News From The Grain Floor 8/05/14

Good morning

 

I was never lost but I was bewildered once for three days.

Daniel Boone

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were

  • Bean crop 3.7 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB
  • Bean yield 44.5 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA
  • Corn crop 13.73 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB
  • Corn yield 165.0 BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 16 ½ at 1062 ¾
  • CZ down 3 ¾ at 365 ½
  • WU down 2 ¾ at 541 ¼
  • KC WU down 2 at 636 ½
  • MWU down 1 ½ at 622
  • SMZ down 5.10 at 342.70
  • BOZ down 50 at 3590
  • RRU down 3 at 1279.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,860
  • CZ 11,820
  • WU 6,617
  • KC WU 909
  • MWU 191
  • SMZ 4,770
  • BOZ 6,781
  • RRU 25

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 14-18 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 lower
  • Bean oil 45-55 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Silver, crude, and stock market lower.  Gold and dollar higher

 

Nikkei down 1.02%

Hang Seng up .20%

Shanghai index down .15%

 

China grain closings = beans up 42, corn down 8, meal up 29, palm oil up 2, and bean oil up 22.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 9

 

Rabobank Malaysian palm oil future prices forecast

  • 3Q average price estimated at 2,400 ringgit/MT vs. previous estimate of 2,500 ringgit
  • 4Q average price estimated at 2,500 ringgit/MT vs. previous estimate of 2,650
  • 1st Q 2015 average price estimated at 2,600 vs. previous of 2,700
  • 2nd Q 2015 average price estimated at 2,700 unchanged from previous

 

Chinese Economic Observer said 4.3 MH of China farmland has been affected by drought

 

China sold 69,243 tons of beans or 19.15% of total offered of beans at today’s auction. They offered 361,588 tons of beans.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week July 26th –Aug 1st total crush volume at 1,467,050 up 9.73% from a week ago
  • For the week July 26th –Aug 1st total crush capacity utilization at 50.70% up 4.50% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013-Aug 1, 2014) total crush volume at 59,173,038 tons up 17.77% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1st – Aug 1st ) total crush volume at 40,624,241 tons up 15.57% from a year ago
  • As of Aug 1st total imported bean stocks at 6.2732 MMT vs. 5.9318 MMT a week ago and up 5.75% from a year ago
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.3235 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Aug bean imports at 6.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.1 MMT
  • Estimated Sept bean imports at 4.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Oct bean imports at 4.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 soybean plantings at 31.0 MH up 4.9% from a year ago

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 94.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 91.0 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 record crop of 85.6 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said Brazil second corn crop is 49% harvested vs. 48.6% a year ago

 

More US corn farmer selling noted yesterday

 

55 bean oil receipts were canceled out of Cargill Ackley IA yesterday afternoon . 7,066 bean oil receipts remain open.

 

353 bean oil deliveries with the date current

 

Favorable Midwest weather forecast good rains the next 10 days.

 

Better than expected rains last night in northern IL and southern WI.

 

FC Stone US 2014 crop estimates from yesterday afternoon. This was the first estimates from FC Stone

  • Corn crop estimated at 14.455 BB vs. USDA estimate of 13.86 BB
  • Corn yield estimated at 172.4  BPA vs. USDA estimate of 165.3 BPA
    • IL corn yield estimated at record high 203 BPA
    • IA corn yield estimated at 186 BPA
    • Bean crop estimated at 3.865 BB vs. USDA estimate of 3.8 BB
    • Bean yield estimated at 46.0  BPA vs. USDA estimate of 45.2 BPA
      • IL bean yield estimated at a record 55.0 BPA
      • IA bean yield estimated at a record 53.0 BPA

 

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon .

Corn

  • Condition 73% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago (expecting steady to down 2% from a week ago) vs. 64% good to excellent a year ago.
    • Kentucky good to excellent down 4% from a week ago
    • Nebraska good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
    • Kansas good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
    • Missouri good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
    • Illinois good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
    • Iowa good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
    • Indiana good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • Ohio good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Silking 90% vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 88% five year average.
  • Doughing 36% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 29% five year average.

 

Louisiana corn harvest is 1% complete vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 19% average

 

Soybeans

  • Condition 71% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting steady to down 2% from a week ago) vs. 64% good to excellent a year ago
    • Kentucky good to excellent down 5% from a week ago
    • Nebraska good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
    • Kansas good to excellent down 6% from a week ago
    • Missouri good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
    • Illinois good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
    • Iowa good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • Indiana good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
    • Ohio good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
  • Blooming 85% vs. 76% a week ago and vs. 83% five year average
  • Setting pods  57% vs. 38% a week ago and vs. 48% five year average

 

Spring Wheat

  • Condition 70% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (expecting steady to down 1% from a week ago) and vs. 68% good to excellent a year ago
  • Headed 97% vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 97% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Harvested 90% vs. 83% a week ago and vs. 85% five year average

 

Rice

  • Condition 71% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 70% good to excellent from a year ago
  • Headed 60% vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 58% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Condition 53% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 45% good to excellent a year ago
  • Squaring 95% vs. 87% a week ago and vs. 95% five year average
  • Setting bolls 68% vs. 49% a week ago and vs. 66% five year average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,378,363 open, up 4,100
  • Aug beans  6,239 open, down 1,304
  • Total beans 624,050 open, up 2,594
  • Aug meal 3,021 open, down 85
  • Total meal  308,730 open, up 388
  • Aug bean oil 1,811 open, down 1,120
  • Total bean oil 327,545 open, down 2,167
  • Total wheat 438,306 open, up 2,494
  • Total KC wheat 144,807 open, down 1,269

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • US trade balance report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 300,000
    • Distillates a build of 700,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Reuters report estimates for Aug 12th USDA report should be out sometime tomorrow.
  • ECB meets on Thursday
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimate updates
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on Thursday and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into December.
  • China’s July trade balance report comes out Thursday night/early Friday morning
  • MPOB comes out on Monday Aug 11th with their July palm oil data report
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out with their Malaysian Aug 1-10th palm oil export estimates on Aug 11th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Last trading day for August futures is August 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA July crush report comes out on Friday Aug 15th at 11 am CST
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St
  • Stats Canada comes out on August 21st with their Canadian crop estimate updates
  • Sept options expire on Friday Aug 22nd . Options expire at noon CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE