News From The Grain Floor 8/08/14

Good morning.

 

To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it.

–          G. K. Chesterton

 

USDA announced 113,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX unchanged at 1078
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 369
  • WU down 4 ¼ at 557 ¼
  • KC WU down 5 at 641 ¼
  • MWU down 2 ½ at 632
  • SMZ up .50 at 348.00
  • BOZ down 14 at 3591
  • RRU unchanged at 1273.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,374
  • CZ 8,434
  • WU 89,200
  • KC WU 1,269
  • MWU 168
  • SMZ 4,248
  • BOZ 5,370
  • RRU 21

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 4-6 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal steady to 1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Stock market and crude oil higher . Dollar , gold, and silver lower .

 

Nikkei down 2.98%

Hang Seng down .2%

Shanghai index up .3%

 

Concerns about the crisis in Iraq

 

Concern about the crisis in the Ukraine

 

China’s July exports +14.5% expecting +7.5%

 

China’s July imports -1.6% expecting +3.0% vs. +5.5% in June

 

China’s July trade surplus at 47.3 billion dollars expecting surplus of $27 billion vs. 31.6 billion in June

 

China grain closings = beans up 12, corn up 1, meal up 3, palm oil up 2, and bean oil down 12

 

Malaysian palm oil down 19 – one year low .

 

General Administration of Customs said China imported 7.47 MMT of beans in July up 17% from June vs. Ministry of Commerce estimate of 5.87 MMT

 

General Administration of Customs said China imported 41.68 MMT of beans between Jan-July up 20.14% from a year ago

 

General Administration of Customs said China imported 650,000 tons of veg oils in July up 22.6% from June

 

General Administration of Customs said China imported 4.25 MMT of veg oils between Jan-July down 9.18% from a year ago

 

Ministry of Commerce estimated August bean imports at 3.84 MMT

 

Hearing China bought some more US bean cargoes for December shipment.

 

Reports that crush margins in China are improving.

 

Analysts said China’s soybean stocks are at a 10 month high

 

South Korea KFA bought 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for Jan shipment

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Sunflower planting is 4.5% complete vs. 4.8% a year ago
  • Estimated sunflower planting area at 1.4 MH
  • Wheat planting is 94.2% complete vs. 91.3% a week ago and vs. 97.9% a year ago
  • Wheat planting area estimated at 4.2 MH
  • Corn harvest is 84% complete vs. 79.7% a week ago and vs. 97.8% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Said Argentina harvested a record bean crop of 55.5 MMT

 

Hearing Argentina exported 1.2 MMT of beans in July vs. 1.56 MMT in June and vs. 1.8 MMT in July 2013

 

Hearing Argentina exported 2.5 MMT of meal in July vs. 2.6 MMT in June and vs. 2.465 MMT in July 2013

 

Favorable weather in US Midwest and Northern Plains scattered rains and thunderstorms with below normal to normal temps the next 7-10 days.

 

15 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon.

 

There were 159 bean oil deliveries with the date at 8/06/14

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Wednesday. They are rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat into December.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,359,559 open, down 12,524
  • Aug beans 3,286 open , down 1,044
  • Total beans 627,271 open, up 3,238
  • Aug meal 1,453 open , down 420
  • Total meal 310,254 open , down 630
  • Aug bean oil 555 open, down 243
  • Total bean oil 333,542 open, up 4,008
  • Total wheat 434,305 open, down 4,621
  • Total KC wheat 141,843 open, down 1,525

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their July palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey, expecting
    • July palm oil stocks at 1.64 MMT vs. 1.66 MMT in June
    • July palm oil output at 1.65 MMT vs. 1.57 MMT in June
    • July palm oil exports at 1.45 MMT vs. 1.48 MMT in June
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Last trading day for August futures is August 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday Aug 15th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St
  • December wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and rice will become top step (spot month) on Monday August 18th
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at noon CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE