News From The Grain Floor 8/14/14

Good morning.

 

“War is when your government tells you who the enemy is. A revolution is when you figure it out yourself.”

–          Anonymous

 

August futures expire today at noon CST. Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • August beans 192 contracts open, down 609
  • August soymeal 64 contracts open, down 189
  • August bean oil 54 contracts open, down 67

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 1 at 1047 ¾
  • CZ down a ¼ at 369 ½
  • WU up 2 at 530
  • KC WU down ¾ at 603 ¼
  • MWU down 1 at 603 ½
  • SMZ up 2.10 at 344.20
  • BOZ down 50 at 3382
  • RRU up 2 at 1267.50

 

Nov beans made a new contract low overnight of 1038 ¾

 

Sept KC wheat made a new contract low overnight of 602

 

Sept Minneapolis wheat made a new contract low overnight of 602 ½

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3362

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 21,797
  • CZ 14,592
  • WU 11,129
  • KC WU 847
  • MWU 175
  • SMZ 6,859
  • BOZ 17,165
  • RRU 238

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady higher
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil  45-55 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Stock market, gold , and silver trading both sides this morning. Crude and dollar lower

 

Nikkei up .34%

Hang Seng up .80%

Shanghai Index up .06%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +21K to 311K expecting 295K

 

China grain closings – beans down 17, corn down 2, meal down 48, bean oil down 176, and palm oil down 96

 

Malaysia palm oil closed down 43 near 5 year lows.

 

China sold 507,191 tons of US imported corn from 2011-2012 at today’s auction. 99.9% of total offered.

 

Dorab Mistry estimated Malaysia’s 2014 palm oil output at 19.7-19.9 MMT (record)
Dorab Mistry estimated Indonesia’s 2014 palm oil output at a record high of 30.5 MMT

 

Reports China buying Brazilian bean cargoes for March shipment

 

Reports China buying US bean cargoes from the PNW for November shipment. 2-5 cargoes this week.

 

Reports China is buying US sorghum

 

Reports Brazil is selling small amounts of milling wheat to North Africa

 

South Korea Kocopia bought 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec shipment

 

Pakistan bought 100,000 tons of Black Sea origin wheat this week for Oct –Nov shipment

 

Bangladesh bought 50,000 tons of Black Sea origin wheat this week for Sept shipment

 

Jordan bought 50,000 tons of optional origin (possibly Black Sea) wheat for Dec shipment

 

Israel bought 25,000 tons of feed wheat optional origin for Oct –Nov shipment

 

Israel bought 40,000 tons of corn optional origin for Oct-Dec shipment

 

Philippines in for 200,000 tons of optional origin soymeal for May-Sept 2015 shipment. Some analysts said the Philippines will buy US meal.

 

Cambodia to export 100,000 tons of rice to China

 

Analysts estimating Russia’s wheat crop at 61-63 MMT (record) vs. USDA estimate of 59 MMT

 

Great grain yields being reported in Russia and Ukraine.

 

Analysts at Summit Commodity Brokerage in Iowa said if crop weather remains favorable Nov beans will drop to $9.50 or lower.

 

36 bean oil deliveries with the date current – House ADM stopped 14

 

55 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 6,782 bean oil receipts remain registered.

  • 50 out of Bunge Decatur IN
  • 5 out of Cargill Creve Coeur IL

 

Weather remains favorable

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 338,700 tons (expecting 450,000 – 650,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 – 117,100 ‘14/15 787,800 tons (expecting 600,000 – 900,000 tons)
  • Beans –  ‘13/14 61,400 ‘14/15 1.08 million tons (expecting 850,000 – 1.15 M tons)
  • Meal –  ‘13/14 – 31,700 ‘14/15 151,800 (expecting 300,000 – 625,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 – 4,700 ‘14/15 6,700 (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 338,700 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 43 percent from the previous week and 37 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (68,900 MT), Brazil (59,000 MT), Mexico (51,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (37,000 MT), Japan (32,100 MT), and Guatemala (21,700 MT, including 20,300 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for the Philippines (30,600 MT), Thailand (3,000 MT), and Peru (1,400 MT).  Exports of 501,300 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (91,200 MT), the Philippines (58,700 MT), Taiwan (58,200 MT), Nigeria (36,000 MT), Guatemala (32,800 MT), and Peru (30,800 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales reductions of 117,100 MT for 2013/2014 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for South Korea (131,200 MT, including 128,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (73,500 MT, including 56,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (56,700 MT), Taiwan (22,300 MT), Canada (15,900 MT), and the Netherlands (8,400 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (322,500 MT), Colombia (57,400 MT), Morocco (29,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (20,500 MT), and Japan (10,600 MT).  Net sales of 787,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Colombia (284,000 MT), unknown destinations (138,200 MT), Mexico (75,500 MT), Japan (74,000 MT), Peru (69,900 MT), and Guatemala (45,000 MT).  Exports of 721,800 MT were down 33 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (212,300 MT), South Korea (131,600 MT), Japan (120,200 MT), Venezuela (70,000 MT), the Netherlands (60,400 MT), Guatemala (58,800 MT), and Taiwan (24,100 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 61,400 MT for 2013/2014 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for China (61,100 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (18,200 MT), Indonesia (17,000 MT), and Venezuela (12,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (70,000 MT) and Japan (12,100 MT).  Net sales of 1,081,800 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (640,000 MT), unknown destinations (293,500 MT), and Taiwan (115,000 MT).  Exports of 146,900 MT were up noticeably percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (60,100 MT), Mexico (27,500 MT), Japan (25,000 MT), and Venezuela (12,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 31,700 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–resulted as increases for Spain (40,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Canada (19,100 MT), the Dominican Republic (11,000 MT), Sri Lanka (6,200 MT), and Vietnam (6,100 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Ireland (86,000 MT), unknown destinations (40,000 MT), and Guatemala (5,000 MT).  Net sales of 151,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Mexico (76,900 MT), the Philippines (50,000 MT), and Indonesia (45,000 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (26,000 MT) and Vietnam (300 MT).  Exports of 136,000 MT were up 69 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (38,700 MT), Venezuela (21,500 MT), Guatemala (18,900 MT), Canada (18,800 MT), and Morocco (18,800 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales reductions of 4,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Canada (5,500 MT) and Nicaragua (700 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Chile (6,200 MT)Mexico (2,400 MT), and the Dominican Republic (2,200 MT).  Net sales of 6,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Guatemala.  Exports of 6,500 MT were down 47 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Canada (4,300 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Nicaragua (700 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,343,803 open, down 7,378
  • Total beans 648,099 open, up 6,918
  • Total meal 314,839 open, down 222
  • Total bean oil 342,065 open, up 1,590
  • Total wheat 428,834 open, up 5,102
  • Total KC wheat 141,465 open, up 496

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +82 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Aug 1-15th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • NOPA July crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate 115.823 MB , range of estimates are 113.0 MB – 117.35 MB. June crush was 118.718 MB . July 2013 crush was 116.338 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.694 billion lbs. (this will be the smallest bean oil stocks since 2004) range of estimates are 1.476-1.80 B. June bean oil stocks were 1.847 B lbs. July 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.050 B lbs.
    • No meal export estimates are given. June meal exports were 388,112 tons and July 2013 meal exports were 351,356 tons
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour starts on Monday and ends Thursday. Should have final estimates from the tour Thursday afternoon.
  • December wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and rice will become top step (spot month) on Monday August 18th
  • Brazilian corn auction to take place on August 20th.
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at noon CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE