News From The Grain Floor-7/31/2014

Good morning.

 

One-fifth of the people are against everything all the time.

Robert Kennedy

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Today is month end.

 

Today is first notice day for August futures, Deliveries

  • 0 beans as expected , there are no bean receipts registered
  • 0 meal as expected , there are no meal receipts registered
  • 999 bean oil deliveries with the date at 7/23/14 (expecting 300-700). There are 7,228 bean oil receipts registered
    • JP Morgan customer stopped 109

 

August futures open interest as of yesterday afternoon

  • Aug beans 11,725 open, down 5,975
  • Aug meal 6,564 open, down 5,682
  • Aug bean oil 7,351 open, down 3,972

 

Overnight closes

  • SX down 3 at 1078 ¼
  • CZ down 2 at 369 ½
  • WU down 1 ¼ at 526
  • KC WU up a ½ at 617 ½
  • MWU down 1 at 622
  • SMZ down 1.00 at 347.60
  • BOZ down 5 at 3634
  • RRU up 4 at 1301

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 20,114
  • CZ 8,143
  • WU 4,464
  • KC WU 505
  • MWU 205
  • SMZ 5,811
  • BOZ 7,238
  • RRU 22

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, gold and stock market lower. Silver and dollar higher.

 

Nikkei down .16%

Hang Seng up .10%

Shanghai Index up .91%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +23K to 302,000 expecting 305,000

 

China grain market closings – beans up 25, corn up 18, meal down 11, palm oil up 26, bean oil up 16

 

Malaysian palm oil down 10

 

China sold 95.7% or 477,003 tons of corn at today’s auction the corn was US corn imported in 2011-2012

 

Taiwan bought 84,800 tons of US wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

 

Argentina defaults but investor see eventual deal possible – Reuters

 

Technically Argentina did miss an interest payment and technically that is a default , but everyone is still talking.

 

Oil World estimated Colombia’s 2014 palm oil output at 1.2 MMT vs. 1.0 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Colombia’s 2014 palm oil exports at 240,000 tons vs. 185,000 tons in 2013.

 

Oil World estimated Colombia’s 2014 palm oil domestic use at 1.0 MMT vs. 948,000 tons in 2013, including 540,000 ton for the production of biodiesel vs. 503,000 tons a year ago.

 

CEC estimated 2014 South Africa’s 2014 corn crop at 14.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.9 MMT and vs. 11.8 MMT in 2013

 

CEC estimated 2014 South Africa’s sunseed production at 853,000 tons unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 557,000 tons a year ago

 

CEC estimated 2014 South Africa’s soybean production at 944,000 tons unchanged from previous and vs. 785,000 tons a year ago

 

Today is the second day of the Roger’s roll. Roll ends tomorrow. They are rolling long September KC wheat, Chicago wheat, and corn positions into Dec.

 

196 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Ag Processing Omaha, NE

 

Concerns about wet weather in France and Germany may lower wheat quality.

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘14/15 801,000 tons (expecting 350-550,000)
  • Corn ‘13/14 173,800 tons ‘14/15 1.09 M tons  (expecting 800,000-1.25 M)
  • Beans ‘13/14 187,400 tons ‘14/15 1.27 M tons (expecting 900,000-1.3 M tons)
  • Meal ‘13/14 43,700 ‘14/15 707,400 tons (expecting 550,000-750,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 12,800 tons ‘14/15 20,000 tons (expecting 0-65,000)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 801,000 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 81 percent from the previous week and 92 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Nigeria (167,000 MT), Panama (128,500 MT), Brazil (116,100 MT), Mexico (88,800 MT), Japan (74,600 MT), and the Philippines (50,000 MT). Decreases were reported for the French West Indies (6,500 MT). Exports of 419,600 MT were down 24 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (90,600 MT), Japan (70,500 MT), Taiwan (55,100 MT), Guatemala (48,400 MT), South Korea (45,300 MT), and China (27,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 173,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 40 percent from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (136,600 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from Japan and 63,000 MT switched from China), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (61,400 MT), Peru (60,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (37,000 MT), and Morocco (26,600 MT). Decreases were reported for Japan (160,100 MT), China (62,500 MT), unknown destinations (60,400 MT), and Ireland (1,000 MT). Net sales of 1,093,200 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for Mexico (431,500 MT), unknown destinations (277,200 MT), Colombia (129,000 MT), and Costa Rica (103,200 MT). Exports of 865,500 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (318,400 MT), Mexico (168,900 MT), South Korea (136,600 MT), Saudi Arabia (71,500 MT), Egypt (50,800 MT), Morocco (26,700 MT), and Panama (21,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 187,400 MT for 2013/2014 were down 17 percent from the previous week, but up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (241,000 MT), Taiwan (34,600 MT), Indonesia (25,700 MT), Colombia (9,900 MT), and Mexico (3,400 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (134,000 MT). Net sales of 1,268,700 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (770,000 MT), Mexico (128,500 MT), unknown destinations (100,700 MT), and Costa Rica (73,600 MT). Exports of 105,400 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (80,600 MT), Indonesia (9,200 MT), Vietnam (6,200 MT), and Thailand (3,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 43,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 54 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (17,700 MT), Canada (10,500 MT), the Philippines (4,500 MT), Vietnam (3,800 MT), Nicaragua (3,800 MT, including 2,900 MT switched from Guatemala and decreases of 500 MT), and Bangladesh (3,500 MT). Decreases were reported for Thailand (3,000 MT), unknown destinations (1,100 MT), and Guatemala (500 MT). Net sales of 707,400 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (263,100 MT), Vietnam (180,000 MT), and Mexico (134,900 MT). Exports of 80,800 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (35,900 MT), Canada (22,200 MT), Morocco (5,500 MT), Jamaica (4,000 MT), and Nicaragua (3,400 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 12,800 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (6,200 MT), Mexico (5,500 MT), and Nicaragua (900 MT). Decreases were reported for Morocco (300 MT). Net sales of 20,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 17,200 MT were down 59 percent from the previous week, but up 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Morocco (14,700 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), and Nicaragua (900 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,378,868 open, down 4,159
  • Total beans 605,435 open, down 5,079
  • Total meal 305,818 open, down 5,142
  • Total bean oil 333,653 open, up 2,786
  • Total wheat 441,314 open, up 3,734
  • Total KC wheat 143,091 open, up 1,043

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today  at 930 am expecting +92 BCG
  • Estimates from the Inaugural Canadian crop tour (spring wheat, durum wheat, and canola) are expected this  afternoon.
  • Tonight/Friday morning China’s HSBC July final mfg PMI comes out
  • Tomorrow  Germany, Eurozone, France, and Italy July final mfg PMI comes out
  • US July unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyor SGS will estimate July Malaysian palm oil exports on Monday, Aug 4th (report delayed due to end of Ramadan holidays)
  • Goldman Sachs roll starts on August 7th and runs for 5 days. They will be rolling long Sept corn, wheat, and KC wheat positions into December.
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Aug 12th at 11 am CST.
  • Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour August 18-21St

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE