News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Baseball is like church. Many attend few understand.

Leo Durocher

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 4 ¼ at 939 ¼
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 341 ¾
  • WZ down 8 ¼ at 499 ½
  • KC WZ down 6 ¼ at 580 ¼
  • MWZ down 5 at 560
  • SMZ up 2.70 at 312.50
  • BOZ up 4 at 3306
  • RRX down 3.50 at 1259

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,253
  • CZ 9,877
  • WZ 8,695
  • KC WZ 807
  • MWZ 322
  • SMZ 4,245
  • BOZ 7,980
  • RRX 47

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 7-9 lower
  • KC wheat 6-8 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil  steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market lower. Gold and silver higher.

 

Nikkei down .75%

Hang Seng up 1.2%

Shanghai Index up .3%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -1K to 287K expecting 292K

 

China grain closings = beans down 4, corn down 9, meal up 28, palm oil unchanged, and bean oil up 6

 

Malaysian palm oil down 5

 

Hearing China has been buying / seeking South American soybeans for February forward shipment

 

Japan bought 108,933 tons of food wheat for Nov – Dec shipment. Breakdown

  • 15,100 tons of western white US wheat
  • 11,290 tons of hard red winter US wheat
  • 27,270 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 23,833 tons of Canadian red spring wheat

 

Pakistan bought 20,000 – 25,000 tons of Australian canola for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for Jan-Feb shipment

 

India seeks 6,000 tons of coconut oil for Oct-Dec shipment.

 

Grain.gov.cn said on October 8th China’s palm oil stocks at 660,000 tons down 23% from a month ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated 2014 Russian wheat crop at 60.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT

 

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 rapeseed exports at 1.94 MMT down 12.7% from a year ago

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends on Monday. They have been rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan and rolling long Dec meal and bean oil positions into Jan.

 

Deutsche Bank roll ended yesterday.

 

No meal or bean oil deliveries

 

No receipt registration changes yesterday afternoon

 

Hot and dry in Brazilian bean areas for the next 10 days

 

Rains in forecast for southern and eastern Midwest for the next 5 days may slow harvest

 

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.1 MMT vs.  previous estimate 86.12 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn crop at 79.9 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 79.91 MMT
  • ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 76.6-78.9 MMT (first estimate of the season)
  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 88.83-92.41 MMT (first estimate of the season)
  • ‘14/15 bean exports estimated at 48.50 MMT vs. ‘13/14 exports of 46.57 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 372,400 tons  (expecting 400-600,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 784,800    (expecting 550 – 750,0000 tons)
  • Beans =  ‘14/15  923,400 (expecting 500- 900,000 tons)
  • Meal =  ‘14/15 343,200   (expecting 100 -300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil =  ‘14/15 5,100  (expecting -5,000 ton 30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 372,400 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 50 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (101,000 MT, including 32,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 18,000 MT), Taiwan (66,300 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT, switched from Nigeria), Chile (49,300 MT), Indonesia (48,000 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), Brazil (38,800 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,100 MT), and Vietnam (29,700 MT, including 27,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (111,700 MT), Panama (14,600 MT), and Mexico (9,700 MT). Exports of 668,500 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (120,000 MT), Brazil (106,300 MT), Mexico (74,100 MT), the Philippines (54,000 MT), Indonesia (49,500 MT), Chile (49,300 MT), and Colombia (34,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 784,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (230,400 MT), Japan (168,900 MT, including 128,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 10,600 MT), Peru (157,300 MT), Colombia (62,100 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and South Korea (61,900 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,100 MT). Decreases were reported for Israel (20,400 MT), Costa Rica (16,900 MT), and Canada (3,500 MT). Net sales reductions of 800 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 978,100 MT were primarily Mexico (253,200 MT), Japan (243,400 MT), Colombia (100,300 MT), Peru (96,500 MT), and South Korea (63,400 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 923,400 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for China (195,400 MT), Thailand (98,500 MT), Indonesia (97,700 MT), Turkey (78,000 MT), and Germany (75,900 MT). Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (2,400 MT) and Singapore (100 MT). Net sales reductions of 21,500 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Thailand. Exports of 972,500 MT were primarily to China (530,900 MT), Mexico (76,900 MT), Germany (75,900 MT), Portugal (71,500 MT), and Saudi Arabia (68,200 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 343,200 MT for the 2014/2015 marketing year (which began Oct. 1) were primarily for unknown destinations (80,200 MT), Thailand (60,000 MT), Canada (51,500 MT), and the Philippines (42,700 MT). Decreases were reported for Venezuela (7,300 MT, including 4,000 MT switched from unknown destinations) and the Leeward & Windward Islands (400 MT). Net sales of 12,600 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico. Exports for October 1-2 of 13,500 MT were primarily to Venezuela (6,000 MT), Canada (3,900 MT), and Mexico (2,100 MT). Net sales of 5,400 MT for (Sept. 26-30) resulted as increases for Venezuela (11,300 MT), Canada (300 MT), and Trinidad (200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (4,000 MT), Panama (1,600 MT), and Sri Lanka (1,000 MT). A total of 364,400 MT in sales were outstanding on September 30 (the end of the 2013/2014 marketing year) and carried over to the 2014/2015 marketing year. Exports of 61,300 MT were reported for September 26-30. The primary destinations were Venezuela (30,000 MT), Mexico (11,100 MT), Canada (9,900 MT), and Honduras (2,500 MT). Accumulated exports for the 2013/2014 marketing year were 10,116,600 MT, up 4 percent from the 9,712,300 MT reported in 2012/2013.
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 5,100 MT for the 2014/2015 marketing year (which began Oct. 1) resulted as increases for Peru (8,000 MT), Guatemala (4,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), and Mexico (3,100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (14,000 MT) and Nicaragua (3,000 MT). Exports for October 1-2 of 600 MT were primarily to Mexico (200 MT), Belgium (200 MT), and Canada (100 MT). Net sales of 4,400 MT for (Sept. 26-30) were reported for Canada (1,700 MT), Nicaragua (1,500 MT), and Mexico (1,200 MT). A total of 64,700 MT in sales were outstanding on September 30 (the end of the 2013/2014 marketing year) and carried over to the 2014/2015 marketing year. Accumulated exports for the 2013/2014 marketing year were 767,800 MT, down 18 percent from the 935,600 MT reported in 2012/2013

 

USDA October crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for USDA report.

 

Estimates for US 2014 corn and bean production

  • Corn production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 14.506 BB , range of estimates are 14.063- 14.958 BB. USDA September estimate was 14.395 BB and final 2013 corn production was 13.925 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 174.685 BPA, range of estimates are 172.0- 178.4 BPA. USDA September estimate was 171.7 BPA and final 2013 corn yield was 158.8 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.158 MA, range of estimates are 81.611- 84.389 MA. USDA September estimate was 83.839 MA and final 2013 corn harvested acres were 87.700 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.976 BB, range of estimates are 3.880- 4.104 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.913 BB and final 2013 bean production was 3.358 BB.
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 47.589 BB, range of estimates are 46.9- 48.8 BPA. USDA September estimate was 46.6 BPA and final 2013 bean yield was 44.0 BPA.
  • Bean harvested acres (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 83.621 MA, range of estimates are 82.449 – 84.100 MA. USDA September estimate was 84.058 MA and final 2013 bean harvested acres were 76.253 MA

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .704 BB, range of estimates are .625- .736 BB. USDA September estimate was .698 BB.
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.130 BB, range of estimates are 1.785- 2.518 BB. USDA September estimate was 2.002 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .472 BB, range of estimates are .376- .550 BB. USDA September estimate was .475 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 186.77 MMT , range of estimates are 186.00- 188.30 MMT. USDA September estimate was 186.45 MMT
  • Corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 173.65 MMT, range of estimates are 172.20- 175.00 MMT . USDA September estimate was 173.08 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 66.21 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0 – 68.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 66.91 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 196.38 MMT, range of estimates are 190.00- 198.05 MMT. USDA September estimate was 196.38 MMT
  • Corn (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate 192.02 MMT, range of estimates are 188.00- 200.23 MMT. USDA September estimate was 189.91 MMT
  • Beans (16 analysts surveyed) average estimate 90.76 MMT, range of estimates are 88.50- 96.87 MMT. USDA September estimate was 90.17 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,304,785 open, up 6,983
  • Total beans 790,860 open, up 8,109
  • October meal 1,424 open, down 744
  • Total meal 359,443 open, down 34
  • October bean oil 1,226 open, down 194
  • Total bean oil 386,088 open, up 6,427
  • Total wheat 416,465 open, down 2,397
  • Total KC wheat 157,151 open, down 505

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +108 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out tomorrow with their Sept palm oil data report. Expecting
    • September palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.05 MMT
    • September palm oil output average estimate is 1.87 MMT
    • September palm oil exports average estimate is 1.60 MMT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . See attachment for recap table for report
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • I will be on vacation all next week. There will be no reports sent from me during this time.
  • Last trading day for October futures is Tuesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday October 15th at 11 am CST
  • November options expire Friday October 24th at 115 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE