News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

I love mankind; it’s people I can’t stand.

–          Charles M. Schulz

 

USDA announced 210,000 tons of corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SX up 14 ½ at 926 ¾
  • CZ up 4 ¾ at 328
  • WZ up 7 ½ at 493 ¾
  • KC WZ up 8 ¾ at 576 ¾
  • MWZ up 6 ¼ at 549 ¾
  • SMZ up 4.50 at 303.30
  • BOZ up 54 at 3296
  • RRX down 3 at 1256.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SX 19,523
  • CZ 15,352
  • WZ 7,622
  • KC WZ 895
  • MWZ 228
  • SMZ 4,643
  • BOZ 6,721
  • RRX 73

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 13-16 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 8-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal 4.00-5.00 higher
  • Bean oil 50-60 higher
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Dollar lower. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 1.16%

Hang Seng up 1.1%

 

China is still on holiday until Wednesday

 

Malaysia is closed today for holiday.

 

Thailand bought 120,000 tons of Black Sea origin wheat for December shipment

 

Oman bought 60,000 tons of German wheat for Jan shipment

 

Hearing China is eyeing South American bean cargoes for March-April shipment.

 

Oil World said Brazil produced 1.9 MMT of biodiesel between Jan-August 2014 vs. 1.7 MMT a year ago.

 

Oil World estimated India’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 10.3 MMT vs. 8.8 MMT in ‘13/14

 

Argentina Ag Min said forecast for rains in Argentina’s main wheat growing areas could cause flooding and threaten crop yields.

 

Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s wheat area at 4.5 MH vs. Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimate of 4.1 MH

 

Brazil to auction wheat this week.

 

Today is the third day of the Deutsche Bank roll. DB roll ends on Wednesday. On Friday 2,523 Nov 14-Nov 15 spreads traded on the close at -22 ¾ to -20 ¾

 

Wet weather in parts of US Midwest may have delayed harvest.

 

Frost over the weekend in Midwest caused concerns over potential crop damage

 

Brazil forecast mostly dry with above normal temps the next 7-10 days.

 

No bean oil or meal deliveries.

 

No receipt registration changes on Friday afternoon.

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positons as of 9/30/14. Futures and options combined.

  • Wheat short 86,185
  • KC wheat short 13,880
  • Corn long 19,257
  • Beans short 78,808
  • Meal long 13,722
  • Bean oil long 3,807

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,288,543 open, down 1,551
  • Total beans 773,098 open, down 64
  • October meal 3,351 open, down 1,245
  • Total meal 351,858 open, up 1,298
  • October bean oil 2,194 open, down 523
  • Total bean oil 374,823 open, down 4,131
  • Total wheat 425,647 open, down 1,105
  • Total KC wheat 155,989 open, up 483

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting
    • Corn harvest 19-25% complete
    • Bean harvest 19-25% complete
    • Bean conditions unchanged from a week ago
    • Corn conditions unchanged from a week ago
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and ends Oct 13th. They will be rolling long Nov bean positions into Jan
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their Brazil ‘14/15 crop estimates . This will be the first time CONAB will estimate ‘14/15 crops
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-10th palm oil exports on Friday October 10th
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board will come out on October 10th with their Sept palm oil data report.
  • USDA crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Friday October 10th
  • Last trading day for October futures is Tuesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST.
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Wednesday October 15th at 11 am CST
  • November options expire Friday October 24th at 115 pm CST.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE