News From The Grain Floor-8/21/14

Good morning.

 

I used to keep my head down as I rounded the bases after a home run. I didn’t want to show up the pitcher. I figured he felt bad enough already

–          Mickey Mantle

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 ¼ at 1039 ¼
  • CZ up ¾ at 368 ¼
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 551 ½
  • KC WZ down a ¼ at 630 ½
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 620
  • SMZ up .40 at 344.60
  • BOZ up 5 at 3327
  • RRX down .50 at 1292.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,511
  • CZ 11,919
  • WZ 5,302
  • KC WZ 1,274
  • MWZ 279
  • SMZ 6,462
  • BOZ 9,912
  • RRX 32

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal steady to .50 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .84%

Hang Seng down .67%

Shanghai Index down .44%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -14K to 298K expecting 302K.

 

Chinese grain closings = beans down 33, corn down 2, meal down 21, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 40

 

Malaysian palm oil up 1

 

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo off the PNW for Dec shipment yesterday.

 

Japan bought 146,858 tons of food wheat for Sept-Nov shipment . Breakdown

  • 37,885 tons of western white US wheat
  • 20,480 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 31,421 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 26,657 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 30,415 tons of Australian white wheat

 

ProFarmer 3rd day results

  • Illinois corn yield estimated at a record 196.96 BPA vs. 170.48 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 149.36 BPA
  • Illinois average bean pod count at 1,299.17 pods vs. 1,115.97 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,085.35 pods
  • Western Iowa average corn yield at 177.48 -180.90 BPA vs. 160.12 – 175.65 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 146.77-170.72 BPA
  • Western Iowa pod count 1,091-1,224 pods vs. 802.98-1,101.49 pods a year ago and 3 year average of 962-1,091

 

Today is the last day of the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour. Scouts will be surveying crops in Minnesota and the rest of Iowa today. Final results/estimates from the tour will come out on Friday at 130 pm CST.

 

Tightness old crop beans – cash markets firm

 

Talk/Reports continue US crushing plants may shut down temporarily.

 

Brazilian corn is at a $3 discount to US corn

 

152 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. 6,079 receipts remain registered.

  • 100 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD
  • 10 out of Solae Gibson City IL
  • 25 out of Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN
  • 7 out of Ag Processing Omaha NE
  • 10 out of Ag Processing Dawson MN

 

Good weather continues.

 

China’s July oilseed and grain imports- General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat = 116,718 tons down 62.2% from a year ago

o   42,040 tons from the US down 81.13% from a year ago

  • Barley = 763,535 tons up 365.87% from a year ago
  • Corn = 86,369 tons up 18.78% from a year ago

o   6,271 tons from the US up 591% from a year ago

  • Rice = 182,558 tons up 29.17% from a year ago
  • Soybeans = 7,474,702 tons up 3.87 % from a year ago

o   5,215,714 tons from Brazil down 4.05% from a year ago

o   1,582,571 tons from Argentina up 25.71% from a year ago

o   438,180 tons from Uruguay down 12.27% from a year ago

o   237,289 tons from the US up 33906% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed = 426,184 tons up 76.62% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil = 73,933 tons down 59.66% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 30,860 tons up 1012% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 174,005 tons up 9,.73% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 200 tons down 75.46% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 468,844 tons down 3.94% from a year ago

 

China’s Jan-July 2014 oilseed and grain imports – General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat = 2,671,456 tons up 56.61% from a year ago

o   782,527 from the US up 38.07% from a year ago

  • Barley = 3,193,651 tons up 167.08% from a year ago
  • Corn = 1,463,436 tons down 8.23% from a year ago

o   945,370 tons from the US down 37.31% from a year ago

  • Rice = 1,501,724 tons up 2.99% from a year ago
  • Soybeans = 41,682,136 tons up 20.17% from a year ago

o   20,948,981 tons from Brazil up 11.51% from a year ago

o   2,305,258 tons from Argentina up 5.96% from a year ago

o   575,229 tons from Uruguay down 20.28% from a year ago

o   17,330,248 tons from the US up 38.39% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed = 3,123,848 tons up 55.11% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil = 596,235 tons down 44.07% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 189,538 tons up 1351% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 640,160 tons up 9.73% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 15,093 tons up 24.91% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 3,334,218 tons down .07% from a year ago

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat =  ‘14/15 209,200 tons  (expecting 350 – 550,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘13/14 99,900 tons ‘14/15 719,300 tons (expecting old crop 0-150,000 tons, new crop 650 -850,000 tons)
  • Beans = ‘13/14 -89,600 tons ‘14/15 1.42 M tons (expecting old crop 0-100,000 tons, new crop 850,000 -1.05 M tons)
  • Meal = ‘13/14 99,800 ‘14/15 78,600 (expecting old crop 50-125,000 tons , new crop 150-250,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘13/14 15,700 ‘14/15 5,000  (expecting 0-20,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 209,200 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 38 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (83,500 MT, including 49,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Nigeria (62,400 MT), Japan (34,600 MT), Ecuador (32,100 MT, including 22,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (26,700 MT), and Honduras (19,300 MT). Decreases were reported for Brazil (58,800 MT), unknown destinations (42,300 MT), and Peru (2,600 MT). Exports of 532,000 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (111,900 MT), Peru (88,100 MT), Nigeria (74,200 MT), Japan (63,800 MT), Mexico (46,000 MT), and Ecuador (34,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 99,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Egypt (112,900 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from China and 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (93,500 MT, including 63,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 20,000 MT switched from Japan), Colombia (79,500 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (55,200 MT), Japan (47,600 MT, including 78,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 11,100 MT), and Canada (24,900 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (250,500 MT), China (64,400 MT), El Salvador (9,500 MT), and Morocco (2,700 MT). Net sales of 719,300 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Colombia (223,300 MT), Mexico (193,600 MT), unknown destinations (161,900 MT), and Peru (98,500 MT). Exports of 1,144,300 MT were up 59 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (315,600 MT), Mexico (253,900 MT), Japan (206,200 MT), Egypt (172,900 MT), Colombia (71,500 MT), Costa Rica (37,000 MT), and Morocco (27,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 89,600 MT for 2013/2014 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (12,800 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (10,000 MT), Taiwan (7,000 MT), and Thailand (3,900 MT), were more than offset by decreases for China (119,000 MT) and unknown destinations (8,700 MT). Net sales of 1,420,600 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (947,900 MT), Spain (120,000 MT), unknown destinations (111,100 MT), and Vietnam (60,000 MT). Exports of 93,400 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (42,400 MT), Indonesia (26,300 MT), Japan (13,300 MT), and Barbados (4,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales 99,800 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (26,800 MT), Mexico (26,100 MT), Canada (23,200 MT), the Philippines (6,300 MT), Japan (4,700 MT, including 3,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and El Salvador (4,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (100 MT) and Nicaragua (100 MT). Net sales of 78,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Colombia (30,500 MT), El Salvador (17,700 MT), and Morocco (15,000 MT). Exports of 50,300 MT were down 63 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (19,600 MT), Mexico (14,600 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), El Salvador (3,800 MT), and Venezuela (2,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 15,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (10,100 MT), Nicaragua (3,300 MT), and unknown destinations (2,000 MT). Net sales of 5,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for the Dominican Republic. Exports of 15,000 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (6,400 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,000 MT), and Nicaragua (1,300 MT).

 

Stats Canada came out this morning at 730 am with their Canada 2014 crop estimates. Based on a Reuters report expecting

  • All wheat at 27.70  MMT  vs. average estimate 28.5 MMT , range of estimates 26.2-34.5 MMT . Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT. 2013 all wheat crop was 37.5296
  • Durum at 4.95   MMT  vs. average estimate 5.2 MMT, range of estimates 4.9-5.5 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 5.04 MMT. 2013 durum wheat crop was 6.5045 MMT
  • Canola at 13.91   MMT vs. average estimate 14.5 MMT, range of estimates are 13.8 -15.1 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 14.45 MMT. 2013 canola crop was 17.9601 MMT
  • Oats at 2.64    MMT vs. average estimate 3.0 MMT , range of estimates are 2.6-4.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 3.04 MMT. 2013 oat crop was 3.888 MMT
  • Barley at 7.16   MMT vs. average estimate 7.5 MMT , range of estimates are 7.0-8.4 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 7.34 MMT. 2013 barley crop was 10.2371 MMT
  • Flax at 908,100 tons  vs. average estimate .795 MMT, range of estimates are .750-.827 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was .825 MMT. 2013 flax crop was .7123 MMT
  • Corn at 11.43  MMT vs. average estimate 11.5 MMT, range of estimates are 10.7-12.0 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT. 2013 corn crop was 14.1938 MMT
  • Beans at 5.9 MMT vs. average estimate 6.1 MMT, range of estimates are 5.8-6.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 6.10 MMT. 2013 soybean crop was 5.1984 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,315,741 open, down 5,272
  • Total beans 646,052 open, up 853
  • Total meal 322,556 open, down 1,089
  • Total bean oil 356,492 open, down 2,945
  • Total wheat 418,113 open, down 2,078
  • Total KC wheat 140,283 open, up 715

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +84 BCF
  • Sept options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST.
  • Final estimates from the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour comes out tomorrow at 130 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE