News From The Grain Floor 8/01/14

Good morning.

 

Start every day off with a smile and get it over with.

W. C. Fields

 

Today is the beginning of a new month.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 10 ¼ at 1071 ¾
  • CZ down 2 at 365
  • WU up 5 ½ at 535 ¾
  • KC WU up 7 ¼ at 633
  • MWU up 5 ½ at 621 ½
  • SMZ down 4.20 at 344.60
  • BOZ down 10 at 3630
  • RRU down 7.50 at 1291

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 14,529
  • CZ 16,114
  • WU 9,585
  • KC WU 1,183
  • MWU 317
  • SMZ 4,079
  • BOZ 4,251
  • RRU 29

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Dollar , gold, and stock market higher. Silver and crude oil lower as of 745 am CST.

 

Nikkei down .63%

Hang Seng down .92%

Shanghai Index down .75%

 

July US unemployment report came out this morning

  • July nonfarm payrolls at +209K expecting +230K
  • July unemployment rate at 6.2% expecting 6.3%
  • June nonfarm payrolls revised to +298K from +288K

 

Final July mfg PMIs came out last night/this morning

  • China HSBC at 51.7 (18 month high) vs. flash of 52.0 and June final of 50.7
  • China official PMI at 51.7 expecting 51.4 vs. June final of 51.0
  • Japan at 50.5 expecting 50.8 and vs. June final of 51.5
  • UK at 55.4 (lowest in a year) vs. 57.2 in June and expecting 57.2
  • Eurozone at 51.8 unchanged from June and expecting 51.9
  • Germany at 52.4 expecting 52.9 and vs. June of 52.0
  • France at 47.8 expecting 47.6 vs, June of 48.2

 

China grain closings = beans up 23, corn up 1, meal down 21, palm oil down 10, and bean oil down 24

 

Malaysian palm oil up 26.

  • Analyst said palm oil market is oversold. Yesterday palm oil hit 11 month low

 

Hearing China bought 1 old crop Argentine bean cargo for May shipment on Wednesday night.

 

Taiwan bought 2 cargoes of new crop Brazilian beans Wednesday night.

 

JCI estimated China’s ‘13/14 soybean imports at 69.5 MMT

 

Most analysts are estimating US corn yield at 170-173 BPA

 

Most analysts are estimating US bean yield at 45-46 BPA

 

Wheat quality concerns in France and Germany due to too much rain

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Argentine soybean harvest is now complete
  • ‘13/14 soybean crop estimated at 55.5 MMT (record) unchanged from their previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 80% complete vs. 72.4% a week ago and vs. 100% complete a year ago
  • ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Wheat planting is 91.3% complete vs. 87.8% a week ago and vs. 95.3% a year ago
  • Wheat planting area is still estimated at 4.2 MH

 

Canadian wheat tour final estimates- Canada scouts surveyed crops Monday –Thursday.

  • 2014 Western Canada 2014 spring wheat yields at 43.1 BPA vs. 53.0 BPA a year ago (record)
  • 2014 Western Canada 2014 durum wheat yields at 48.1 BPA vs. 48.4 BPA a year ago
  • 2014 Western Canada 2014 canola yields at 34.3 BPA vs. 40.0 BPA a year ago
  • Said Western Canada wheat seen with high quality potential , likely high protein.

 

EIA US May Biodiesel report came out yesterday

  • May US ethanol plant production at 29.039 million barrels (436 million bushels of corn used) up 6.9% from a year ago
  • May biodiesel output at 778 million pounds down 9% from a year ago
  • Jan-May biodiesel output at 3403 million pounds down 3.7% from a year ago
  • May bean oil methyl ester output at 364 million pounds vs. 360 million a month ago and down 12.5% a year ago
  • Bean oil was used for 46.8% of May methyl ester production
  • USDA estimated bean oil use for biodiesel output at 4.8 billion pounds

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 547 with the date at 7/30/14

o   JP Morgan customer issued 109

o   JP Morgan customer stopped 202

  • Beans 0
  • Meal 0

 

Midwest and Northern Plains weather forecast favorable

  • Limited showers next 4-5 days
  • Normal to below normal temps next 4-5 days – no heat stress.
  • Moderate to heavy rains and thunderstorms middle of next week

 

Central and Southern Plains weather forecast favorable

  • Cool temps and scattered moderate to heavy showers this week and next week

 

Canadian Prairies mostly favorable weather forecast

 

India Meteorological Department said this year’s monsoonal rains are 10% below average. Two weeks ago the rains were 22% below average.

 

Euronext wheat futures fell to a new four year low

 

18 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon. 249 rice receipts remain open.

 

12 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill, Ackley IA. There are 7,216 bean oil receipts registered

 

There are still 0 soymeal and soybean receipts registered.

 

Last day of Rogers roll is today. They are rolling long Sept corn , wheat, and KC wheat positions into Dec.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,379,315 open, up 407
  • August beans 9,940 open, down 1,556
  • Total beans 608,655 open, up 3,396
  • August meal 4,332 open, down 2,177
  • Total meal 306,116 open, up 520
  • August bean oil 4,155 open, down 3,183
  • Total bean oil 329,144 open, down 4,423
  • Total wheat 439,710 open, down 1,601
  • Total KC wheat 145,008 open, up 1,997

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyor SGS will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Monday, (report delayed due to end of Ramadan holidays)
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm
  • FC Stone US crop estimates come out on Monday after the close
  • Doane’s US crop estimates come out early next week
  • Informa comes out Tuesday or Wednesday at 1030 am CST with their US crop estimates
  • US trade balance report comes out on Wednesday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on Thursday and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into December.
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE