News From The Grain Floor 8/19/14

Good morning.
Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.

–          Thomas A. Edison

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 5 ¾ at 1052
  • CZ down 2 ¾ at 368 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ¾ at 550 ½
  • KC WZ down 3 ¼ at 628 ¼
  • MWZ down 2 ½ at 615 ¼
  • SMZ down 2.50 at 352.60
  • BOZ down 17 at 3316
  • RRX up 2.50 at 1287.50

 

Minneapolis Dec wheat made a new contract low overnight of 613

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3308

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,515
  • CZ 15,994
  • WZ 4,888
  • KC WZ 382
  • MWZ 194
  • SMZ 5,288
  • BOZ 6,647
  • RRX 142

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Silver lower. Gold, crude, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .82%

Hang Seng up .66%

Shanghai Index up .26%

 

Ukraine/Russia tensions are easing.

 

China grain closings – beans down 28, corn down 24, meal up 22, palm oil down 10, and bean oil up 16.

 

China auctioned 338,700 tons of beans from reserves today , I have not seen results from the auction yet.

 

Reports Iowa crushing plants may shut down.

 

Today is the second day of the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour. Tour ends on Thursday. Tour in west-central IN, Nebraska

 

First day results from ProFarmer tour

  • Ohio corn yield estimated at 182.11 BPA vs. 171.64 BPA a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 146.13 BPA
  • Ohio average bean pod count at 1,342.42 pods vs. 1,283.61 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,190.18 pods
  • South Dakota corn yield estimated at 152.71 BPA vs. 161.75 BPA a year ago and vs. three year average of 125.70 BPA
  • South Dakota average bean pod count at 1,057.80 pods vs. 1,016.68 pods a year ago and vs. three year average of 902.76 pods

 

Cash market was strong yesterday . There were reports that Claypool IN paid at least +300X for soybeans and meal was offered at +87U.

 

Lack of farmer selling

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week Aug 9-15th total crush volume at 1,488,250 tons down 8.59% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 9-15th total crush capacity utilization at 51.43% down 4.84% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 –Aug 15, 2014) crush volume at 62,289,538 tons up 17.90% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1- Aug 15, 2014) crush volume at 43,740,741 tons up 15.90% from a year ago
  • For the week ending Aug 15th total imported bean stocks at 6.5721 MMT vs. 6.5945 MMT a week ago and up 3.89% from a year ago
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 6.253 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate.
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 6.0 MMT , first estimate made.

 

Reports US corn is uncompetitive in the world market , Ukraine corn is $10 – $15 cheaper than US corn

 

Average yields and quality being reported out of Manitoba during harvest

 

Reports of good/excellent grain yields in Black Sea region.

 

Midwest weather remains favorable

 

Rains in forecast for dry areas in China , bringing relief to crops

 

Receipt registrations were unchanged yesterday

  • Bean oil – 6,341 receipts remain registered
  • Soybeans – 10 receipts remain registered
  • Soymeal – 2 receipts remain registered

 

Coast Guard says 8,000 gallon diesel spilled to Ohio river from Duke Energy station – RTRS

  • COAST GUARD SAYS RESPONDS TO OHIO RIVER DIESEL FUEL SPILL, PORTION OF RIVER CLOSED TO VESSEL TRAFFIC
  • COAST GUARD SAYS RESPONDING TO A REPORTED 8,000 GALLON DIESEL SPILL FROM THE DUKE ENERGY W.C. BECKJORD POWER STATION NEAR CINCINNATI, OHIO
  • COAST GUARD SAYS WATCHSTANDERS RECEIVED THE INITIAL REPORT AT ABOUT 12:20 A.M., EASTERN STANDARD TIME, TUESDAY
  • COAST GUARD SAYS DUKE ENERGY DUK.N HAS ASSUMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR SPILL CLEAN-UP

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Condition 72% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1%) vs. 61% a year ago and vs. average of 56% good to excellent
  • Doughing 70% vs. 54% a week ago and vs. 63% five year average
  • Dented 22% vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 27% five year average
  • Harvest by state
    • TX 32% vs. 17% a week ago vs. 46% a year ago and vs. 47% average
    • GA 31% vs. 7% a week ago vs. 22% a year ago and vs. 32% average
    • LA 12% vs. 6% a week ago vs. 35% a year ago and vs. 58% average
    • MS 9% vs. 2% a week ago vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 23% average
    • SC 19% complete
    • AL 6% vs. 2% a week ago vs. 0% a year ago and vs. 7% average
    • AR 1% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 20% average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 71% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1%) vs. 62% a year ago and vs. 57% good to excellent average.
  • Blooming 95% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Setting pods 83% vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 79% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 68% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting unchanged to down 1%) and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Harvested 17% complete (expecting 16% complete) vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 33% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvest is virtually complete (expecting 98% complete) and vs. 95% a week ago

 

Rice

  • Condition 74% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Headed 88% vs. 71% a week ago and vs. 81% five year average
  • Harvested 7% vs. 10% a year ago and vs. 11% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 50% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 46% good to excellent a year ago
  • Setting bolls 88% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 88% five year average
  • Bolls opening 12% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 12% five year average

 

Open Interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,316,465 open, down 11,922
  • Total beans 642,820 open, down 5,672
  • Total meal 325,320 open, down 2,573
  • Total bean oil 359,355 open, up 2,092
  • Total wheat 424,847 open, down 2,906
  • Total KC wheat 139,479 open, down 339

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow  with their Malaysian Aug 1-20th palm oil export estimates . Expecting down from a month ago.
  • Brazilian corn auction to take place tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.70 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 300,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am with their Canada 2014 crop estimates. Based on a Reuters report expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 28.5 MMT , range of estimates 26.2-34.5 MMT . Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT. 2013 all wheat crop was 37.5296
    • Durum average estimate 5.2 MMT, range of estimates 4.9-5.5 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 5.04 MMT. 2013 durum wheat crop was 6.5045 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT, range of estimates are 13.8 -15.1 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 14.45 MMT. 2013 canola crop was 17.9601 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.0 MMT , range of estimates are 2.6-4.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 3.04 MMT. 2013 oat crop was 3.888 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 7.5 MMT , range of estimates are 7.0-8.4 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 7.34 MMT. 2013 barley crop was 10.2371 MMT
    • Flax average estimate .795 MMT, range of estimates are .750-.827 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was .825 MMT. 2013 flax crop was .7123 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 11.5 MMT, range of estimates are 10.7-12.0 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT. 2013 corn crop was 14.1938 MMT
    • Beans average estimate 6.1 MMT, range of estimates are 5.8-6.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 6.10 MMT. 2013 soybean crop was 5.1984 MMT
  • Flash Aug mfg PMIs come out on Thursday and Friday.
  • Sept options expire on Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Final estimates from the ProFarmer Midwest crop tour comes out on Friday, probably after the close

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE