News From The Grain Floor 8/18/14

Good morning.

 

“If I’d just tried for them dinky singles I could’ve batted around .600.”

–          Babe Ruth

 

Dec Chicago, KC, and Minneapolis wheat is top step (spot month) this morning. November rice is also top step this morning.

 

Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour starts today and ends Thursday. We will see corn and bean estimates each day from the tour and we will get final estimates from the tour on Thursday afternoon. Analysts expecting good corn yields and good bean pod counts. Tour is in Ohio and South Dakota today.

 

No USDA announcement this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down a ¼ at 1051 ¾
  • CZ up 2 ¾ at 379 ¾
  • WZ down 6 ½ at 557
  • KC WZ down 5 ¼ at 629
  • MWZ down 5 ¼ at 618
  • SMZ down .70 at 352.80
  • BOZ up 8 at 3329
  • RRX down 3 at 1271.50

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3311

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,526
  • CZ 17,396
  • WZ 6,391
  • KC WZ 585
  • MWZ 249
  • SMZ 5,290
  • BOZ 7,847
  • RRX 153

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady lower
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 4-6 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, and silver higher. Crude and gold lower.

 

Nikkei up .03%

Hang Seng unchanged

Shanghai Index up .57%

 

Argentina is on holiday today.

 

China grain closings – beans down 4, corn down 3, meal up 9, palm oil down 90, bean oil down 86

 

Malaysian palm oil down 3.

 

Lack of fresh news this morning

 

Egypt FIHC bought 32,500 tons of sunflower oil and 15,000 tons of bean oil for Sept-Oct shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of hard wheat optional origin for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of feed barley optional origin for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Ukraine statistics service said Ukraine’s Aug 1st grain stocks were 20.9 MMT down .1% from a year ago

 

391 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon. 6,341 bean oil receipts remain registered

  • 1 out of Bunge Decatur IN
  • 294 out of Cargill Ackley IA
  • 96 out of Ag Processing Omaha NE

 

Rains in Australia boost yield prospects

 

Favorable Central US weather.

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,329,068 open, down 6,245
  • Total soybeans 648,751 open, up 1,044
  • Total meal 327,963 open, up 2,816
  • Total bean oil 357,141 open, up 4,653
  • Total wheat 428,798 open, up 2,387
  • Total KC wheat 139,777 open, down 1,059

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
  • Corn good to excellent conditions unchanged from a week ago of 73% good to excellent
  • Bean good to excellent conditions unchanged to 1% higher than a week ago , a week ago beans were rated 70% good to excellent
  • Spring wheat good to excellent conditions unchanged from a week ago of 70% good to excellent.
  • China to auction 338,700 tons of beans from reserves tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Wednesday with their Malaysian Aug 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am with their Canada 2014 crop estimates. Based on a Reuters report expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 28.5 MMT , range of estimates 26.2-34.5 MMT . Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT. 2013 all wheat crop was 37.5296
    • Durum average estimate 5.2 MMT, range of estimates 4.9-5.5 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 5.04 MMT. 2013 durum wheat crop was 6.5045 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 14.5 MMT, range of estimates are 13.8 -15.1 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 14.45 MMT. 2013 canola crop was 17.9601 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.0 MMT , range of estimates are 2.6-4.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 3.04 MMT. 2013 oat crop was 3.888 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 7.5 MMT , range of estimates are 7.0-8.4 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 7.34 MMT. 2013 barley crop was 10.2371 MMT
    • Flax average estimate .795 MMT, range of estimates are .750-.827 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was .825 MMT. 2013 flax crop was .7123 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 11.5 MMT, range of estimates are 10.7-12.0 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT. 2013 corn crop was 14.1938 MMT
    • Beans average estimate 6.1 MMT, range of estimates are 5.8-6.3 MMT. Ag Canada July estimate was 6.10 MMT. 2013 soybean crop was 5.1984 MMT
    • On Thursday Eurozone flash mfg PMI comes out
    • Final estimates from the ProFarmer crop tour comes out on Thursday afternoon
    • On Friday China’s HSBC flash mfg PMI comes out
  • Brazilian corn auction to take place on Wednesday
  • Sept options expire on Friday. Options expire at 115 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE