News From The Grain Floor 8/20/14

Good morning.

 

“A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul.”

– George Bernard Shaw

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US beans sold to Vietnam for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 ¾ at 1049
  • CZ down 3 at 369 ¼
  • WZ up 2 ½ at 561
  • KC WZ up 2 ¾ at 640 ¼
  • MWZ up 2 ¼ at 627 ½
  • SMZ down .70 at 352.00
  • BOZ down 18 at 3283
  • RRX unchanged at 1296

 

Dec bean oil made new contract low overnight of 3281

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,703
  • CZ 10,575
  • WZ 3,671
  • KC WZ 419
  • MWZ 301
  • SMZ 7,917
  • BOZ 8,680
  • RRX 96

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Stock market lower. Dollar, crude, gold, and silver higher.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 1.4 MB expecting a draw of 1.2 MB
  • Gas a draw of 2.1 MB expecting a draw of 1.6 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 568,000 expecting a draw of 550,000

 

Nikkei up .03%

Hang Seng up .15%

Shanghai Index down .23%

 

China grain closings = beans down 3, corn up 2, meal unchanged, bean oil down 38 and palm oil down 54

 

Malaysian palm oil down 19 – 5 year lows

 

SGS estimated Malaysia Aug 1-20th palm oil exports at 792,817 tons down 8.3% from a month ago. Analysts expected exports to be lower than a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia Aug 1-20th palm oil exports at 822,026 tons down 5.4% from a month ago. Analysts expected exports to be lower than a month ago

 

Hearing China bought 3 US bean cargoes off the Gulf yesterday . One cargo for Oct-Nov shipment, one cargo for Nov –Dec shipment and one cargo for Dec shipment

 

Taiwan seeks 99,410 of US milling wheat for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Brazil to auction corn today.

 

Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yield at 169.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yield at 45.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

 

ProFarmer 2nd day results

  • Indiana corn yield estimated at a record 185.03 BPA vs. 167.36 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 141.24
  • Indiana average bean count estimated at 1,220.79 pods vs. 1,185.14 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,118.65 pods
  • Nebraska corn yield estimated at 163.77 BPA vs. 154.93 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 146.81 BPA
  • Nebraska average bean count estimated at 1,103.26 pods vs. 1,138.94 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,106.62 BPA

 

Today is the third day of the ProFarmer US Midwest crop tour. Today they will tour fields in Illinois and Western Iowa

 

Talk/Reports continue Iowa crush plants may shut down temporarily.

 

10 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of CGB Utica IL. There are 0 receipts registered

 

2 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of ADM Des Moines IA. There are 0 receipts registered

 

110 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon = 10 out of Zeeland Farms Portage IN and 100 out of Bunge Decatur IN . There are 6,231 receipts registered

 

Weather remains favorable in the US Midwest.

 

Open interest as of yesterday afternoon

  • Total corn 1,320,883 open, up 4,491
  • Total beans 645,228 open, up 2,419
  • Total meal 324,043 open, down 1,277
  • Total bean oil 359,437 open, up 107
  • Total wheat 420,332 open, down 4,330
  • Total KC wheat 139,568 open, up 92

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.7 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.55 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 300,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am with their Canada 2014 crop estimates. Based on a Reuters report expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 28.5 MMT , range of estimates 26.2-34.5 MMT . Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT. 2013 all wheat crop was 37.5296
    • Durum average estimate 5.2 MMT, range of estimates 4.9-5.5 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 5.04 MMT. 2013 durum wheat crop was 6.5045 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT, range of estimates are 13.8 -15.1 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 14.45 MMT. 2013 canola crop was 17.9601 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.0 MMT , range of estimates are 2.6-4.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 3.04 MMT. 2013 oat crop was 3.888 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 7.5 MMT , range of estimates are 7.0-8.4 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 7.34 MMT. 2013 barley crop was 10.2371 MMT
    • Flax average estimate .795 MMT, range of estimates are .750-.827 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was .825 MMT. 2013 flax crop was .7123 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 11.5 MMT, range of estimates are 10.7-12.0 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT. 2013 corn crop was 14.1938 MMT
    • Beans average estimate 6.1 MMT, range of estimates are 5.8-6.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 6.10 MMT. 2013 soybean crop was 5.1984 MMT
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Flash Aug mfg PMIs come out on Thursday and Friday.
  • Sept options expire on Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Final estimates from the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour comes out on Friday, probably after the close

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE