News From The Grain Floor 8/12/14

Good morning.

 

I apologize there were no reports from me yesterday. I was out sick.

 

In honor of Robin Williams…

 

You don’t know about real loss, because that only occurs when you love something more than you love yourself

–          Sean Maguire as played by Robin Williams

 

“nanu nanu”

–          Mork

 

USDA report today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 at 1069 ¼
  • CZ down 2 at 366 ¼
  • WU down 5 at 541 ½
  • KC WU down 6 ¼ at 617
  • MWU down 3 ½ at 612 ¾
  • SMZ down .90 at 348.50
  • BOZ down 35 at 3489
  • RRU  up 1.50 at 1264

 

Dec bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3485.

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 13,973
  • CZ 19,481
  • WU 6,299
  • KC WU 594
  • MWU 239
  • SMZ 4,143
  • BOZ 7,910
  • RRU 8

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC Wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 30-40 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Silver, stock market, and crude oil lower. Gold and dollar higher

 

Nikkei up .20%

Hang Seng up .18%

Shanghai Index down .14%

 

China grain market closings = beans up 2, corn up 12, meal down 47, palm oil down 44, and bean oil down 78.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 13

 

China sold 82,489 tons of beans (23% of total offered) at today’s auction . They offered 357,598 tons

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 25,000 tons of bean oil for Sept- Oct shipment

 

Yesterday USDA announced 168,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Israel seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin corn

 

Israel seeks 25,000 tons of feed wheat

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board – July palm oil data report from yesterday

  • July palm oil stocks at 1.681 MMT expecting 1.64 MMT vs. 1.66 MMT in June
  • July palm oil output at 1.666 MMT expecting 1.65 MMT vs. 1.57 MMT in June
  • July palm oil exports at 1.447 MMT expecting 1.45 MMT vs. 1.48 MMT in June

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 800,000 tons of grain between Aug 1-11th.

 

335 bean oil deliveries with the date at 8/11/14

  • Customer JP Morgan stopped 7
  • House ADM stopped 163

 

Today is the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Goldman Sachs roll ends tomorrow.

 

Favorable crop weather in the Midwest continues.

 

Alberta weekly crop progress as of Aug 5th

  • 74.7% of all crops are rated good to excellent vs. 75.63% a week ago and vs. 87.4% a year ago
    • Canola crop 71.5% good to excellent 5% below five year average
    • Spring wheat 75.7% good to excellent 5% above 5 year average

 

India June-Sept. Rainfall May Be 87% of Average, Minister Says- Bloomberg

  • Rains in South India may be 87% of average
  • Rainfall in east and northeast India may be 93% of average
  • Rains in northwest India may be 76% of average
  • India Aug-Sept rains may be 95% of Average
  • India monsoon to be better in Aug and Sept than in June and July.

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn bought 6K
  • Beans sold 5K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Weekly US Crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Corn

  • Condition 73% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 64% a year ago
  • Silking 96% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Doughing 54% vs. 36% a week ago and vs. 46% five year average
  • Dented 11% vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 16% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 70% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago (expecting unchanged from a week ago) and vs. 64% a year ago
  • Blooming 92% vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average
  • Setting Pods 72% vs. 57% a week ago and vs. 65% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected) and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Harvested 6% vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 21% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 95% vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 90% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 73% good to excellent up 2% a week ago and vs. 71% a year ago
  • Headed 71% vs. 60% a week ago and vs. 70% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 52% down 1% from a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Setting bolls 83% vs. 68% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average
  • Bolls opening 7% vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

COT supplemental report from Friday afternoon. Large Spec positions as of 8/05/14 futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 81,987
  • KC Wheat short 4,863
  • Corn short 10,488
  • Beans short 58,180
  • Meal long 8,735
  • Bean oil short 13,225

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,335,563 open, down 15,966
  • Total beans 638,630 open, up 8,477
  • Total meal 315,161 open, up 2,783
  • Total bean oil 333,854 open, up 2,210
  • Total wheat 425,361 open, down 3,890
  • Total KC wheat 140,651 open, up 108

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Last trading day for August futures is Thursday . Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour starts August 18-21St
  • December wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and rice will become top step (spot month) on Monday August 18th
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at noon CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE