News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Health nuts are going to feel stupid someday, lying in hospitals dying of nothing.

–          Redd Foxx

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 2 ¼ at 943
  • CZ down 1 at 339 ½
  • WZ up a ½ at 506 ¾
  • KC WZ down 1 ¾ at 586 ¼
  • MWZ down 1 at 564 ½
  • SMZ up 1.60 at 314.20
  • BOZ down 10 at 3300
  • RRX up 2 at 1276

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 23,738
  • CZ 15,434
  • WZ 7,732
  • KC WZ 675
  • MWZ 217
  • SMZ 5,157
  • BOZ 8,396
  • RRX 39

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Stock market and crude lower. Dollar, gold, and silver higher

 

China is back from week long holiday today.

 

Nikkei down 1.19%

Hang Seng down .7%

Shanghai Index up 1.1%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 5.1 MB expecting a build of 1.5 MB
  • Gas a build of 2.5 MB expecting a draw of 1.0 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB as expected

 

China grain market closings = beans down 42, corn down 4, meal up 36, palm oil up 18, and bean oil up 10

 

Malaysian palm oil up 18

 

South Korea bought 81,000 tons of Australian wheat for March shipment

 

South Korea bought 25,600 tons of US milling wheat for Feb-March shipment

 

Market talk – China may have bought 1-2 MMT of Ukrainian corn over the past few weeks

 

Japan seeks 5,500 tons of feed wheat via SBS tender for Jan shipment

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US corn yield at 175.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 174.9 MMT

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US corn crop at 14.647 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.596 BB

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US corn harvested acres at 83.471 MA unchanged from previous estimate

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US bean yield at 47.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 47.1 MMT

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US bean crop at 3.947 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.880 BB

 

Lanworth estimated 2014 US bean harvested acres at 82.453 MA vs. previous estimate of 82.449 MA

 

Malaysian palm oil output may fall in October due to wet weather in Malaysia.

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India’s oilmeal exports between April – September at 950,599 tons vs. 1.66 MMT a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 82,749 tons of oilmeals in September vs. 301,717 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 868 tons of soymeal in September (record low)

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 111,027 tons of soymeal between April – Sept vs. 873,481 tons a year ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 572,352 tons of rapeseed meal between April – September vs. 417,668 tons a year ago

 

Bunge estimated ‘14/15 Black Sea main veg oil exports at 6.2 MMT vs. 6.9 MMT a year ago

 

Bunge estimated Ukraine’s main vegoil exports at 4.2 MMT in ‘14/15 vs. 4.4 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Bunge estimated Russia’s main veg oil exports at 2.0 MMT in ‘14/15 vs. 2.5 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 bean area at 21.0 MH

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 bean ending stocks at 12.6 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 sunflower output at 2.7 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 sunflower area at 1.5 MH

 

CWG estimated 2014 US bean yield at 48.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 46.9 BPA

 

Brazil wheat auction attracted little interest they offered 140,000 tons of wheat and sold less than half.

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.2 MMT vs. 2.4 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 rapeseed exports at 1.9 MMT vs. 2.2 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 domestic rapeseed use at 200,000 tons vs. 165,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Ukraine’s ‘14/15 rapeseed crush at 195,000 tons vs. 160,000 tons a year ago

 

Russia bought 26,865 tons of intervention grains making the total bought since Sept 30th at 83,680 tons.

 

Some analysts estimating Australian wheat crop at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.0 MMT

 

FranceAgrimer estimated ‘14/15 French soft wheat ending stocks at 4.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.9 MMT and up 88% from ‘13/14

 

FranceAgrimer estimated France ‘14/15 corn ending stocks at 3.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.9 MMT and up 61% from ‘13/14

 

French government said France exported 996,000 tons of wheat in July vs. 829,000 tons a year ago

 

French government said France exported 568,000 tons of corn in July vs. 650,000 tons a year ago

 

French government said France’s grain stocks as of September 1st were at 21.6 MMT vs. 20.7 MMT a year ago , including

  • 13.6 MMT of wheat vs. 13.2 MMT a year ago
  • 709,000 tons of durum vs. 900,000 tons a year ago
  • 824,000 tons of corn vs. 874,000 tons a year ago

 

As of September 1st French farmers have sold 25.7 MMT of grain vs. 24.5 MMT a year ago

 

Analysts are saying the rally in the grains has been mostly a short covering rally.

 

Some analysts were saying yesterday that the rally is due to the weak dollar, harvest delays, and minor frost damage

 

Hot and mostly dry in most Brazilian bean areas for the next 10 days

 

Rains to slow harvest of corn and beans in Midwest this week.

 

No bean oil or meal deliveries.

 

No changes to receipt registrations yesterday afternoon.

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. 3 days remain. Goldman Sachs is rolling long November bean positions into Jan and rolling long December meal and bean oil positions into Jan. Yesterday on the close

  • 6,158 Nov / Jan bean spreads traded at -8 ½ to -8 ¼
  • 4,903 Dec/ Jan bean oil spreads traded at -27 to -26
  • 2,703 Dec/Jan meal spreads traded at 1.20-2.00

 

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll. Deutsche Bank has been rolling long Nov 2014 bean positions into Nov 2015. Yesterday on the close

  • 1,845 Nov 14 – Nov 15 bean spreads traded at -22 ¾ to -21 ¼

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday.

  • Wheat bought 8K
  • Corn bought 13K
  • Beans sold 2K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

FI bot 3000 N 350-340 put spreads

FI sold 2000 Z 360 calls/bot 528 CZ

Bache bot 1800 Z’15 400-360 put spreads

ICAP bot 1000 Z 320 calls

ICAP bot 1000 H 340 puts

Tenco bot 1000 Z 410 puts/bot 980 CZ

Bache sold 1000 Z’15 350 puts/sold 300 Z’15

JPM bot 500 Z 330 puts

FI bot 1700 Z 320-290 put spreads

Dowd Wescott bot 2000 Z 320 puts/sold 5000 Z 280 puts

 

Beans:

Drax bot 2000 F 1000 calls/sold 2000 X 980 calls/sold 580 SF/bot 420 SX

UBS bot 1000 X 850 puts

UBS bot 1000 X 860 puts

Rand bot 1400 X 950 straddles

ADM bot 1000 F 870-800 put spreads

FI sold 1200 X 880 puts

Dowd Wescott sold 800 N 960 calls/bot 466 SN

ADM bot 500 X 890 puts

ADM sold 500 X 1000 puts

Bunge sold 4000 N 940-920 put spreads

JPM bot 500 H 1160 calls

FI sold 500 F 860 puts/sold 80 SF

Rosenthal sold 2000 X 880 puts

Rosenthal sold 1500 X 920 puts

RJO sold 1500 F 960-900 put spreads/sold 375 SF

Rosenthal bot 500 H 900-800 put spreads/sold 500 H 1000 calls/bot 290 SH

ICAP bot 500 X 930 puts/sold 1000 X 900 puts

 

Wheat:

JPM bot 2000 Z 500-540 call spreads

Drax bot 2000 Z 500-540 call spreads

 

Oil:

ABN sold 1000 Z 34 calls

ABN sold 750 H 35 calls

 

Meal:

FI bot 1400 Z 320-340 call spreads

FI bot 800 Z 280 puts

ABN sold 600 Z 330 puts

Drax sold 850 Z 310-300 put spreads

Drax sold 550 X 310 calls/bot 550 Z 300 puts

RJO sold 500 Z 280 puts

RJO bot 300 Z 310 calls

RJO bot 300 Z 320 calls

Screen trade bot 1300 Z 300 puts

 

Crush:

Kottke sold 6 Dec 1.10 calls at 7

Kottke sold 6 Jan 1.00 calls at 6

 

Crush quotes: (from yesterday)

OPEN                   CLOSE

OCT           1.295-1.325        1.385-1.40

DEC           1.05-1.065           1.105-1.12

FZZ            97-98                     1.02-1.035

JAN           95.5-97                  1.015-1.03

MCH         84-86                     89-89.5

MAY         76-77                     79-80

JLY            75-76                      77.5-78

AUG        76-78                       77-80

SEP           80-90                      85-90

OCT5        82.5-90                  85-89

 

Crush and oil share players: (from yesterday)

  • ADM sold 50 Dec crush at 1.095-1.10
  • No oil share pit players.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,297,415 open, up 4,080
  • Total beans 782,803 open, up 10,184
  • October meal 2,168 open, down 745
  • Total meal 359,801 open, up 4,115
  • October bean oil 1,420 open, down 243
  • Total bean oil 379,672 open, up 924
  • Total wheat 418,864 open, down 10,080
  • Total KC wheat 157,661 open, down 592

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.25 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazil ‘14/15 crop estimates . This will be the first time CONAB will estimate ‘14/15 crops
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports on Friday
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out on Friday with their Sept palm oil data report. Expecting
    • September palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.05 MMT
    • September palm oil output average estimate is 1.87 MMT
    • September palm oil exports average estimate is 1.60 MMT
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday at 11 am CST
  • I will be on vacation all next week. There will be no reports sent from me during this time.
  • Last trading day for October futures is Tuesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday October 15th at 11 am CST
  • November options expire Friday October 24th at 115 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE