
  • WZ 7,180
  • KC WZ 637
  • MWZ 214
  • SMZ 6,103
  • BOZ 11,878
  • RRX 60

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold , and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .48%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai Index down .5%

 

Chinese grain closings – beans down 12, corn down 3, meal down 3, palm oil down 106, and bean oil down 78

 

Malaysian palm oil up 31

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-25th palm oil exports at 956,092 tons down 11.3% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-25th palm oil exports at 986,931 tons down 15.3% from a month ago

 

Oil World said palm oil exports are likely to recover in the next month.

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board or Gapki said Indonesia exported 1.84 MMT of palm oil in July (7 month high) vs. 1.79 MMT in June

 

Malaysia bought 5,000 Black Sea origin feed wheat for Sept shipment

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 5.857 MMT of grain between July 1-Aug 20th  up 22.7% from a year ago

98 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

Excessive rains in Montana and parts of the Dakotas may complicate spring wheat quality

 

Excessive rains in Indiana good for corn and bean crops

 

Midwest weather still favorable

 

ProFarmer came out after the close on Friday with 2014 US crop estimates from the tour.

  • US corn yield estimated at 169.3 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 167.4. Market was expecting 170+ BPA
    • Iowa estimated at 183.0 BPA vs. USDA of 185.0 BPA
    • Illinois estimated at 198.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 188.0 BPA
  • US corn crop estimated at 14.093 BB vs. USDA estimate of 14.032 BPA
  • US corn harvested acres estimated at 83.239 MA down 600,000 acres from USDA estimate
  • US bean yield estimated at 45.35 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.4 BPA
  • US bean crop estimated at 3.812 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.816 BB
  • US soybean harvested acres estimated at 84.058 MA unchanged from USDA estimate

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Sept corn 151,979 open, down 19,462
  • Total corn 1,312,679 open, down 0,609
  • Sept beans 15,534 open, down 3,634
  • Total beans 652,674 open, up 1,976
  • Sept meal 24,343 open, down 240
  • Total meal 331,480 open, up 8,705
  • Sept bean oil 22,869 open, down 1,934
  • Total bean oil 361,639 open, up 6,864
  • Sept wheat 42,430 open, down 9,073
  • Total wheat 411,432 open, up 971
  • Sept KC wheat 15,349 open, down 3,711
  • Total KC wheat 139,755 open, up 121

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections come out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Expecting good to excellent conditions to be steady to up slightly from a week ago
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • CEC to estimate South Africa’s 2014 crops on Wednesday
  • Thursday is position day for September futures . Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery. As of Friday afternoon
    • There were 144 wheat receipts registered
    • There were 7 corn receipts registered
    • There were 0 bean receipts registered
    • There were 0 meal receipts registered
    • There were 5,829 bean oil receipts registered
    • There were 0 rice receipts registered
    • There were 49 KC wheat receipts registered
  • First notice day for Sept is Friday Aug 27th
  • US markets closed Monday September 1st. See attachment for Labor Day trading hours schedule.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE