News From The Grain Floor 8/07/14

Good morning.

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but hasn’t the fine line between sanity and madness gotten finer?

–          George Price

 

USDA announced 113,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins today and ends on Wednesday. They will be rolling long September corn, wheat, and KC wheat into December.

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up ¾ at 1080 ¾
  • CZ down 3 at 371 ¼
  • WU down 5 ¼ at 562 ¾
  • KC WU down 4 ¼ at 652
  • MWU down 2 ½ at 640 ½
  • SMZ up .20 at 348.60
  • BOZ down 3 at 3617
  • RRU up 1.50 at 1264

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,602
  • CZ 10,290
  • WU 9,887
  • KC WU 1,337
  • MWU 165
  • SMZ 4,939
  • BOZ 6,240
  • RRU 33

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil  steady lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Crude , dollar, and stock market higher . Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei up .47%

Hang Seng down .81%

Shanghai Index down 1.38%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -14K to 289K expecting 300K

 

ECB met this morning . They left interest rates unchanged as expected

 

Malaysian palm oil unchanged

 

China grain closings beans down 6, corn unchanged, meal up 36, palm oil up 14, and bean oil up 22

 

Hearing China bought 3-5 new crop US bean cargoes for Dec shipment

 

Hearing Venezuela bought some US meal for August shipment

 

Hearing China bought Brazilian bean cargoes  for March shipment

 

China is still holding weekly corn auctions. They are offering about 5.0 MMT of corn per week.

 

Analysts estimated China’s ‘14/15 corn crop at 210-215 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 222.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 crop of 218.5 MMT

 

On Monday Argentina’s government stopped new export licenses for corn. They have already issued 12.5-13 MMT of corn licenses. Analysts estimated Argentine corn exports at 13-14 MMT

 

Brazil confirmed they will start to auction corn on Aug 15th

 

Argentina farmers unlikely to sell soybeans due to weakening peso

 

Analysts saying funds are still short about 50,000 contracts of wheat

 

14 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon . 15 receipts are registered

 

186 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon . 63 receipts remain open

 

Favorable US Midwest weather forecast

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat ‘14/15 590,900 tons ‘15/16 30,000 tons (expecting 600,000-800,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘13/14 120,900 tons ‘14/15 758,700 tons (expecting 900,000 tons -1.2 M tons)
  • Beans ‘13/14 94,900 tons ‘14/15  1.01 MMT (expecting old crop 100-200,000 tons and new crop 1.0-1.2 M tons )
  • Meal ‘13/14 252,100 tons ‘14/15 479,000 tons (expecting old crop 50-150,000 tons and new crop 250,000-450,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 15,400 tons ‘14/15 10,000 tons (expecting 0-40,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 590,900 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 26 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nigeria (222,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (85,300 MT), Mexico (68,300 MT), Chile (43,600 MT), Jamaica (30,000 MT), and South Korea (29,600 MT). Decreases were reported for Brazil (35,500 MT). Net sales of 30,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Nigeria. Exports of 415,200 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (92,000 MT), Nigeria (68,500 MT), Mexico (67,500 MT), Japan (50,700 MT), Chile (43,600 MT), and the Dominican Republic (22,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 120,900 MT for 2013/2014 were down 30 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (185,200 MT, including 194,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 18,600 MT), Israel (69,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (61,800 MT), Colombia (42,300 MT), Peru (35,200 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,300 MT), and Taiwan (24,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (287,300 MT), Egypt (68,000 MT), Costa Rica (1,700 MT), and Nicaragua (1,300 MT). Net sales of 758,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Colombia (237,000 MT), Mexico (186,200 MT), unknown destinations (108,200 MT), Japan (98,000 MT), and Costa Rica (62,000 MT). Exports of 1,071,700 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (363,200 MT), Mexico (191,300 MT), South Korea (190,300 MT), Peru (96,100 MT), Israel (69,000 MT), Colombia (56,600 MT), and Panama (19,700 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 94,900 MT for 2013/2014 were down 49 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Indonesia (72,400 MT), China (8,000 MT), Taiwan (7,600 MT), and Mexico (4,700 MT). Net sales of 1,008,600 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (700,000 MT), unknown destinations (138,000 MT), Mexico (80,800 MT), Turkey (37,000 MT), Colombia (26,500 MT), and Taiwan (16,000 MT). Exports of 53,900 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 49 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (21,300 MT), Mexico (14,900 MT), Vietnam (5,700 MT), and Indonesia (5,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 252,100 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Ireland (86,000 MT), Egypt (50,000 MT), unknown destinations (33,400 MT), Venezuela (25,500 MT), and Mexico (9,400 MT). Decreases were reported for Nicaragua (400 MT). Net sales of 479,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (349,800 MT), the Philippines (41,000 MT), and Turkey (25,500 MT). Exports of 80,700 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (14,200 MT), Canada (14,000 MT), Panama (10,500 MT), Japan (6,400 MT), and Guatemala (6,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 15,400 MT for 2013/2014 were up 21 percent from the previous week and 68 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (7,300 MT), Switzerland (7,000 MT), Canada (4,000 MT), and Jamaica (3,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (9,900 MT). Net sales of 10,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 12,200 MT were down 29 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Canada (8,300 MT), Mexico (3,500 MT), and Israel (100 MT).
  •  

Bloomberg Survey – India July imports

  • Palm oil imports estimated at 612,000 tons vs. 592,749 tons a month ago and vs. 568,254 tons a year ago
  • Bean oil imports estimated at 228,000 tons vs. 99,682 tons a month ago and vs. 234,650 tons a year ago
  • Sunflower oil imports estimated 122,000 tons vs. 155,475 tons a month ago and vs. 62,300 tons a year ago
  • Veg oil imports estimated at 1.0 MMT vs. 883,679 tons a month ago and vs. 889,493 tons a year ago

 

CONAB came out this morning with their ‘13/14 crop estimate updates .

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 85.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.27 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 78.55 MMT vs. previous estimate of 78.20 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 7.50  MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.40 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,372,022 open, down 6,283
  • August beans 4,330 open, down 776
  • Total beans 623,964 open, down 3,669
  • August meal 1,899 open, down 483
  • Total meal 310,912 open, up 1,391
  • August bean oil 798 open, down 331
  • Total bean oil 329,538 open, up 3,496
  • Total wheat 439,029 open, up 94
  • Total KC wheat 143,368 open, down 616

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +84 BCF
  • China’s July trade balance report comes out tonight/early tomorrow morning
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their July palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey, expecting
    • July palm oil stocks at 1.64 MMT vs. 1.66 MMT in June
    • July palm oil output at 1.65 MMT vs. 1.57 MMT in June
    • July palm oil exports at 1.45 MMT vs. 1.48 MMT in June
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Monday
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Last trading day for August futures is August 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday Aug 15th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St
  • December wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, and rice will become top step (spot month) on Monday August 18th
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at noon CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE