News From The Grain Floor 8/13/14

Good morning.

 

Times have not become more violent. They have just become more televised.

–          Marilyn Manson

 

USDA announced 107,600 tons of US corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 130,000 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ½ at 1062
  • CZ up ¾ at 369 ¾
  • WU up 4 ¼ at 542 ¼
  • KC WU up 3 ¼ at 616 ½
  • MWU up 1 ¼ at 610 ¼
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 345.10
  • BOZ down 2 at 3496
  • RRU up 1.50 at 1266.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 12,116
  • CZ 10,358
  • WU 5,407
  • KC WU 803
  • MWU 244
  • SMZ 6,151
  • BOZ 5,991
  • RRU 26

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil steady mixed
  • Rice 1-2 higher

 

Dollar lower. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up .35%

Hang Seng up .8%

Shanghai Index up .1%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 229,000 expecting a draw of 2.0 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.7 MB expecting a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 2.6 MB expecting a build of 214,000

 

China grain closings = beans up 37, corn up 6, meal down 17, palm oil down 4, and bean oil unchanged

 

Malaysian palm oil down 10

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans for Sept shipment Monday night/ Tuesday morning

 

Hearing China bought 1 cargo of Argentine beans for Sept shipment Monday night/Tuesday morning

 

South Korea FLC bought 60,000 tons of optional origin feed corn for Jan shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec shipment

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Aug 2-8 total crush volume at 1,628,250 tons up 10.98% from a week ago
  • For the week Aug 2-8 total crush capacity utilization at 56.27% up 5.57% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-Aug 8, 2014) crush volume at 60,801,288 tons up 17.98% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1- Aug 8) crush volume at 42,252,491 tons up 15.94% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 8th total imported soybean stocks at 6.3837 MMT vs. 6.2732 MMT a week ago and up .63% from a year ago.
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 6.253 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.2 MMT
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Nov bean imports at 5.8 MMT , first estimate made for November

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated US 2014 corn yield at 169.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 167.4 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated US 2014 bean yield at 45.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 45.4 BPA

 

10 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Zeeland Farm Service Inc. Portage IN. 6,837 bean oil receipts remain registered.

 

99 bean oil deliveries with the date current. House ADM stopped 64 and customer JP Morgan stopped 1.

 

Favorable crop weather continues in the US and Canadian Prairies

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They have been rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into Dec for the past 4 days.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,351,371 open, up 16,062
  • Aug beans 801 open, down 488
  • Total beans 640,677 open, up 1,646
  • Aug meal 253 open, down 344
  • Total meal 315,048 open, down 21
  • Aug bean oil 122 open, down 302
  • Total bean oil 340,484 open, up 6,664
  • Total wheat 424,489 open, down 78
  • Total KC wheat 140,973 open, up 375

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 2.05 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 50,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for August futures is tomorrow . Futures expire at noon CST.
  • Weekly US jobless claims come out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +82 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Aug 1-15th palm oil exports on Friday
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour starts August 18-21St
  • December wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and rice will become top step (spot month) on Monday August 18th
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at noon CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE