News From The Grain Floor 8/15/14

Good morning.

And that’s the way it is

–          Walter Cronkite

 

USDA reported 110,000 tons of beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment.

 

NOPA July crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting.

  • Crush average estimate 115.823 MB , range of estimates are 113.0 MB – 117.35 MB. June crush was 118.718 MB . July 2013 crush was 116.338 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.694 billion lbs. (this will be the smallest bean oil stocks since 2004) range of estimates are 1.476-1.80 B. June bean oil stocks were 1.847 B lbs. July 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.050 B lbs.
  • No meal export estimates are given. June meal exports were 388,112 tons and July 2013 meal exports were 351,356 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 8 ½ at 1064 ½
  • CZ up 4 ½ at 378
  • WU up 5 ½ at 542 ¾
  • KC WU up 4 ¾ at 612 ¾
  • MWU up 3 ¼ at 609
  • SMZ up 5.40 at 356.50
  • BOZ down 15 at 3371
  • RRU up .50 at 1286

 

Dec bean oil low overnight was 3362, which is the contract low made yesterday.

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 26,093
  • CZ 22,283
  • WU 5,140
  • KC WU 319
  • MWU 181
  • SMZ 13,927
  • BOZ 13,469
  • RRU 84

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-10 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude and stock market higher. Gold, silver, and dollar lower

 

Nikkei up .02%

Hang Seng up .61%

Shanghai Index up .90%

 

China grain closings = beans down 1, corn up 11, meal up 22, palm oil down 68, and bean oil down 76

 

Malaysian palm oil up 4. Biggest weekly drop in 17 months

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-15th palm oil exports at 570,761 tons down 15.2% from a month ago

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Aug 1-15th palm oil exports at 549,784 tons down 15.9% from a month ago

 

Malaysia cuts September crude palm oil export tax to 4.5% vs. 5.0% currently

 

China has been buying US beans from the PNW for November shipment all week. They bought another 1-2 bean cargoes yesterday.

 

China sold 1.7 MMT of corn at this week’s auction or 33.9% of total offered. They offered 5.01 MMT of corn

 

Philippines canceled tender for 200,000 tons of optional origin soymeal for May-Sept 2015 shipment

 

Ukraine and South American corn is cheaper than US corn

 

Ukraine Ag Min said 40% of Ukraine’s 2014 wheat crop will be used for feed vs. 25% a year ago

 

Favorable weather continues in Midwest, Northern Plains, and Canadian Prairies .

 

Improved rains in Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Wheat planting is 98.2% complete vs. 94.2% a week ago and vs. 99.5% a year ago
  • Wheat planting area is estimated at 4.1 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.2 MH and vs. 3.62 MH a year ago
  • Corn harvest is 88.4% complete vs. 83.9% a week ago and vs. 98.8% a year ago
  • Corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 27.0 MMT a year ago
  • Sunflower planting is 7.3% complete vs. 4.5% a week ago and vs. 8.5% a year ago
  • Sunflower planting area estimated at 1.4 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

10 new bean receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of CGB Utica IL. There is a total of 10 bean receipts registered.

 

2 new meal receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Des Moines IA . There is a total of 2 meal receipts registered.

 

50 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Minnesota Soybean Processors Brewster MN. There is a total of 6,732 bean oil receipts registered

 

Deliveries

  • Soybeans = 10 with the date current
    • House ADM stopped 10
    • Meal = 2 with the date current
      • Customer JP Morgan stopped 2
      • House ADM issued 2
      • Bean oil = 124 with the date current
        • Customer JP Morgan issued 18
        • House ADM stopped 23

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,335,698 open, down 8,063
  • Total beans 647,280 open, down 883
  • Total meal 325,154 open, up 10,317
  • Total bean oil 353,011 open, up 10,952
  • Total wheat 426,681 open, down 1,597
  • Total KC wheat 141,136 open, down 360

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Holiday in Argentina on Monday.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour starts on Monday and ends Thursday. Should have final estimates from the tour Thursday afternoon.
  • December wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and rice will become top step (spot month) on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Corn conditions unchanged from a week ago
    • Bean conditions unchanged to 1% higher than a week ago
    • Spring wheat conditions unchanged from a week ago
  • Brazilian corn auction to take place on Wednesday
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at 115 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE